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Factors in choosing a civ in SP

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  • #31
    Edward - as I understand it, the number 8 is used as a multiplier to eliminate fractions. So a non-vet alpine has a defense of 5*8 = 40; a vet alpine has a defense of 5*8*1.5 = 60; a vet alpine fortified on a river has a defense of 5*8*1.5*1.5*1.5 = 135. The attacking alpine always has an attack of 40. Each unit rolls a die with a number of side equal to this strength; the attacker wins if his number is higher and the defender wins if his number is higher or it's a tie.

    For a single combat round in the simplest, non-vet vs. non-vet case, the odds of the attacker winning are 39/80. While this seems like a pretty slight disadvantage, it becomes significant when you think that the attacker has to win 20 combat rounds before he loses 20.

    Note that in the vet vs. non-vet case the single-round odds are not 39/100, as I once thought, but 39/120. If one unit is overstrength compared to the other, its advantage is effectively doubled.

    These formulae were developed long ago in
    this thread, and I've found them to be dependable in predicting combat results.


    • #32

      by Edward

      Let me see if I've got it straight.

      Is this correct?

      - Absolutely !!!! Well, now someone understand what ive done, ouf


      by Albert B
      I majored in applied mathematics and I do know about statistics and numerical analysis. Now that I understand your tables, I find them intriguing. First, each individual test of only 20 attacks leads me to believe that the “advantage” of the Mongols may well be just an anomaly. Flipping a coin 20 times should result in 10 heads and 10 tails but most of the time this will not be the case. Since the difference in the number of wins is never more than 3, I would say that there is not conclusive evidence that the Mongols have a definite advantage. However, that being said, the fact that all 4 tests resulted in a Mongol victory and even more so that the non-vet tests each resulted in a +1 victory margin while each vet test ended in a +3 differential, it makes me go “hmmmm….”.

      - I'll do extanded tests, but only with the fourth case (Vet Archer)....We'll be fixed on it. If the difference increase by 4-5 times (out of 100 attacks) ill be right, if it still equal, or worst, it reduces, i'll be wrong, what would be a disaster for my notoriety....


      by Albert B
      I have a quick question before I go off to test... In your original post about testing, rixxe, you stated that gov's must be the same. Is this just to keep the 'control' group consistent or is there some accepted advantage that a particular government has over another that I don't know about? (other than fanatics for fanaticism and vet spies for communism)

      - It's just to be sure that the situations are the same in each cases....

      Ok, i have miles of Guinness to drink tonight so i wont have the time to do it before tomorrow, no problemo,....



      ps. why am i a settler (ok, because im a newbie), & how do i have a better ranking ?!? strange....:?


      • #33

        <font size=1>Originally posted by Blaupanzer on 12-22-2000 10:05 AM</font>
        Bohlen, both have the same hit points since both are the same type of unit. Barring a terrain anamoly, implication is 50/50 would be normal. A built-in bias toward the defender would not surprise me, actually. Statistically, that part of rixxe's result is much more significant than the national bias supposedly shown in the table.

        What I'm saying is that one would usually find that a 50/50 scenario would not be the case in this instance because the AT's firepower is only 1, compared to the AT's hit points of 2. Here, the AT is able to lose a few of the "mini-battles" and still survive. If we made the AT's firepower a 2, then I would expect to see about a 50/50 split.
        [This message has been edited by Bohlen (edited December 22, 2000).]
        "Three word posts suck!" - me

        "...and I never will play the Wild Rover no more..." - Various


        • #34
          FECK!!! It seems im wrong

          Here are the results for the extented test.....

          Babylonian Vet Archer/Mongol Vet Archer
          Win Green 10 /18
          Win Yellow 44/40
          Win Red 37/34
          Lost Green 0/0
          Lost Yellow 1/1
          Lost Red 8/7

          ok, the win/lost ratio is the same, but there still something, the number of victories with the stamina bar remaining in the green zone for the mongol is higher, really strange, maybe, extended tests for another situation will be needed.....