About difficulty level

[Elephant]

Re: Re: Re: Why Avoid Huts before Monarchy

Originally posted by Bloody Monk
Are you asserting that by researching CoL before CB that you are more likely to get a scroll from a hut?? How can this be?? If there is some research on this I would love to study it. I'm always interested in learning something new.

What he might be saying is that if you research Alph first you open up more techs as options from a hut, rather than increase the chance of getting a tech versus anything else. Samson did some exhaustive testing on hut probabilities that did not show anything other than keeping the second settler around increasing the chance of techs. Alph gives you three follow-on techs without other pre-reqs; Bronze and CerBur both give you one.

In addition to techs from huts, consider what you may get from early AI contact if you are on a big land mass. AI often research Bronze and Horse first, so I sometimes defer them in hope that I can get them by trade. On a small land mass, though, I go for Bronze first to add the 2nd line of shields to rushbuying options, and if I elect Early Republic Writing will be shortly thereafter to add the 3rd line.

[Old n Slow]

Given the 0,1,2 research quirk, Monarchy a "2" won't be available as a the third, sixth or ninth tech; thus Rah is correct -- two off techs (forcing Monarchy to the sixth tech slot) forces a third off tech.

Another thought that might happen -- if one starts with Bronze as a free tech, then after two of the Alpha/CB/Code trio, the third appears as the joker tech -- thus no off tech required.

[rah]

That would explain those rare occurances were it doesn't follow the pattern. I keep forgetting about the joker tech. DOH.

[Old n Slow]

One thing I don't recall is whether the hut research combined the oedo quirk. I recall the odds based upon the starting techs & the alpha listing, but if one opts for Alpha at the start, second choice narrows to Bronze, CB, Code, HBR & Write.

On the other hand, if one goes for CB at the start, second choice narrows to Alpha, HBR. If the huts are subject to the oedo quirk, then it looks like it is a 40-60% chance of getting Alpha from a hut (for free) and a 20 shield choice otherwise.

If the huts are not subject to the oedo quirk, then there is about a 3% chance of getting the third of the starting trio from a hut (in addition to cash or a unit) after the second tech -- low odds given the risky outcome (pushing Monarchy from tech number five to tech number seven as noted above.)

So Rah's path of CB first, Ok to pop huts during the pre-offtech selection looks pretty good.

Once one selects an offtech path, hut popping is a risky business for a couple of tech rounds.

[rah]

And In MP we restart if the host has techs, so we're not used to playing getting bronze as a freebie.

[Bloody Monk]

Originally posted by Scouse Gits
Surely not, rah - if Monarchy is not available as tech #4, which we know, it should be available as tech #5 & #6 - vanishing again when we research tech #7

Stu

This statement is not completely correct. The unavailability is also due to prerequisite problems in addition to this aax sequence. With three techs, list "0" is unavailable ( With 3/3, R=0). List "2" choices (CB, Code, Monarchy) should be available but are affected by previous prerequisite limits.

The research on "Next Available Tech" was started by Oedo in 2000. Here is a link to a post by DaveV that has the general rule...

http://apolyton.net/forums/showthread.php?postid=39646#post39646

where he says...

Take the number of techs you've discovered, divide by 3, and take the remainder. Any tech marked with that number in the following table (not copied here) is not available for research.

We can use a truncated list because Alpha will be the joker, and thus, always available until completed and the other three (CB, Code, and Monarchy) are all from list "2".
For each tech the unavailable list is as follows:

1--0
2--1
3--2
4--0
5--1
6--2
7--0
8--1
9--2

Therefore, Monarchy, COULD be available as tech4 or tech5, but not tech6. Sorry, Stu, but rah is correct here.

Let's look at each step along the way, starting with the list of available techs the first time. These are Alpha, Bronze, CB, HB, Mason, Pot, and WC. Of the three prerequisites for Monarchy, Code, lacking its prerequisite, is not yet offered. And, but for the joker, Alpha, List "0" is unavailable.

Depending on whether you take Alpha or CB, the next offerings will differ, but with one tech in hand, those from list "1" will be excluded next. If you take CB first, you will be offered Alpha, or HB next. If you take Alpha first, the joker will become Bronze (even though from list "#1") plus the additional choices from getting the Alpha requisite; thus, BW, CB, Code, HB, Map, Write are the choices for tech two.

You will have Alpha and either CB or Code after the second tech.

Now that one has two techs, those from list "2" will be excluded, since that is the new remainder, (except in the case OnS noted where Bronze is a starting tech--because the new joker will be CB or Code). Whether you are missing CB or Code, it won't be offered and your choices will be Bronze, Map, Mason, Pot, WC, or Write. Hence, the need for an off-path choice. Doing it straightup, without huts, it is not possible to get the three prerequisites for Monarchy as the third tech.

