Strategic Implications of Understanding Supply and Demand

[samson]

Originally posted by solo under "How Supply and Demand ..."

The knowledge of wildcarding has open a new realm of strategy. At the moment, it appears to me that when a supply wildcard hits its own list, it will be very likely for it to stick there for a long time, especially if it is one of the higher valued commodities, like wine, silver or gems. They don't seem to go through so many adjustments in the earlier half of the game. With dye, hogging spot #1, and when the demand commodity occupys the middle position of deamnd lists, there is only one position the supply wildcard can have on the DQ list in order to show up on the demand list. If it can't show up there, it can not leave the supply list, right?

It looks to me that one would want cities with a high quality supply commodity and with a frequently shifting demand one. If the high quality supply commodity is used to establish the first trade route, then it should become a valuable participant in an alternating supply situation, later on. A volatile demand commodity is apt to set up alternating supply sooner.

Another idea might be to select city sites where hides will be the supply commodity, to take advantage of its unique behavior.

Exactly! I was just thinking that we should start a new thread to discuss the strategic implications of understanding Demand and Supply. Here it is.

[samson]

With dye, hogging spot #1, and when the demand commodity occupys the middle position of deamnd lists, there is only one position the supply wildcard can have on the DQ list in order to show up on the demand list. If it can't show up there, it can not leave the supply list, right?

Not quite. Remember, the demand wildcard can mask the commodity in the 2nd demand position which could also be the Supply wildcard. And as I learned from Elephant's London problem, if both wildcards are the same, it is asserted on the demand list, not the supply list.

However, your idea of founding cities with valuable commodities for supply wildcards is a good one. To make it work though involves understanding the Demand Quotient formula for the commodity you want to persist on the supply list. From the DQ you can choose cities with terrain and other factors that minimize the commodity's demand. This will keep it off the demand list and on the supply list.

[solo]

It's too bad that we are limited in choosing good SSC sites by the necessary specials. However, during past games, these sites have provided decent commodities to work with, anyways.

It will certainly be worth while maintaining complete S/D lists for an SSC and other important cities. Having some control over the timing of new appearances and over which commodities appear will be much more fun than just hoping and waiting for good changes to occur!

[samson]

It's true that SSC sites are chosen mainly for resources. But knowing in advance what commodities it will supply (even before you've discovered trade) can be used to found trading partner cities on other continents with complimentary demands. For example, knowing your SSC will supply Gold would allow you to found a trade partner city whose map coordinates guarantee it demands Gold.

Or take Gems, which can be a supply wildcard and whose demand is also determined by location. By solving both formulas simulataneously, you can derive a list of locations which never demand Gems and which have a Gems supply wildcard. This means that they must supply Gems. Then you can set up the trade routes in a way to provide a continous self-refreshing Gems supply. At least until you reach 32 techs and the wildcard formula changes.

[DrFell]

I could use knowledge of supplied goods in MP games. One of my most often used strategies is the 'caravan rush', building large numbers of caravans and sending them to an off-continent trading partner. Having better knowledge of supply/demand would really help as I could pick out city spots more likely to supply valuable goods. Also, knowing the Chinese supply silk more often than the avarage civ might make them one of my future MP favorites. I'm going to have to test them out more often.

[solo]

Yes, I am liking very much how the precious metals and gems can be guaranteed by picking the right city coordinates. To be able to predict in advance, opportunities for the most profitable alternating relationships, rather than just obtain them by chance, is good news.

[samson]

I think there are two areas of application of Supply and Demand theory to strategy. The first is in choosing the location of cities. Knowledge of what commodities the city will supply and demand, based mainly on static factors such as terrain and location, could be as important to site selection as terrain, resources, and trade potential. Of course to make the calculations of the supply and demand quotients practical, we're going to need a little tool that can derive the lists and wildcards quickly from input parameters.

The second area of application is incorporating knowledge of the dynamic determinants of Supply and Demand (tech acquistion, city growth, trigger events) into long range planning: choice of tech path, scheduling of WeLoveDays, caravan delivery timing, etc. Although complex on a civ-wide basis, such calculations are doable with large impact cities such as an SSC. For challenges like OCC or early landing, the influence of Supply Demand theory could be significant.

On a practical note, it seems that the deliberate founding of cities that supply Uranium can be achieved by determining what combination of factors results in a supply list of fewer than three commodities. After Nuclear Fission is discovered, these cities will always supply Uranium.

