Nuts and Bolts.....

[Velociryx]

Nuts and Bolts – Why the Rover Rush Works

Almost all successful Rover Rushes that I have ever seen or participated in are accomplished with Impact weapons, and with something right at four (4) rovers. Why? Because there is a very definite window of opportunity where it works, and as the game continues to unfold, it becomes increasingly less likely that the tactic will succeed. One cannot call the Rover Rush a “strategy” per se, because its implementation is purely tactical in nature.

Here’s the math behind why it works:

Consider a base assault in the early game. The attacker has built a transport and has a matched pair of 4x-1-2 (Nerve Gas) Rovers inside. He finds some unfortunate in the early game with comparable techs. To that end, we’ll give this fellow a synth garrison, a hastily upgraded former in the area (upgraded with synth armor), and a perimeter defense (this assumes that the defender spots his roving opponent and hastily builds one) Because the attacker is well…attacking, we’ll assume that he’s been in a few scrapes, and has three (3) levels of morale above his defensive counterpart, giving him a 37.5% combat modifier against his nemesis in synthmetal. Further, we’ll assume that the defender gets no modifier at all.

The math breaks down thusly:
Attacker: base 4 * .5 (gas) * .375 (morale modifier) = 8.25 total attack strength
Defender: base 2 *1.25 (base + perim) * .25 (sensor in rage) = 5.625 total defense strength

The attack proceeds as follows:
Rover #1 moves toward the base, attacks, kills the synth garrison easily. Base loses half its pop.
Rover #2 moves toward the base, attacks, kills the former, and has 1/3 or 2/3 moves left, enabling it to move in and capture the base, assuming there’s a base left to capture.

Net gain for the attacker: A Size One (1) base (maybe), and two dead enemy units with no losses for them.

Ouch.

However, let us assume that the attacker did not find anybody to pummel until he got missile techs, and let’s see how things shake out.

We’ll give our stalwart attacker two transports and four rovers, all nerve gas equipped as before. Once more, we’ll give the attacker three morale upgrades, while the defender gets nothing in the morale department (even though by this time, the defender is almost certain to have at least a 12.5% modifier thanks to worm fights, the presence of a monolith, or SOMETHING, but nevermind that. We’ll assume the defender is a total wuss, and that the only thing keeping him from having negative modifiers is the presence of the CC in the base). However, the defender DOES get ECM and comparable armor (Plasma). We will not, however, rub it in and give the defender pulse too….

As far as base defenders, we’ll assume that by now each base has two garrison units, and that when the defender spots the attacker, he upgrades an infantry based probe to plasma armor/ECM, and does the same with a nearby former (minus the ECM for lack of money….gotta make it as realistic as we can, and in all probability the defender would be unable to afford ECM <I>and</I> Plasma armor for both his hastily upgraded units….and come to think of it, I’m not even sure you CAN put ECM on a Former….I usually put “Trance” on them.

Attacker: Base 6 *.5 (gas) * .375 (morale) = 12.375
Defender: Base 3 * 1.25 (base + perim) * .5 (ecm) * .25 (sensor in range) = 12.6265

The attack proceeds as follows:
Rover #1 attacks, severely messes up Garrison #1, but dies.
Rover #2 – See above to Garrison #2
Rover #3 – Manages to kill an armored former, but is sorely messed up from it (the former is armored, but does not have ECM, and thus is unable to pull a victory out against an X-Missile rover…sad but true)
Rover #4 – See above, losing to a wicked probe team

On the defender’s turn, the Infantry based probe team mind controls the enemy rover, and the attack ends. The window has officially closed on the rover rush. Any further attempts will (predictably) end with the same result against this opponent.

Net results of the battle: Attacker loses three (3) X-rovers to combat, and loses its fourth to mind control. Defender loses a former.

Note in this case that the attacker <I>had</I> local superiority and 2:1 odds (4 attackers, and infiltration would reveal the presence of 2 defenders, the probe team and former not having been upgraded yet), making it look like a reasonable attack when the forces were dispatched.

