SGLs and Me

[Theseus]

[vmxa1]

Yes very good.

[Drachen]

I played 3 starts as Russia in a mod where the scout had 100 moves and 1 shield cost on a 200*200 map. I obtained dozens of techs each time while my rival was researching tech #1 and never generated a SGL. I didn't continue the experiment to statistical certainty but I think it's unlikely that goody huts yield leaders.

I did get a SGL in a Mayan Beta game about the time my tanks came online but they did seem more plentiful before I patched.

[lockstep]

Originally posted by Drachen
I played 3 starts as Russia in a mod where the scout had 100 moves and 1 shield cost on a 200*200 map. I obtained dozens of techs each time while my rival was researching tech #1 and never generated a SGL. I didn't continue the experiment to statistical certainty but I think it's unlikely that goody huts yield leaders.

IIRC, a player still has to be in the ancient age to obtain techs from goodie huts. So the maximum number of obtainable techs is 18 (21 ancient techs minus 2 starting techs minus 1 because you can't get Republic AND Monarchy in the same game). Therefore, with 3 starts played (and if you always got Literature plus either Republic or Monarchy), the chance for a scientific civ to get zero SGL's is (1-0,05)^54 or 6.3%. (For a non-scientific civ, the chance would be 19.3%.)

[Drachen]

Thanks for the statistical help Lockstep. Your inference that I can't have had dozens of techs from goody huts seems valid since I didn’t get a single tech from a hut after exiting the ancient age in a further run of 3 experiments in which I opened many huts post age advance. I did however get Literature, Monarchy and Republic in each test. Also, I failed to mention that I had set the starting tech # to zero for all players and had limited the number of players to two, i.e., Russia and Rome. Therefore I actually was the first player to 21 techs each time I ran the experiment and I have run it a total of six times now without generating a SGL. If my rusty math skills don’t mislead me then updating the numbers yields the following… (1 - .05) ^ (6*21) = 0.00156 or 0.156 % chance of not getting a SGL for Russia. I don’t recall how to obtain p values etc and I really don’t feel like looking it up so I’ll leave any further analysis of the results to those more able than myself if they so choose.

Cheers

[lockstep]

Interesting - now I'm also inclined to think that goody hut techs don't yield SGL's.

BTW, the 'player must be still in the ancient age' condition was, IIRC, a Firaxis/Breakaway quote. But obviously it is possible to get missing ancient techs by huts after one has advanced to the middle ages.

[Inverse Icarus]

i played an OCC as greece and got 4 in one game.

helped a lot with the culture win

[Inverse Icarus]

sidebar: i've never used them to have a "scientific golden age". whats the number again, 25% increase in all citites? how good is that really, especially on the higher levels? i don't see a reason to NOT have Sun Tzu's in 1 turn, much less 20 turns of science, which will yield 2 or 3 techs if i'm lucky.

[Catt]

Originally posted by lockstep
Interesting - now I'm also inclined to think that goody hut techs don't yield SGL's.

I was interested in Drachen's results and set up a test scenario myself to check on SGLs from techs discovered from huts. With 180 techs from huts, popped by a scientific civ, not one single SGL. I calculate those odds, if SGLS were in fact possible fro hut techs, at 1/100% (0.95^180). I too am now inclined to believe in Drachen's thesis.

BTW, the 'player must be still in the ancient age' condition was, IIRC, a Firaxis/Breakaway quote. But obviously it is possible to get missing ancient techs by huts after one has advanced to the middle ages.

Based on my test scenario, I think the Firaxian statement is correct. You cannot pop a tech from a hut that you are currently researching. So, if you're researching a required tech and popping lots of huts, you'll eventually get Literature, Monarchy, and Republic. But if you're researching any of the three optional techs, you'll eventually advance into the Medieval Age via hut techs and from then on never have a chance to pop the optional ancient age techs from huts.

Catt

[Drachen]

Thanks lockstep and Catt. Ya gotta love reproducible results. I noted in my mod that I could get techs I was currently researching but it may be that my changing the rules in the editor caused some unusual behavior. I’ll try to attach a screenshot zip.

[Catt]

Originally posted by Drachen
Thanks lockstep and Catt. Ya gotta love reproducible results. I noted in my mod that I could get techs I was currently researching but it may be that my changing the rules in the editor caused some unusual behavior. I’ll try to attach a screenshot zip.

Strange! Not popping a currently-being-researched tech is a tried-and-true tactic and also an event I never saw despite popping dozens and dozens of huts while researching available techs. Could you have been researching Map-Making and popped Philosophy from a hut (which would give you MM)? Even if so, my Philosophy techs had a different pop-up.

Attached is my test scenario (and a save at 4000BC). I set up a 2-civ game with the AI on a 1-tile island and the human on a large landmass with huts on every tile. Playing as expansionist, with 100-move scouts, setting the initial city on a settler build, and playing at Chieftan (better hut odds), means you can run through 18 techs (20, if I hadn't forgotten to remove starting techs) in just a few minutes.

Catt

[Kuciwalker]

Don't kill me, either. In a recent game as the Babylonians, I got an SGL from Writing (which I used on the Pyramids), an SGL from Philosophy (that gave me the Lighthouse - this was an Island map), another from Polytheism (for Oracle), one from Feudalism (Sun Tzu's), Education (Sistine Chapel), Scientific Method (Theory of Evolution), and then when I quickly researched Ironclads I got my last one which gave me Hoover's. Oh, and I got one on my last turn (I forget what tech) but before I got to use him I got a culture win

That may explain why the RNG keeps sacrificing so many Hoplites (even vets fortified on Mountains) to Immortals in Rise of Rome.

[Drachen]

Congratulations Skywalker. My best was 3 SGL and the game gets very easy when that happens doesn't it?

Catt...I downloaded your zip and ran the save game. Did you place all those huts by Hand? Whew! At any rate, in this case I did get Philosophy after I popped a hut and immediately thereafter I got a message that said I had learned the secrets of the wheel etc. You have noted that that the two events show different screens and I maintain that I got Map Making while researching it. I will follow with the caveat that the fine American bourbon I'm having before diner may be interfering with my research efforts...but the zips do seem persuasive nonetheless.

[Catt]

Originally posted by Drachen
Catt...I downloaded your zip and ran the save game. Did you place all those huts by Hand? Whew!

Yes, but it's easy in the editor -- just point and click at free tiles with the "goody hut" overlay active.

At any rate, in this case I did get Philosophy after I popped a hut and immediately thereafter I got a message that said I had learned the secrets of the wheel etc. You have noted that that the two events show different screens and I maintain that I got Map Making while researching it.

I don't doubt that you got it while researching it -- your pop-up clearly shows that MM was learned from a hut while your civ was researching MM and I didn't mean to challenge your experience in any way. I posted my thought (sumarized as "Strange!") only because I saw your experience as unusual and worthy of further experimentation since it seemed unusual. I didn't intend that my post was a challenge to your post or experience -- I merely intended it as another data point.

My own enjoyment of fine western American ales, followed by a pleasant California Cabernet with dinner (both while watching, or surreptiously listening to, the American football playoff game), may have contributed to my view of the output of the test scenario I posted.

Catt

[Drachen]

Originally posted by Catt
My own enjoyment of fine western American ales, followed by a pleasant California Cabernet with dinner (both while watching, or surreptiously listening to, the American football playoff game), may have contributed to my view of the output of the test scenario I posted.

Catt

Surreptitious observation? Very Catt like indeed!

All in all some good work done today. You clearly deserve a good Cabernet and sunset by the Bay.

Cheers