Carvan Delivery Payoff formula

[markusf]

i don't think it can be improved to much. The problem is the trade system is riddled with as many bugs as the rest of the game.

[debeest]

When I discovered the Scrolls of Wisdom, I immediately started comparing the values I got from trade with the values predicted by the formulas there, and I found that the Scrolls formulae were thoroughly inadequate (for example, they only list demanded-commodity multipliers for about half of the commodities). The values for the ongoing trade bonus are especially inaccurate, usually about 3-6 times as high as I actually get. I've posted about this several times; I even posted actual outcomes versus predicted outcomes at one point, hoping to stimulate the Apolyton geniuses to derive better equations. While William Keenan's current formula is not entirely accurate, and doesn't even try to address the ongoing trade bonus, it is indeed a substantial improvement over the Scrolls of Wisdom formula. I thank William for his work and look forward to his continued refinement of the formula. I hope he'll be able to develop a formula for the ongoing bonus, too.

[markusf]

Originally posted by debeest
When I discovered the Scrolls of Wisdom, I immediately started comparing the values I got from trade with the values predicted by the formulas there, and I found that the Scrolls formulae were thoroughly inadequate (for example, they only list demanded-commodity multipliers for about half of the commodities). The values for the ongoing trade bonus are especially inaccurate, usually about 3-6 times as high as I actually get. I've posted about this several times; I even posted actual outcomes versus predicted outcomes at one point, hoping to stimulate the Apolyton geniuses to derive better equations. While William Keenan's current formula is not entirely accurate, and doesn't even try to address the ongoing trade bonus, it is indeed a substantial improvement over the Scrolls of Wisdom formula. I thank William for his work and look forward to his continued refinement of the formula. I hope he'll be able to develop a formula for the ongoing bonus, too.

The ongoing trade formula is correct. Just because you have a road between 2 cities doesn't mean you will get the road bonus. The bonus's only applies when you build along the optimal path. I have gotten up to size 68 routes.. There are a couple of things missing from the formula but they deal with mine improvements.

[debeest]

My experience, carefully and repeatedly observed, convinces me that the Scrolls' ongoing trade formula is far from correct. Invariably the trade bonus is much smaller than predicted. The arbitrary road-connection path requirement does not explain it. It's possible that I'm miscalculating somehow, but I've gone over it again and again, and if the error is mine, I don't see where it is. No sense arguing; I've tested it and it doesn't work for me. If others test it and it works for them, I'd like to find out what I'm doing wrong. Anybody else tested it?

[markusf]

I use it all the time to get +60 trade routes....

The only bug is Airports and your own cities (you can't get over 24 trade using a airport and your own cities)

[SlowThinker]

Originally posted by debeest
It's possible that I'm miscalculating somehow, but I've gone over it again and again, and if the error is mine, I don't see where it is. No sense arguing; I've tested it and it doesn't work for me. If others test it and it works for them, I'd like to find out what I'm doing wrong. Anybody else tested it?

Could you post a savefile?

[debeest]

If I am successful in attaching it, here is a save file from the game I'm playing now (OK, you can see that I'm no great shakes at the game). The freight from Peanut to Pinpoint will generate an ongoing bonus of 7 trade. The formula in the Scrolls of Wisdom predicts about 30 trade. The base calculation is

(49 trade + 70 trade + 4) / 8 = 15.375

Modifiers include +50% for freight versus caravan, -50% for both cities being mine, and +100% for different continents. I suspect that the figures should be multipliers rather than additive, but I don't think that matters much. This result, about 1/4 of the predicted bonus, is thoroughly consistent with my experience.

Is the formula wrong, or am I making some mistake?

If I could generate trade bonuses as high as this formula predicts, I'd sure play the game differently!

[markusf]

Originally posted by debeest
If I am successful in attaching it, here is a save file from the game I'm playing now (OK, you can see that I'm no great shakes at the game). The freight from Peanut to Pinpoint will generate an ongoing bonus of 7 trade. The formula in the Scrolls of Wisdom predicts about 30 trade. The base calculation is

(49 trade + 70 trade + 4) / 8 = 15.375

Modifiers include +50% for freight versus caravan, -50% for both cities being mine, and +100% for different continents. I suspect that the figures should be multipliers rather than additive, but I don't think that matters much. This result, about 1/4 of the predicted bonus, is thoroughly consistent with my experience.

Is the formula wrong, or am I making some mistake?

If I could generate trade bonuses as high as this formula predicts, I'd sure play the game differently!

Well your adding it wrong because only base trade counts.

(49 trade + 59 trade + 4) / 8 = 14

deduct 50% for them being yours and you end up with 7 trade.

+50% freight only applies to the cash bonus, and +100% for different continents ONLY applies for the cash bonus .

[debeest]

So, in this case I'm making a small error (15+ versus 14), and the main error is that the Scrolls formula incorrectly includes large multipliers for freight and for different continents? Are there other errors in the Scrolls formula, or does that cover it? I'd be surprised if the same-civilization penalty applies but none of the bonuses apply.

And how do you get trade routes up to 68? Even with superhighways in both cities, base trade's not likely to total much more than 130 for the two cities. Call it 132, add the 4, divide by 8, you get 17. No freight multiplier, no continent multiplier; that only leaves 50% each for road, rail, airports, and superhighways. That only gets you to 51. And does it seem likely that all those bonuses count, but not the two that I happened to have with that particular freight?

Fortunately, this can be checked, eh?

[markusf]

i will create one in cheat mode later and post it.... superhighways are needed....

[debeest]

So, markusf, you say that the freight multiplier and the different-continent multiplier apply only to the delivery payoff and not to the ongoing trade route? Do you think that the other multipliers are exactly as stated in the Scrolls of Wisdom, or are there other errors as well?

And, I'd love to see a +68 trade route. I haven't paid as much attention to trade as I ought to, but I know I've never had a trade route greater than about +15 or so.

[markusf]

I have been really busy..


In cheat mode Build 2 cities side by side. make sure each is a different civ. Then put in a superhighway in both cities, and railroad every single square between the 2 cities. that should give you +50 assuming there are no specials between the 2 cities and that both cities have all grassland or water

[William Keenan]

Personally, I have never seen a trade route over 30 in a standard, unmodified game - and I do pay close attention to these things.

When there were no formulas those found in the Scrolls of Wisdom were ground breaking. It mattered little that they were not exact becuse they were a vast improvement over blind speculation. As time pasts, the civ player evolves. He demands a greater level of clarity and accuracy then was considered necessary when the Scrolls were written.

The "Caravan Delivery Payoff" paper is about evolving the documentation to match the new generation of civ player.

[debeest]

William, have you done any work on the trade route equation?

Has anyone else seen a trade route greater than 30?

[William Keenan]

Originally posted by debeest
William, have you done any work on the trade route equation?

Yes, I am still working on it. The distace caculation continues to be my nemisis in completing. Assist my understaning, if you would, by walking me though the calculation with this example:

Rome: 50, 28
Paris: 42, 36

What is the distance?