In response to the sabotage thing:

[debeest]

Heh. I can't find yer durn dip/spy thread any way but by clicking on your link to it. Okay, I'm not all that bright with computer stuff, but I think your thread needs all the advertising it can get.

[SlowThinker]

La Fayette,

quote: Originally posted by La Fayette on 01-09-2001 11:04 AM Dips cannot choose. Then, if you wish to destroy city walls, the worst that can happen to you is coming to the city with one dip per turn and getting three or four messages telling you that the unit under building has been destroyed. My advice would be: send one dip to have a look and tell how many improvements there are in the city (let us say n), then come back with at least n+1 dips to make sure that the walls go down.

1. It may be useful to check a city during sabotaging. Suppose an opponent have a city with 8 improvements. After 4 sabotage actions there is a 50% chance (?! look points 2 and 3) that city walls were destroyed yet: So, there is a 50% chance you will consume your last dip if you will let him investigate the city.

2. Question 12.14 of
LINK: Info: Diplomats and Spies is relevant:
What is the probability that diplomat/spy+"use her judgement" will choose to sabotage a production?

3. Do all improvements have the same probability to be chosen for a diplomat/spy+"use her judgement" sabotage?

[Crustacian]

quote: Originally posted by SlowThinker on 01-09-2001 05:42 PM I claimed at point 11.2 of LINK: Info: Diplomats and Spies that it is not cumulative It may be cumulative this way: Chance against one dip = 0.8 (80%) Chance against 2 dips = 0.8*0.8 (64%) Chance against 3 dips = 0.8^3 (^ means power) etc [This message has been edited by SlowThinker (edited January 10, 2001).]

Sorry I was not able to exhaust the archived info put forward on the subject so far, but ruoxiaohai asked and I looked for an answer in the manual rather than off the top of my head.

You say it is not cumulative, then you say it "MAY" be. Saying the chance against one dip is 80% is the same as the civ manual says 1 dip has 20% chance to thwart...6 of one/ half dozen of the other. After that it is only speculation as to exactly whats what

I know from experience it is, (to "some degree") the manual says it is.

Obviously it is not cumulative in the reasonable guess sense of:
1 dip = 20%, therefore 5 dips = 100% un stealable.
Since techs can still be stolen with even 6 dips inside this is not a correct conclusion.

But it is cumulative to some degree, and in a "practical sense" you can use this general knowledge to your advantage.

1)To simply know that the more dips you have in a city the better your chances of thwarting tech stealing

2)It is important simply to know that 5 dips or even one will not guarantee a theft will be thwarted.

3) It is simple to understand that someone wanting to steal will only go so far to do so. Well some folks anyway If you don't have some dips in vulnerable cities it will be very easy and surely worth while to those who steal techs.
If you have some dips in vulnerable cities, they may find it not worth while to steal and may actually research things for their own self

[SlowThinker]

quote: <font size=1>Originally posted by Crustacian on 01-10-2001 05:43 AM</font> You say it is not cumulative, then you say it "MAY" be.

I speak in past tense (I claimed...it is not cumulative ).

quote: <font size=1>Originally posted by Crustacian on 01-10-2001 05:43 AM</font> Obviously it is not cumulative in the reasonable guess sense of: 1 dip = 20%, therefore 5 dips = 100% un stealable. Since techs can still be stolen with even 6 dips inside this is not a correct conclusion.

1 dip = 20% chance to thwart,
1 dip = 80%(100%-20%) chance to steal,
2 dips = 64% chance to steal,
...
5 dips = 0.8 power 5 *100% (it is not zero) chance to steal,
therefore 5 dips is not 100% chance to thwart

So it MAY be cumulative that way.

[This message has been edited by SlowThinker (edited January 10, 2001).]

[La Fayette]

ST
Thank you for giving me a link to your thread about dips and spies. I can understand why you get bored testing!
It's very good work and will proove to be very useful, like SG's Great Library.
I got bored bribing the other day, but I'll try to contribute as soon as I recover .

[La Fayette]

ST,
I must answer your post on this thread in the meantime.
My feeling is that when a dip attempts sabotaging he destroys:
1) the unit under building (if there are shields in the box),
2) then improvements other than city walls,
3) then city walls.
(but this is a feeling, not a test; maybe it's random, as you suggest, with a high probability for unit under building and a very low one for walls).
Come on guys! Help us testing!



------------------
aux bords mystérieux du monde occidental

[Scouse Gits]

La Fayette - I think there is a much higher probability that the diplomat will destroy the City Walls later rather than sooner. There have been times when I've packed a city with them only to find I need one or two before I destroy the Walls.

It is probably the reason we all keep playing ... the game always has a few surprises!

---------

SG (2)

[La Fayette]

SG,
Mind you, I'm going to destroy hundreds of improvements to-night with dips and spies and my beloved vet spies!
Results to-morrow (unless I get stuck under the rubble).