Further Considerations:
Let’s take a closer look at the second scenario. I’m at work, no game in front of me, so I’m not sure of the costs here, but IIRC, a plain vanilla transport costs 30 minerals, and I’ll ballpark an X-Missile Rover at….27? If that’s close, it means that the total mineral cost to build the attack force is somewhere near 168 minerals. We’ll even be generous, and assume that all but one of those six units is a “freebie” requiring no support costs, and we’ll ballpark total travel time to the battle at ten turns, which adds another ten minerals of cost to the attack force, bringing it to a whopping 178 minerals. That’s a pretty big opportunity cost in terms of infrastructure that could have been built.

But what about all the minerals and money spent by the defender?!

That’s a fair question, and I would respond to it thusly:
Half of the defender’s forces (Infantry-Based Probe and Former) is stuff that the attacking player would have built for his bases as well, making those items a “push” when looking at overall cost. In all probability, the attacking player has at least a token garrison unit as well (Police?), making one of the defender’s two garrisons also a “push” where costs are concerned. So…the only “expense” the defender incurred would be the construction of the second garrison, the Perim. Defense, and the upgrading he did on his units…the cash FOR those upgrades coming entirely from running a Market economy—which, at this point in the game, the attacker is surely NOT running! Now, I’m not in front of the game at present, and I’m sorry to say that I don’t have the cost of a Perim. Defense memorized, but I think I can safely get away with saying that the Perim. Defense AND the second garrison cost something less than 178 minerals.

Even if we assume that empire wide net mineral counts are identical for both players in this example (which they’re almost assuredly not!)….even if we assume that a Perim. Defense and 2nd Garrison costs fully HALF of what the attack force cost, that still means that the defending player has a “windfall” of 89 minerals over and above what the attacker has, which is….what? One mineral shy of three supply crawlers? So…let’s assume that while the attacker was making the attack force, the defender churned out three more crawlers in that timeframe, and has them each harvesting two minerals (probably four each, given the techs available in the attack, but we’ll be polite and say it’s just two). Three crawlers, two minerals each, for the ten turns it took the attack force to get shipped out and arrive at the scene of the battle, which amounts to <I>another</I> 60 mineral advantage for the defender, not to mention 6 more every turn they stay alive after that….

Don’t get me wrong….I’m not saying everybody’s game should be all about playing nice and transcending….sometimes attacking is the best, the only answer you have. My point is now what is has been from the start….Attacking has a variety of “hidden” costs associated with it, and an unsuccessful attack can set you back more than you realize. Also, a well prepared defender is not the guy you want to Rover Rush, and the math supports that. (Well…I think it does anyway….I’ll be the first to admit that I’m not big on crunching numbers, and I <I>am</I> at work, so if some of the numbers are off, please feel free to correct me!)

-=Vel=-
(goofing off at work!)

[big_canuk]

Re: Nuts and Bolts.....

Originally posted by Velociryx
Nuts and Bolts – Why the Rover Rush Works

...please feel free to correct me!

Ok, but I wouldn't have dared, if you didn't ask me.

First of all, let me basically agree with Vel. I would advance and/or increase the window a bit, starting it with 2-1-2 rovers as a viable attacker against the scout, or maybe synthmetal defender. A 2x-1-2 rover is definitely viable, especially as the second attacker. Also, the very beginning of 6 attack, before silksteel and or pulse armour, rover rushes are still usually viable. The real thing that kills the rover rush, is airpower. Then AAA and aerospace complexes, and tachyons shift the preferred attack unit to the elite infantryman, or marine.

The math works out just a bit more favorable for the attacker, because perimeter defenses only increase base defense from 1.25 to 2, not to 2.25, as Vel has described.

Also on the math, I added the 1 to all his multipliers, that he just assumed to be there.

So:

For the very early rush:

Attacker: base 2 * 1.375 (morale modifier) = 2.75 total attack strength
Defender: base 1 *1.25 (base) * 1.25 (sensor in range) = 1.5625 total defense strength

The attack proceeds as follows:
Rover #1 moves toward the base, attacks, kills the scout easily.
Rover #2 moves toward the base, attacks, kills the former, and has 1/3 or 2/3 moves left, enabling it to move in and capture the base, assuming theres a base left to capture.

