Great Tech Leaders

[jbp26]

Originally posted by snoopy369
(CHA-FIN might be a very powerful early game combo, though...)

it definitely is. hannibal is one of my favorites. on top of two good traits, he also gets the cothon.

[rjmatsleepers]

(Summary for anyone who doesn't like long posts: Darius I may be the best leader for a space race victory based on science research rather than military conquest.)

The OP asked for a leader for a space race victory - one that is good for science. A space race win can be achieved by using military force to establish a large empire which then has the resources to steam roller the win. This is a variation of a military victory and others are better qualified to comment on the best leaders for this approach. An alternative space race win has a relatively compact empire with 7 to 10 cities able to defend itself, but avoiding conquest as a strategy. The rest of this post is concerned with that approach.

With a fractal map and normal speed at Emporer level, a typical space race game (in my experience) lasts about 400 turns. The final 100 turns are largely about optimal construction of the space ship - organising cities to maximise hammers, deciding which order to discover enabling techs, choosing which city to build parts in, etc. So for this analysis I will consider only 300 turns.

There are a number of aspects that have been raised, including traits, UBs, UUs and reduced costs of buildings such as libraries and universities. The reduced cost of buildings are trait dependent - libraries for creative and universities for philosophical. The UBs are civilization dependent. There are a number that are beneficial for a scientific leader seeking a space race victory, including cothon, mint, stock exchange, seowon, feitora, forum, research institute and the assembly plant. Although all of these are useful for a space race victory, I am assuming that that none of them give a benefit that is large enough to exceed the benefit of a trait. Therefore I shall treat the UB as an extra benefit or something that can be influential in choice of leader where the trait benefits are very close.

The nominations for useful traits have been ORG, FIN, PHI, CRE and SPI.

Financial gives 1 extra commerce for any tile with 2 commerce. It is particularly beneficial in starts with seafood specials or flood plains and for cottage economies. The benefit in the early years is highly dependent on play style and available resources. I assume it will give you an additional average 2.5 science per turn during the first 100 turns, 12.5 science per turn in the second 100 turns and 40 science per turn in the third 100 turns. This gives a total of (say) 5,500. (Someone skilled at a cottage economy could probably improve these figures.)

Philosophical increases the great person points and reduces construction time for universities. It is particularly beneficial for a specialist economy. I assume it will give you an average 6 additional points during the first 100 turns; an average of 14 additional points in the second 100 turns and an average of 24 additional points during the third 100 turns. This is 4,400 additional points which are worth at least 3 additional great people. If a great person is worth 1,500 science, this gives 4,500. Early completion of a university gives 50 science times 6 universities = 300. Early completion of the 6th university allows early completion of Oxford which may be worth a further 500. Total (say) 5,300. (Someone skilled at a specialist economy could probably improve these figures.)

Organised reduces civic upkeep by 50%. The benefit appears to kick in with the adoption of bureaucracy and it is particularly strong in the late game. Typical benefit during the first 100 turns appears to be negligable; during the second 100 turns (allowing for multipliers), an average 12 per turn; during the third 100 turns, 50 per turn. Total, 6,200. (Note: I may have overestimated benefit from reduced inflation.) (See revised calculation below.)

Creative gives 2 culture points per city and reduces the construction time for libraries. Although there is clearly a benefit from the culture which brings a lot more land into your cultural control, I find it difficult to quantify the impact on science. I shall assume it makes selection of city location less crucial which gives a small amount of extra science for half the cities after the first. For want of any better figures I assume 25 extra science in the first 100 turns, perhaps 250 in the second 100 turns and maybe 500 in the third 100 turns. I suspect these figures are far too big, but let's go with them for the moment. The benefit from the earlier libraries is probably no more than 6 per library - say 40 in total. Getting two of the libraries earlier probably gives you two universities earlier - 50 each. There is probably an extra 500 from early completion of Oxford. Total (say) 1415.

Spiritual allows civic changes without anarchy. It is often associated with Mysticism as a starting tech and this allows a good shot at an early religion. I would expect to make at least 5 civic changes, plus the adoption of at least one religion. I estimate that no anarchy saves around 400 science when switching to Free Trade, roughly 70 each switching to Bureaucracy and Pacifism, about 20 switching to Representation (via the Pyramids) and about 10 switching to Slavery. The adoption of religion without anarchy saves maybe 20. Total (say) 600. (This result surprises me since I am a fan of the Spiritual trait. Perhaps the figures can be improved because of the possibility of short term changes between Slavery and Caste System which would otherwise be expensive. In addition, if there are two civic changes in the late game, Spiritual could save about 2,000 more.)

