Forced City

[Havelock Vetinari]

Tobyr: I'm not saying that it remembers the past events...I'm talking about binomial probability (the probability of an event with two possible outcomes).
Consider...after opening 20 huts, with a 5% chance at each hut, there is a 0.95 * 0.95 * 0.95.... = 0.95 ^ 20 chance that a city will not have been founded, ie a 1 - (0.95 ^ 20) chance that one would have been.
I was saying that after 20 huts therse was a 65% chance of having a city, not that the 21st hut had a 65% chance of yielding a city. Hope that clears things up.

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May you live in Interesting Times...

[Havelock Vetinari]

delete message, double post
sorry
[This message has been edited by Havelock Vetinari (edited December 04, 1999).]

[johnmcd]

Whilest attempting to my OCC for men and actual the OCC challenges recently I have been considering the forced city issue. I used to find that I would get an advanced tribe extremely rarely, every four or five games, but, whilst more aware due to this thread, I have found I seem to get many more advaced tribes on OCC. Does anyone know if the chances of an advaced tribe are related to the number of towns you have?

[DaveV]

I think the hut probablities change with the era of the game, not number of cities. I've never seen multiple barbs from a hut in the very early game (wouldn't that ruin your day?), and it seems to me (seat of the pants feeling) that the probability of barbs increases as time goes by.

If you're exploring more aggressively and knocking over more huts in OCC, that may explaing why you see more advanced tribes.

[johnmcd]

I know what you mean Dave but I don't think thats it. Certainly you only get Barbarian rather than Barbarians early doors, and, as you can't get ancient scrolls after invention that certainly boosts the chances of getting barbs. But in my normal game I am an explosive developer. I aim for at least twenty cities by AD and never stop. Every city I found must build two settlers for founding before anything else, so I do trip alot of huts.

[War4ever]

something i have noticed about advanced tribes, is that if you have less cities than the ai... you can expect more tribes from huts..... its almost as if the computer is helping to get you back in the race... i really wish it wouldn't as i need litlle help establishing cities.

However just he other day while trying out a strategy... i built both my none settlers and the next 4huts i tipped over gave me three tribes and one none settler not to shabby...plus the bonus of my tribes being on rivers.... now i wonder if this is a glitch or was i just lucky as i am not aware if one is supposed to get tribes from huts on rivers but there they were.


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War is the answer when you need to strike first.

War is the answer when you think you should strike first

war is the answer when you think others may strike first.