For the 2x assault:

Attacker: base 2 * 1.5(gas) * 1.375 (morale modifier) = 4.125 total attack strength
Defender: base 2 *1.25 (base) * 1.25 (sensor in rage) = 3.125 total defense strength

The attack proceeds as follows:
Rover #1 moves toward the base, attacks, kills the synth defender.
Rover #2 moves toward the base, attacks, kills the former, and has 1/3 or 2/3 moves left, enabling it to move in and capture the base, assuming theres a base left to capture.

For the 4x attack as described by Vel, corrected for proper perimeter defense modifier:

Attacker: base 4 * 1.5 (gas) * 1.375 (morale modifier) = 8.25 total attack strength
Defender: base 2 * 2 (base + perim) * .25 (sensor in rage) = 5.0 total defense strength

The attack proceeds as follows:
Rover #1 moves toward the base, attacks, kills the synth garrison easily. Base loses half its pop.
Rover #2 moves toward the base, attacks, kills the former, and has 1/3 or 2/3 moves left, enabling it to move in and capture the base, assuming theres a base left to capture.

For the missile attack, as described by Vel, with the corrected perimeter defense modifier:

Attacker: Base 6 * 1.5 (gas) * 1.375 (morale) = 12.375
Defender: Base 3 * 2 (base + perim) * 1.5 (ecm) * 1.25 (sensor in range) = 11.25

As we can see, the attacker still has a slight advantage. We would have to add a bit more moral to the defender, and/or add pulse armour, for the defender to prevail. Also, that probe upgrade would not be advisable, because it would not work. Armored probes die with the last military unit, just like unarmored ones. They are still very useful, but only as unstacked defenders outside a base, or as lone defenders in a base.

Once we get to SFF, the rover "rush" doesn't work as well, because we have infiltration by then, and the transport will be sunk, or bases in range will be more heavily defended. (or attackers destroyed before they have a chance to attack.)

edited for typos

[Velociryx]

Thank you, Big C! Being at work and away from the game makes it tough for me to get the exact figures, but I knew that the core notion was sound. Precisely because I’m writing this separated from the game, I built in a number of “cushions” in the event that my numbers were off, and now I’m glad I did! First cushion revolves around the total lack of morale modifiers for the defender. How many games have you ever played where you didn’t have at least a few veteran worm fighting units? And as you well know, Market’s cash makes it entirely possible to upgrade pretty much every unit you have to whatever configuration you desire, which would include pulse.

Good catch ‘bout the probe team! Easy enough to shuffle in a crawler or another former to take his place, and for the big finish, you could always send in a rover prototype (who is guaranteed to have a morale bonus) riding to the rescue of the base under fire—which is one of the primary reasons I recommend prototyping on rover chassis….to give you a highly mobile attacker/defender!

I agree and disagree about the viability of laser rovers on the attack tho. Seems to me that this is only workable if you start on the same continent with another faction. Given the time required to build a transport and get ready to send the force out, you’ll almost assuredly have Impact weapons by then anyway, which doubles your firepower! However, you’re quite right (and the math bears it out) that if you DO meet somebody that early, you can cook ‘em good!

I’m glad to see though, that my numbers were pretty close. Not bad for guesstimating at work!

-=Vel=-

[Ogie Oglethorpe]

Vel and Big C,

Good synopsis on the early rover rush model. The crux of the matter is just how long this window of opportunity remains viable. Vel you indicate the window is really whilst attacker has impact and mobility techs minimally with real need for HIC as well. Big C says and I think he has a point here that it exists from laser and mobility techs vs. synth up until missile tech pre-airpower.

To my mind in terms of game time and tech discovery rate this means up until 2170 ish perhaps 2180's latest. I contend that with this type of time frame getting the requisite techs (i.e. those above plus flexibility), transports, and rovers in place is a very difficult proposition. More likely is the rover rush from the same continent as opposed to an amphibious assault. Moreover tho' what this really means is a concerted effort to concentrate on techs that detour you away from making a viable war making machine as the game moves along. You've essentially crippled your infrastructure in favor of the quick blitzgreig, if it fails you are in a position of catchup. 'Specially against a number of intelligent opponents (read non AI).