There are a lot of assumptions here. The figures are probably not robust enough to say that Financial is better than Philosophical. On the other hand, they are probably good enough to say that each of the top three is better than Creative or Spiritual.

There are three leaders who have the top traits - Darius I (Financial, Organised), Frederick (Philosophical, Organised) and Elizabeth I (Philosophical, Financial) However, Elizabeth I's traits don't fit together well. It needs very careful play to get the full benefit from Philosophical and Financial at the same time - you would like specialists to exploit Philosophical and cottages to exploit financial. Based on this analysis, I'm certainly going to try Darius and Frederick.

RJM

I played a game as Frederick and did not give me the benifit I was hoping for from the organised trait. I checked my figures and here is the revised version.

Typical benefit from Organised during the first 100 turns appears to be 1 science per turn; during the second 100 turns (allowing for multipliers), an average 14 per turn; during the third 100 turns, 34 per turn. Total, 4,900.

Based on the revised calculation, Organised is less effective than Philodophical and Financial.

[Diadem]

I'm sorry RJM, but I think your calculations are flawed.

Your numbers seem very unrealistic. And simple adding profit in different areas together is also very unrealistic. Early profit is worth much more than late game profit.


I agree 300 turns is a good average gamelength. Let's divide them into 6 periods of 50 turns. But 1 gold per turn in the first 50 turns is worth much more than the last 50. So let's assign a multiplier to each age.

P1 = Turn 1 - 50: M = 20
P2 = Turn 51 - 100: M = 12
P3 = Turn 101 - 150: M = 5
P4 = Turn 151 - 200: M = 2.5
P5 = Turn 201 - 250: M = 1.5
P6 = Turn 251 - 300: M = 1

Ok. Now lets look at each trait.

Organized: Its main bonus is a straight up gold bonus. Let's estimate it as 0 gold during P1, 2 gold during P2, 8 gold during P3, 15 gold during P4, 30 gold during P5 and 60 gold during P6. Modified for the weight of each period that's 10325 gold. Plus your cheaper courthouses, 120 hammers a piece, for 10 cities. That's 600 hammers saved. Plus having them average 6 turns earlier means you save half of 6 upkeep per city for 10 cities for 6 turns = 180 gold. Let's count every hammer as 2 gold. Means 1380 gold. During period 3 so a modifier of 5.

Total bonus from Organized: 17225 gold.

Now for Financial. The question here is: how many tiles with 2 natural commerce do you work? Each such tile adds 1 commerce, after all. Well during P1 let's say 2 such tiles. During P2 you already have 3-4 cities, probably one specialized in commerce, so let's say 8 each turn. Plus a library for 25% bonus. During P3 let's so 20 a turn with 25% bonus. During P4 we're at 30 a turn with 100% average bonus (libraries + uni + oxford in your best city). During P5 we're at 45 a turn with 100% average bonus and P6 gives us 60 a turn with 100% average bonus.

Total bonus from Financial 28500

As you can see Financial is MUCH better than organized.

I'll think some on how to quantify the other traits later.

[snoopy369]

300 turns for a normal game??? So completing the game by ... 1800 or so? Not even close (on a game on reasonable difficulty).

[Diadem]

Ok for PHI. Let's assume you've got one city dedicated to generating GPs.

This city has 1 specialist during P1, 2 during P2, 3 during P3, 4 during P4, 6 during P5 and 10 during P6 (the last two ages get so many due to first biology and then forest preserves + national park). In addition let's assume you build 1 wonder per period in that city. You'll have national epic during the last three, and pacifism during the last 2 periods. So we have for GPP per period:

P1 Bonus = 250, Total = 500
P2 Bonus = 500, Total = 1000
P3 Bonus = 750, Total = 1500
P4 Bonus = 1000, Total = 3000
P5 Bonus = 1400, Total = 5600
P6 Bonus = 2100, Total = 8400

So the total GPP we generate during the game becomes:

PERIOD    Not PHI     PHI
  1         250       500  
  2         750      1500  
  3        1500      3000  
  4        3500      6000  
  5        7100     11000  
  6       14000     20000

Well GPs come at the following point totals: 100, 300, 600, 1000, 1500, 2100, 2800, 3600, 4500, 5500, 6600, 7800, 9100, 10500, 12000, 13600, 15300, 17100, 19000 and 21000 points.

So here's the number of GPs we get during each age (not total):

PERIOD  NPHI  PHI
  1      1     2  
  2      2     3  
  3      2     2  
  4      2     3  
  5      4     4  
  6      5     5

In other words, a philosopical leader gets an extra GP in the periods 1, 2 and 4.