[solo]

Yes, clever, get the one you want on, by making sure none of the others are eligible!

[Elephant]

Seems like the SSC can still be founded on a 3 or 4 special group, but we want to be careful in where we found the "caravan feeder" cities in the neighborhood. We will not be able to change the continent or hemisphere early in the game, but we can select or modify terrain and choose exact tile location to try to optimize those nearby cities.

[Elephant]

Practical Application of Supply/Demand Issues:

I'm playing GOTM23 from CFC as an OCC. My city was founded at 18,4 on Plains, with only one other Plains and one Tundra squares in city radius. The Tundra is MuskOx (Fish-special), there are also one Fish and two Whales in radius. The game is on Normal 50x80 map, Emperor level, 2 settlers, #6 civ/Greeks, continent number 3, 2 tiles. At AD1 I am at 6 citizens.

My starting Supplied commodities were Beads, Salt, Oil. I discovered Trade in 575BC. I have built 2 caravans, Beads and Salt, working on a third now. Don't want to make Oil if I can help it.

Questions: Is there any way to force Oil off my Supply list before building the next caravan? Or anytime in the near future? I'd love to get Dye or Hides, but that does not look promising from the formulas.

Also, Samson, have you looked at the issue of getting a repeat Supply, where it does not become unavailable the first time you build it? Seems like Hides often does that, but it has happened at other times.

[samson]

Questions: Is there any way to force Oil off my Supply list before building the next caravan? Or anytime in the near future?

You need to run the numbers to get the SQs and DQs for all commodities. Find another commodity with a high SQ and figure out how to boost it above Oil. Perhaps there's already one with a higher SQ on the Demand list. Then you'll need to lower its demand below its supply quotient to flip it over to the supply side.

Also, Samson, have you looked at the issue of getting a repeat Supply, where it does not become unavailable the first time you build it? Seems like Hides often does that, but it has happened at other times.

If by "repeat supply" you mean it doesn't become unavailable when built, only Hides does that. It's a unique property of Hides that it never becomes unavailable when on the supply list. If you think you've seen other commodities behave that way, I'd love to see you post a save of it.

[Elephant]

I am not confident in my math, but I could not figure a way to FORCE another commodity beyond growing the city. I grew the city to 23 and Gold showed up on my Supply list. I ran the numbers for that and in hindsight can see what I missed. The interesting thing is that I have been able to make 3 Gold caravans so far. I had made and delivered the Oil caravan for a third route previously. The extra Gold openings seemed to coincide with dumping a pile of food caravans into a wonder.

[Elephant]

Salt showed up again after a while, then Beads and finally Gold again. Each of them is () after delivery, but something opens up after a few centuries or a dump of stockpiled food caravans into a wonder. Is this expected behavior? I can attach multiple saves from this game if desired.

Agree that Hides is the only one I have seen not get () upon delivery, but the commodities are losing the () at irregular intervals in this game. And Oil has disappeared...

[samson]

Originally posted by Elephant
Salt showed up again after a while, then Beads and finally Gold again. Each of them is () after delivery, but something opens up after a few centuries or a dump of stockpiled food caravans into a wonder. Is this expected behavior? I can attach multiple saves from this game if desired.

Agree that Hides is the only one I have seen not get () upon delivery, but the commodities are losing the () at irregular intervals in this game. And Oil has disappeared...

I don't think anything unusual is going on here. The Supply/Demand formulas should tell you why commodities come and go from the S/D lists and how to predict when they will.

The availability of commodities for supply (whether it has "()"s or not) is in your control. Commodities become unavailable either when they are in transit (i.e. after built and before delivery) or when they are participating in a trade route. Careful management of your trade routes can usually ensure that at least one commodity remains available (unless in transit). Of course, you'll need to time the delivery of your third commodity to trigger a change in a your supply list in order to get your fourth commodity, but once you've got that you should be set.

[Elephant]

So if I can change the SQ of something somehow so that a commodity that is not in a current trade route or caravan gets on the list, it becomes available despite having three existing trade routes and 1-2 caravans on the way? With an OCC the only things I can play with are number of techs and number of game turns. With new commodity caravans I can control the time of delivery. One thing that might be important is which of the three positions the delivered commodity occupies at time of making caravan and delivery. Have to test that out.

I'd still like some more "practical" advice on how to juggle the SQs over time in OCC to free up new commodities. Someone once talked about delivering in a particular order (2nd, 3rd, 1st?) as a way to free up new ones - does that work?