Anyway. The early rover rush is a cool gamble to pull off if you can find a nice juicy submissive waiting for the plucking but more often than not your better off making sure you are well prepared rather than going off half-cocked.

[The Commodore]

Which is why, if I want to go rover rush, I'll chose Pirates as first choice. It is seldom used, but the fact that they begin with Flex and Mobility make them great rover rushers.

[Vytae]

Nerve Gas

Correct me if im wrong,but arent Gas pods considered an atrocity? In an all human game this wouldnt matter but if theres 2 or more AI's this could be a problem. And 2nd in the first scenario you kill the base,you would still have the fire power to take the base without the pods (although you would have a rover dead and/or a couple needing some repair prolly) and that way you would have a springboard in which you could turn your rover rush into conquerer's instead of killers and take over,rather than take down your foe's empire. Why not do this rather than scorched earth?

[JustinSane]

First off, I'd like to say that I have the utmost respect for Vel and all the other forummers who have posted in this thread. Though I'm quite newly registered, I've lurked for close to a year now and I'm fully aware you guys are all much better at this game than I am!
That said, I wonder if this analysis of the rover rush might fail to take into account a few different factors. For instance, the differing faction attributes and likely SE settings at this time frame have an effect. (Builder is probably running wealth, and might not have CC's up yet to eliminate the morale hit) Also, I'm not sure our builder would have perimter defenses yet. The attacker needs 6 techs for the impact rovers and transport. We're also assuming that centauri ecology is needed for both players. The builder also needs 6 techs to get to industrial automation. If the attacker researches mobility and flexibility first, then he could already have the rovers on their way to another continent before well before he has impact weapons. By the time he finishes researching impact weapons and prototypes them at home, the rovers could very feasibly be near their intended target. He then upgrades to impact weapons and soon lands. I doubt that the builder could research doctrine mobility, social psych, and doctrine loyalty, then rush a perimiter defense by the time the impact rovers would be razing his bases. In addition, most rover-rush factions have specific attributes that would give them extra advantages. For instance, the spartan morale and starting tech help, the believer's have their attack bonus, and even some factions not generally thought of as momentum factions have useful attributes here. Cha dawn could likely get away with just building a couple gun foils and then capturing his transport, in addition to likely having mind worm support. Aki starts with both pre-reqs for impact weaponry researched, and as already has been pointed out, the pirates start with two needed techs. The pirates also would be likely to have found an enemy, thanks to starting with a gun foil to scout around. While fundamentally you are of course right, and I would hesitate to question your opinion on anything related to SMAC strategy, I think the situation might be a bit more complicated than you've presented it, largely in favor of the attacker. As a footnote, I learned almost everything I know about how to play this game from your strategy guides, and like everyone else, I'm eagerly awaiting your new guide!

[Velociryx]

Hiya Og! How you been man!? As always, excellent points and summation!

I think that everybody here is in agreement on a number of basic game truths. Some of those are as follows: The fact is, the Rover Rush is the most feared attack in all of Builderdom. It’s feared because it works. If you, as a Builder, begin on the same continent with someone designed to excel at a rush attack, you are virtually fried. You’ll be toasted before you even know what hit you unless you radically alter your game and start getting ready to fight from the beginning (but in that case, the opponent still can claim “victory” because you’re no longer playing “your” game).

If you’re on your own continent, even if the continent is fairly nearby, you have a much bigger margin of safety. If you’re not careful, you can still get your hind-end handed to you before you get set up, but you DO have a bigger window to work in.

Vytae, you’re absolutely correct. I don’t use gas for that very reason. It just doesn’t “fit” with my style of play. Needless to say, my steadfast refusal to use gas puts me at something of a disadvantage in MP games, where Humans use it more often than not. That’s cool, and I can’t say I blame them from a purely “game mechanics” POV….why not? An extra 50% boost to attack!? Who wouldn’t love it? But, I do my best, and get by without it.