Now how much is each GP worth? Since these are extra GPs in addition to normal ones, let's assume you don't need them for essentional stuff like shrines or academies. That diminishes their value. But you can still use them for golden ages or simply to lightbulb. If you're lightbulbing that's 1500 beakers, but less early age because there are no techs worth so much. So let's assign them a worth of 500, 1000 and 1500 gold each. Times the value modifier for each age, of course.

Finally the universities. You don't want them in every city. But 6 cities, 100 hammers each, that's 600 hammers (worth 2 gold each). Plus having them 4 turns earlier means say 10 sci a turn for 4 turns for 4 cities or 160 sci. So 1360 bonus total with a 2.5 multiplier.

Total bonus of Philosophical: 29150


This greatly surprises me. Phi seems to be even better than financial! Though it's a close call. And admittedly it's a bit harder to make Phi work well.

[Diadem]

Originally posted by snoopy369
300 turns for a normal game??? So completing the game by ... 1800 or so? Not even close (on a game on reasonable difficulty).

Well I'm simply using RJMs length there. But I think it's reasonable. You may not actually have won after 300 turns, but it will usually be clear that you are going to. All the important things have been done. Rarely you'll have a game which is too close to call after 300 turns.

You could count them, I guess. But their modifier will be tiny, so they won't have a major impact on your scores anyway.

[rjmatsleepers]

Originally posted by snoopy369
300 turns for a normal game??? So completing the game by ... 1800 or so? Not even close (on a game on reasonable difficulty).

Actually, I didn't say that the game lasts 300 turns. In my experience, it lasts around 400 turns. However, for a non-aggressive space race win, the final 100 turns or so are about optimal construction of the space ship rather than maximising science output. There's no point in completing the science research without having the production capability to build the space ship.

I aim to begin construction of the final part of the ship on the turn that I discover my final space ship technology and be able to construct it in my largest hammer city, having completed all other parts before the final piece is finished.

It may be that there are traits that work particularly well during this final phase, but it would take a different analysis to demonstrate this.

RJM

[rjmatsleepers]

Originally posted by Diadem
I'm sorry RJM, but I think your calculations are flawed.

Your numbers seem very unrealistic. And simple adding profit in different areas together is also very unrealistic. Early profit is worth much more than late game profit.

I agree that it would be better to discount later benefits. As you say, "Early profit is worth much more than late game profit." The fact that the benefit from organised comes so late probably distorts the results. The question therefore is what rate should we discount at. (Or in your terminology, what multipliers should we use?)

Deciding what these multipliers should be has been one of the most difficult problems from Civ I onwards. In some respects science in the early years is no more important than science in the later years. Broadly speaking, to build Apollo requires a certain amount of science to discover Rocketry and within limits it doesn't matter when these happen. Actually, to some extent later beakers are more valuable than early ones since the price of technologies go down if more civs have discovered them.

However, there are a number of respects in which early beakers are better than later. In terms of their direct effect on the research effort, early science that enables the construction of a world wonder is much more valuable than later science for the same technology after the wonder has been built by another civ. Similarly early research that gives you a great person is more valuable than later research for the same technology.

The impact on other aspects of the game can be even more important. I'm thinking of the technologies that enable you to defend yourself. Perhaps Bronze Working is the most straight forward. Getting an axeman a turn earlier may be the difference between winning and losing.

However, I am not sure how this is best translated into multipliers. In particular, my game experience suggests that the later periods should not be discounted as highly as you have done.

As far as the number of periods is concerned, I'm not sure it's necessary to divide into 6 periods rather than 3, but it does no harm and may improve the analysis.

Using your analysis as well as my own, I wouldn't want to argue which out of Organised, Financial and Philosophical is "the best". I think they are all strong traits for the type of game we are discussing. As I mentioned in my post, I don't think Philosophical and Financial (Elizabeth I) go together very well. With my play style, I think Philosophical is more effective in the early game than Financial, although there are some starts where this is not true. I find myself floundering a bit after AD 1400, so I suspect I will find Organised helpful. I've never deliberately chosen an Organised leader so I will try playing Frederick and see how it goes.

RJM

[Theben]

Originally posted by Diadem
Total bonus of Philosophical: 29150

This greatly surprises me. Phi seems to be even better than financial! Though it's a close call. And admittedly it's a bit harder to make Phi work well.