[La Fayette]

The proud egyptian city of Memphis has been under severe assault last night. 300 improvements have been destroyed by hordes of babylonian spies and vet spies.
Here are the main results:

1) Attack by 6 spies (non vet, use their judgment)
(since there are 5 improvements in the city, plus one under building)
Losses (after 25 attacks, which was judged to be enough, since the pattern was quite clear): 75 spies captured, 75 spies unharmed and promoted to veteran status.
This means exactly 50% losses.

Results (after 25 attacks):
Bank (ub) : 9, 5, 1, 2, 2, 6, =25
Barracks :12, 9, 4, 0, 0, 0, =25
Temple : 2,10, 9, 4, 0, 0, =25
Market Pl : 1, 0, 9,12, 3, 0, =25
Library : 0, 0, 0, 6,15, 4, =25
City Walls : 1, 1, 2, 1, 5,15, =25

(9 column one means that the bank under building was destroyed 9 times by spy #1)

The pattern is clear: almost a diagonal matrix, meaning that spies destroy almost according with the list of improvements, with a slight random factor (and a less clear pattern for the improvement under building).

2) Attack by 6 vet spies (use their judgmeent)

Losses (after 25 attacks): 43 vet spies captured, 107 unharmed.

Results:

Bank (ub) : 8, 4, 4, 2, 1, 6, =25
Barracks :12, 9, 4, 0, 0, 0, =25
Temple : 2,10, 9, 4, 0, 0, =25
Market P : 1, 0, 9,12, 3, 0, =25
Library : 0, 0, 0, 6,15, 4, =25
City Walls : 1, 1, 2, 1, 5,15, =25

(same pattern).
I intend to destroy some more improvements during the week-end. Results next week.

ST
Of course I put the main results on your thread when the fight is over .




------------------
aux bords mystérieux du monde occidental

[La Fayette]

The proud egyptian city of Memphis has been under severe assault last night. 300 improvements have been destroyed by hordes of babylonian spies and vet spies.
Here are the main results:

1) Attack by 6 spies (non vet, use their judgment)
(since there are 5 improvements in the city, plus one under building)
Losses (after 25 attacks, which was judged to be enough, since the pattern was quite clear): 75 spies captured, 75 spies unharmed and promoted to veteran status.
This means exactly 50% losses.

Results (after 25 attacks):
Bank (ub) : 9, 5, 1, 2, 2, 6, =25
Barracks :12, 9, 4, 0, 0, 0, =25
Temple : 2,10, 9, 4, 0, 0, =25
Market Pl : 1, 0, 9,12, 3, 0, =25
Library : 0, 0, 0, 6,15, 4, =25
City Walls : 1, 1, 2, 1, 5,15, =25

(9 column one means that the bank under building was destroyed 9 times by spy #1)

The pattern is clear: almost a diagonal matrix, meaning that spies destroy almost according with the list of improvements, with a slight random factor (and a less clear pattern for the improvement under building).

2) Attack by 6 vet spies (use their judgmeent)

Losses (after 25 attacks): 43 vet spies captured, 107 unharmed.

Results:

Bank (ub) : 8, 4, 4, 2, 1, 6, =25
Barracks :12, 9, 4, 0, 0, 0, =25
Temple : 2,10, 9, 4, 0, 0, =25
Market P : 1, 0, 9,12, 3, 0, =25
Library : 0, 0, 0, 6,15, 4, =25
City Walls : 1, 1, 2, 1, 5,15, =25

(same pattern).
I intend to destroy some more improvements during the week-end. Results next week.

ST
Of course I put the main results on your thread when the fight is over .

[Campo]

One question about basing dips/spies in a city to prevent sabotage: Should they be sleeping or fortified, or doesn't it matter?

[Alinestra Covelia]

As my response to the sabotage thread, I would merely like to point out that ruoxiaohai is probably a compulsive thief when he is at home. Also that counterespionage is futile against him.

[SlowThinker]

La Fayette,
very good work!

quote: Originally posted by La Fayette on 01-12-2001 11:22 AM ST Of course I put the main results on your thread when the fight is over .

Good idea: I noticed this thread, but, in general, I may be engaded by other things, so it would be proper act to notice me about any new result.

I go ski for next week, I will upgrade Post1 then.

[East Street Trader]

In broad terms, therefore, a vet succeeds (and survives) two third of the time, a greenie half.

Also looks as though the building/unit/wonder under construction doesn't get hit a second time once the production box is empty. (I have a feeling this has happened to me tho' - not when there is nothing left, or nothing but SDI, I mean. Can't place when tho'.)

There is a weighting towards less valuable improvements save that city walls have a generally lower probability but that lower probability can come in from hit one onwards.

All this accords with what unsystematised experience would suggest. Very nice to have it confirmed more authoritatively tho'.

Allez la France - keep up the good work.

[East Street Trader]

SlowThinker

Just got back from a fortnight in Murren - awesome despite poor snow.

Is there skiing in the Czech Republic?