And Justin, glad you unlurked! Question my opinions….always question! And your analysis of the situation is dead on. If you are going to launch a rover attack from across the sea, the method you described is far and away the best way to do it—it is, however, not without some drawbacks, as mentioned below. And, you correctly pointed out that in the scenario mentioned above, the defending player was given a number of techs above and beyond what the attacker had been given. I consider this to be about right though, and we’ll soon see hard numbers on that as people begin playing the test maps mentioned in another thread on this forum.

As I said, your method of launching the attack is an excellent one—building the rovers and trannie early, and sending them toward the enemy. This would, however, suggest that you already know where the enemy is. In that case, we must assume the previous construction of a gun or probe foil that has already scouted the area out and located a viable target. Well and good, but it does add time and additional mineral costs to the attack force.

Conversely, you could build the attack force without scouting and hope for the best, but in the meantime, you’re likely paying at least a mineral or two per turn to support the attack force. Spend twenty or thirty turns looking for someone to hit, and you’ve spent as many minerals in support as it would take you to build a network node or two (which your defensive counterpart is no doubt busy doing), which is why the difference in tech levels for the two.

Keep in mind too, that we’re talking about attacks in the very early game, implying bases no bigger than size 3-4. In order to get a transport and a pair of rovers in the field quickly, you’d likely need to start building them while the base is size 1-2, meaning that those builds will take a long time, relatively speaking, and the support hit, if any, will be felt more profoundly at those smaller bases—if you’ve only got four minerals per turn at a given base, one mineral tied up in support costs amounts to a quarter of the base’s total productivity. Also, in order to field a really early attack force, you’ll need to start during the point in the game when you’ve got no more than three bases up and running, meaning you’ve just cut your expansion by at least a third (assuming you build the entire attack force from one base only) for the time it takes to get them in the field. OUCH. The Believers are at a natural advantage here, in the sense that they can’t research anything for the first ten turns of the game, which pretty much forces them to build a few early scout patrols (and later, rovers) while they’re waiting for their bases to get big enough to build another colony pod. Hey….when it’s all you’ve got to build, it’s better than nothing, and exploring is better than stockpiling!

The expansion slowdown can be looked at in two ways. First and easiest to see, is the fact that you are building fewer colony pods than you were before you started working on the attack force, but the real question is….in the time it takes to build a few rovers, a gun foil to scout, and a transport, how many colony pods did your opponent put down? And each of those contributes in a meaningful way, in the early game, to getting those cheap, fast techs (this is the reason that I can often get to, or be researching Industrial Automation with Zak before I can even research my first tech as the Believers!).

Best rush factions:
I’d say you’re right on target with your analysis. It’s true, some factions are just better suited to an early game rush than others. Morgan, with his lousy support and predisposition toward wealth would make an interesting, but somewhat difficult faction to make a strong rush with, but as you rightly point out, the Pirates, Cyborgs, Believers, Hive, and Spartans, thanks to starting techs and/or faction bonuses make excellent candidates.

WHEW….I must be in a wordy mood today…lol….anyway, all that to say, yes…I agree with you. The initial example truly was a simplified case, and you’re quite right, there are a HUGE number of factors to consider. I hope I didn’t weight it too far in favor of the defender, although I think it’s no secret I favor defensive strategies, mostly because they’re harder to implement. Anybody can load up a transport with nerve gas Rovers or haul out the X-Chaos Choppers and run a fellow over….but how much skill and finesse does that take? To quote from Morgan, “None! I say!” It takes real nerve, grit, and skill though, to keep your cool under fire and execute a good defense. That’s awesome.

-=Vel=-

[Kirnwaffen]

Just a quick note about rushing with the Pirates.

It would seem to me that as the Pirates stand to lose a great deal more from the rover rush than any of the other mentioned factions above. This is due to one of the reasons Vel mentioned above: Expansion.

The Pirates already naturally lag in expansion due to the cost of sea colonies. I don't have exact figures, but sea colony pods can take a sea base with a mineral bonus 15 turns easily. Without that bonus, you're looking at almost twenty. By cutting their expansion rate by 1/3, you're risking putting yourself behind by miles. I personally would never sacrifice expansion with the Pirates unless I felt the sacrifice would lead to substantial mid-late game advantages (WP, for instance, is a good reason to stop building sea colony pods).

