Edward - as I understand it, the number 8 is used as a multiplier to eliminate fractions. So a non-vet alpine has a defense of 5*8 = 40; a vet alpine has a defense of 5*8*1.5 = 60; a vet alpine fortified on a river has a defense of 5*8*1.5*1.5*1.5 = 135. The attacking alpine always has an attack of 40. Each unit rolls a die with a number of side equal to this strength; the attacker wins if his number is higher and the defender wins if his number is higher or it's a tie.

For a single combat round in the simplest, non-vet vs. non-vet case, the odds of the attacker winning are 39/80. While this seems like a pretty slight disadvantage, it becomes significant when you think that the attacker has to win 20 combat rounds before he loses 20.

Note that in the vet vs. non-vet case the single-round odds are not 39/100, as I once thought, but 39/120. If one unit is overstrength compared to the other, its advantage is effectively doubled.

These formulae were developed long ago in

this thread, and I've found them to be dependable in predicting combat results.

For a single combat round in the simplest, non-vet vs. non-vet case, the odds of the attacker winning are 39/80. While this seems like a pretty slight disadvantage, it becomes significant when you think that the attacker has to win 20 combat rounds before he loses 20.

Note that in the vet vs. non-vet case the single-round odds are not 39/100, as I once thought, but 39/120. If one unit is overstrength compared to the other, its advantage is effectively doubled.

These formulae were developed long ago in

this thread, and I've found them to be dependable in predicting combat results.

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