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Least probable defeat ?

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  • Least probable defeat ?

    I had this a couple of days ago. Wondered how much worse can it get. Anyone can remember losing against 0.02% or lower odds ?
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  • #2
    Sure, it happens every now and then. I'd dare to say that on average every 1000th of the 99.9% battles I fight, I lose

    Due to the combat log rounding you can even lose a "100.0%" battle, though getting such odds in the first place is a tad rarer so that's not too common. I don't think I've ever had one of those.
    It's a lowercase L, not an uppercase I.

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    • #3
      Yes, even 99.9 odds are set to lose once in a thousand fights. What is really frustrating is losing two 95%+ in a row. On the other hand, it is really nice when one wins when the other side's odds are 80%+. In theory, it balances out.
      No matter where you go, there you are. - Buckaroo Banzai
      "I played it [Civilization] for three months and then realised I hadn't done any work. In the end, I had to delete all the saved files and smash the CD." Iain Banks, author

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      • #4
        What's all that combat- extra combat?
        I'm consitently stupid- Japher
        I think that opinion in the United States is decidedly different from the rest of the world because we have a free press -- by free, I mean a virgorously presented right wing point of view on the air and available to all.- Ned

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        • #5
          Originally posted by Blaupanzer View Post
          Yes, even 99.9 odds are set to lose once in a thousand fights.
          Which is one reason why I always have a laugh when I see those super promoted generals that people show off on occasion. You know, the ones that have every promotion known to man... virtual gods.
          They HAVE to be resetting to get that. I lose generals all the time at 99%. I try to take care of them, but sometimes you just lose if you are using them. To make that many attacks to get those many promotions, you eventually have to lose one. Sh*t Happens
          Keep on Civin'
          RIP rah, Tony Bogey & Baron O

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          • #6
            Yeah I have had defeats that have surprised me, but also I have had surprising victories where a suicidal catapult has survived or a flanking knight has won, not just retreated.

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            • #7
              For me, I think I lose more 99.9s when its a GG. (since I remember those for awhile )

              Yes it is fun when you go I can afford to lose this cat before I start attacking with other units and the cat win at .7%.
              It's almost as if all his overconfident, absolutist assertions were spoonfed to him by a trusted website or subreddit. Sheeple
              RIP Tony Bogey & Baron O

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              • #8
                I usually have some "fodder" in my SOD's (old units I will never upgrade) to try and nick some of the opponents good units so my real good units are more likely to win. Nothing better than actually winning a few of them
                Keep on Civin'
                RIP rah, Tony Bogey & Baron O

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                • #9
                  Whenever I do that, I end up not nicking them so it's just a lose negatively affecting my WW and giving those enemy units cheap experience if by some case they survive the rest of my stack. And if it's one of those stacks where I'm outnumbered so it's going to take me two turns to beat him down, sometimes those cheap promos heal them enough so it costs me a few other units. Outdated units in my attack stacks are for mopping up and being left behind as city patrols.
                  It's almost as if all his overconfident, absolutist assertions were spoonfed to him by a trusted website or subreddit. Sheeple
                  RIP Tony Bogey & Baron O

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                  • #10
                    If I'm using them in an attack, it is because my intent is to take out the whole stack in that turn.

                    You are right about the WW. But if I'm trying to take out a civ, speed is key, and the best way to get rid of WW is to eliminate the civ
                    Keep on Civin'
                    RIP rah, Tony Bogey & Baron O

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                    • #11
                      Ming the Conqueror. The only good AI civ is an eliminated civ.
                      No matter where you go, there you are. - Buckaroo Banzai
                      "I played it [Civilization] for three months and then realised I hadn't done any work. In the end, I had to delete all the saved files and smash the CD." Iain Banks, author

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                      • #12
                        Yeah, every time I see that "we want to rejoin the motherland" I just go into a genocidal rage.
                        It's almost as if all his overconfident, absolutist assertions were spoonfed to him by a trusted website or subreddit. Sheeple
                        RIP Tony Bogey & Baron O

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                        • #13
                          Personally, I think of Ming, since he pointed out the genpcidal solution as though the rest of don't try to do that too. I usually have to take down a civ in 4 - 5 city chunks at a time at least until cavalry and cannon. The economy cant pay for the units to be in hostile territory long enough to take 10 or 12 cities, plus the whole stack has need of lots more units. Don't know how he does what the AI can do in terms of stacks at the Monarch level. Your stack is self-dissolving if the economy fails, so I know his doesn't.
                          No matter where you go, there you are. - Buckaroo Banzai
                          "I played it [Civilization] for three months and then realised I hadn't done any work. In the end, I had to delete all the saved files and smash the CD." Iain Banks, author

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                          • #14
                            I hate stopping once I've started on a civ. The only time I do is when I misjudged the situation and become overextended.
                            It's almost as if all his overconfident, absolutist assertions were spoonfed to him by a trusted website or subreddit. Sheeple
                            RIP Tony Bogey & Baron O

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                            • #15
                              Originally posted by Blaupanzer View Post
                              Personally, I think of Ming, since he pointed out the genpcidal solution as though the rest of don't try to do that too.
                              Nahhhh... I'm sure everybody wants to win a war as fast and as efficiently as they can. The game is designed that way. And that's the reason I keep pointing it out

                              When I start a war, I want to end it quickly... The quicker it's done with, the faster I can go back to rebuilding my economy. When you are trying to take out 10 to 12 cities, if you get bogged down, you get in real trouble. Granted, as rah indicated, some times you do misjudge the situation and run into problems. I hate having to take a "cease fire or 10 turn peace" to regroup in the middle of a battle. Because the AI will be doing the same thing I'm doing, rebuilding their army... You sometimes have to drop to 10% science rate during a big war, or have many ciites working on wealth. The longer that happens, the more time you give other civs to jump past you on the tech paths. Plus, once the war is done, it takes a while to get things going strong again as you intigrate the new cities into your empire.

                              So, speed is everything
                              Keep on Civin'
                              RIP rah, Tony Bogey & Baron O

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