It is possible, however, to get very lucky with huts, and be given the choice of Monarchy as the fourth tech; but only if you choose CB as the first tech and get Alpha then Code from huts before CB is discovered. Alpha came on the 11th trial (11/100)and Code on the 52nd (52/100).

For the record, choosing Alpha as the first tech got no joy in three 100 event trials (before alpha, after alpha but before cb, and after alpha but before code).

Not being very speedy any more, others have posted already and OnS has a post with similar conclusions. But having ground out the trials I am compelled to post the results. Sorry if it is redundant.

Monk

[rah]

Originally posted by Bloody Monk

It is possible, however, to get very lucky with huts, and be given the choice of Monarchy as the fourth tech; but only if you choose CB as the first tech and get Alpha then Code from huts before CB is discovered. Alpha came on the 11th trial (11/100)and Code on the 52nd (52/100).

For the record, choosing Alpha as the first tech got no joy in three 100 event trials (before alpha, after alpha but before cb, and after alpha but before code).

Monk

Thanks Monk, that squares with my experiences, and I'll keep choosing CB first. Since we play 2x1x deity games (two settlers), the goal is to get 5 beakers from your first two cities so it is unlikely that you can get alpha and Code before developing CB (Two turns).

But if I have lots of huts available at the start, this may influence my thinking and I may back off the beakers for a turn or two, to try to take advantage of this. Of course, if i try this, I'll probably end up getting multiple techs off the path.

[Bloody Monk]

Originally posted by rah
Thanks Monk, that squares with my experiences, and I'll keep choosing CB first.

But if I have lots of huts available at the start, this may influence my thinking and I may back off the beakers for a turn or two, to try to take advantage of this. Of course, if i try this, I'll probably end up getting multiple techs off the path.

Yep, the odds are very long against getting a good result. I think not tipping is better than getting WC as the off-path tech. After getting the first off tech, tipping a second time is to court disaster.

For your MP games, you seem to prefer Horse, right?? I remember a thread that tested the probabilities for getting a first tech from a hut. It had Horse as the one with the greatest probability, around 26%. But WC was 22%, if I am remembering right.

BTW, I did a few hundred additional trials with Alpha as the first 'chosen' tech, but at different stages along the way from the ones noted before. Never got Alpha or CB from a hut with Alpha as the tech being researched (~600 trials). Definitely seems that CB is the best choice to research first.

Monk

[-Jrabbit]

I can attest that Rah is a hard-core Phalanx guy in MP.

I'm the idiot who likes horses.

[rah]

It depends on the situation, but yes, it's usually defense, but not always.

On huts, yes, I will shy away some once researching the first off path tech, but if you're behind due to a bad start, sometimes you just have to pop to attempt to catch up. Sometimes it works, and sometimes it doesn't

A few weeks ago I got off to a miserable start and said what the heck. Already researching bronze, and had four huts in site. SO I started popping, nomad, bronze, advanced civ, COL. A nice harvest I found another hut but waited to pop till the next turn after I had selected monarchy to research. No reason to push your luck too much.

[Bloody Monk]

Luck is great ally, indeed.

Here is a part of a Solo post to a Samson thread, "A Study of Hut Outcomes."

"All tips were made from reloads using deity, raging and 2.42. I tried 3 types of terrain (grass,plains,forest), until I got 100 tech results from each (actually 104 from the forest huts). For each tech, I'll list the number of hits for each of these terrain types, followed by the total percentage for each tech using this 304 tech sample.

Pottery - 17,19,18 - 18%
Alphabet - 13,17,19 - 16%
Warrior Code - 20,20,27 - 22%
Horseback Riding - 29,24,25 - 26%
Bronze Working - 6,9,7 - 7%
Masonry - 15,10,7 - 10%
Ceremonial Burial - 0,1,1 - 1%

Here is the thread link...

http://apolyton.net/forums/showthread.php?postid=1505145#post1505145

From this it appears Horse is a lot more likely than Bronze, from a hut. Also, that I remembered those percentages pretty well.

Monk

[rah]

Yes, but it changes based on what techs you already have. So when you have no techs, it's just on the path or not. One is good, two off the path sucks. So this type of analysis doesn't have as much impact on one of our normal games.

[Elephant]

Someone needs to retitle this thread...

[rah]

Make a suggestion and I'll find a mod.

[-Jrabbit]

Looks like the appropriate title for its actual content it
"Huts before Monarchy"