Besides that, the way I see it, those support costs and build times are better spent on pod popping vessels, if you're going to start building units at all. The Pirates have an obvious advantage in early pod lotto. Using the rush in the way stated above leaves you a transport and a unity foil to pop pods with.

So, I guess my point is that rushing with the Pirates is probably a bad idea unless you can bag a REALLY good submissive, which seems unlikely to happen unless you are extremely lucky. Maybe it's just my play style, but that's my opinion.

[death_head]

Well, keep in mind that what the Pirates lack in expansion, they more than make up for in high Nutrient and Energy production. As far as I am concerned, fewer, larger bases are just as useful as a thinner, larger empire.

[JustinSane]

Vel, excellent points regarding the potential problems with a very early rover rush. I wouldn't even try a real rover rush against the UoP, though a modified probe rush could work. Basically, rather than a payload of just rovers, send a colony pod, a couple probe teams and a garrison or two. Then try to probe yourself to technological equality

I think though that there are two factions, and possibly a third, that could overcome those difficulties without undue trouble, to varying degrees at least. The first is the Hive. The extra support from police state means that a four rover attack force could be supported by just two bases without any minerals lost. Assuming another base builds the transport and scout foil, the only cost to the Hive is the minerals expended actually building the attack force. With their natural aptitude for expansion, I'd think that they would be able to catch up to the other factions' total number of bases fairly quickly, though they'd still be behind
on infrastructure. I've never played a multi-player game, but every time I've tried this in single player, it led to a fairly easy win. Of course the artificial idiot doesn't defend nearly as well as a human would though. The believers could try the same strategy, but I'm not sure it would work due their pitiful early research.

The other faction I think to be well suited to this is the Cult. (easily my favorite faction) First, they are likely to have between 2 and 6 mindworms and/or spore launchers to add to their rovers. Second, they can almost invariably capture a couple IOD's fairly quickly using just two gun foil scouts, with the added bonus that these gun foils can be searching for a rush victim while recruiting IOD's. The defender could easily find himself caught in a catch 22, since after ind. auto, he could get the tech needed to defend himself against the rovers (either mobility, social psych and loyalty, or physics, chemistry and sub. atomic theory) or against the mind worms (soc. psych, biogenetics, and SOTHB), but it might be tough to get both in time. And both are needed, since even a couple impact rovers can do serious damage to an empire with only synthmetal armor and no perim. defense, and mindworms have an overwhelming edge attacking defenders without trance or res. armor. Meanwhile, the cult's mineral expenditure is only 2 or 3 rovers and 2 gun foils,
which can be scrapped as soon as the needed IOD's are captured. Reasonable, considering the damage the worm/rover force can do. Diedre can try the same thing, but not as successfully. -1 morale hurts, she doesn't capture her army as quickly, and the Cult's worms are a bit better on attack. (+2 planet vs. only +1).

There are a couple pretty huge drawbacks to this strategy for the Cult however. First off, as you pointed out, the speed of expansion just gets killed. In addition, you're likely to be paying 2 or 3 minerals in support every turn, and you're not that good at industry anyway. Third, the -1 economy means you're behind in research and staying that way for the foreseeable future, unless you get a couple nice submissives and have some good success with probes. Once you've committed to this tech path, it's tough to pull out, so if you can't find a victim faction you're in tough shape. And lastly, if another momentum player hits you while you've got your army in transit or on another continent, you're dead. No decent defenders, and no money to rush them. So it's a major gamble, especially if one were playing against opponents with human brains. Either you assimilate another empire, or you lose. This works well against the AI, but so does just about anything else
Sorry for the length of this post, sometimes I get a bit carried away! In conclusion, I think that for the Hive and the Planet Cult, the intercontinental rover rush is viable and possibly promising, but quite risky, since you could easily end up behind in tech, infrastructure, and population with little to show for it if you don't conquer someone. It's fun though; you get to attack, and who doesn't love that!?
(well, actually, I guess a lot of good players don't.. hehe.. maybe that is why i'm still not nearly as good at this game as they are )