Not much of a surprise. And I think you've undercalculated. Generally here's how I use my 1st GP:

G Spy: Send out to scout, as it not only acts as a scout but can't get killed. Can nab villages from underneath standing barbs. Usually only scout nation I intend to settle it in, then settle for ESP pts. Nation is always close by and one I think will either be powerful and dangerous or have an early tech lead, so I can steal techs after Alphabet. If no good candidate may settle in capital.

G Engineer: Always to instant build wonder, unless can lightbulb Machinery. Then build early x-bows and go to war.

G Merchant: Either settle in what I think will be high city (a shrine is prioritized) or lightbulb, espec if metalcasting or paper is allowed.

G Scientist: Academy, unless religious tech can be lightbulbed.

G Artist: Save for Golden Age, or use in border area to claim land (rare).

G Priest: This is almost always my 1st, and I'll save it to get Theology or CoL 99% of the time. Otherwise a shrine (if available) or settle in city.

[Diadem]

I never thought of using Great Spies as scouts. What a brilliant idea! Gotta test that!

@ RJM

I still don't think organized is that good for a science / space ship game. The problem is that you can't really make your trait work for you. Organized is all about having large empires. This goes together better with a militaristic game. If you're maintaining a tight empire with superfast tech, organized doesn't do that much for you.

To a lesser extent this is also true a bout financial I guess. Financial also scales with empire size. Perhaps that is why phi beats fin in my calculations, because we're assuming a relatively small empire.

It'll be hard to quantify CRE and SPI.. I'm gonna have to think on how to model the advantages of those. But my feeling is that both are better than organized, for the gamestyle we're discussing here.

[rjmatsleepers]

Originally posted by Diadem

It'll be hard to quantify CRE and SPI.. I'm gonna have to think on how to model the advantages of those. But my feeling is that both are better than organized, for the gamestyle we're discussing here.

It will be interesting to see your analysis. I've been playing Gandhi a lot because I felt that SPI was very beneficial. (I'm already annoyed in my current game because I have to think hard before I change civics.)

RJM

[Theben]

Originally posted by rjmatsleepers
It will be interesting to see your analysis. I've been playing Gandhi a lot because I felt that SPI was very beneficial. (I'm already annoyed in my current game because I have to think hard before I change civics.)

I usually lose 3 turns of production early, 1 for slavery civic, one for state rel and 1 for Org Rel. MAybe a fourth for Monarchy or Rep with Pyramids. After that I try to time changes with a GA so I don't suffer more anarchy.

[Krill]

IF you try and go back and forth between civics every 5-10 turns, you can save an awful lot of anarchy. And if you can nab the pyramids and the SP...SPI can pretty much break the game IMO.

[Diadem]

Ok for Spiritual

First of the easy part, the temples. Since we're assuming a high difficulty level, you're probably not whoring religions. So you won't build too many temples. Let's say 1 temple during P1, 2 during P2, 3 during P3 and 4 during P4. That's it. You save 40 hammers for each temple (worth 80 gold). Plus you'll have that happiness earlier. Let's say those few turns of extra happiness are worth 20 gold. That's 100 gold per temple. So total bonus from the temple production bonus: 5700 gold. That's actually rather impressive. I never considered this bonus to be worth much. But I can't see where my assumptions are unfair.

Ok now the hard part. How much is not having anarchy worth? We have to switch to slavery early game, and to a religion. A bit later we'll adopt Hrule from monarchy, or something from the pyramids. And also Org. Religion. During P3 we then have the switch to bureaucracy. During P4 we get free market. Finally during P5 we switch to all the end-game civics, which takes us another 3 turns of anarchy. Furthermore we occasionally get the AI whining about their state religion or favorite civics. Let's say you yield once, during P4. So 2, 2, 1, 2, 3, 0 turns of anarchy.

That's a lot. But we have golden ages. Let's assume we can use them for 1 switch in age 3,4 and 2 switches in ages 5,6. So we effectively we get 2,2,0,1,1,0 switches.

How much does a switch cost? During P1 say 10 sci and 5 hammers. During P2 say 50 sci and 20 hammers. During P3 say 200 sci and 100 hammers. During P4 say 500 sci and 200 hammers. During P5 say 1000 sci and 400 hammers. Finally during P6 say 1200 sci and 500 hammers. Since the loss in hammers also means getting things less early, let's use 1 hammer = 3 gold here, instead of 2. Total bonus 9690.

But that's not all. There is also the flexibility that SPI allows. Quickly get slavery during war. Getting Org. Religion for a missionary-push or Theocracy during military buildup. Not having to wait for a GA for your civic switch (or alternative not having to delay your GA for it). Getting relationship bonusses with the AI for adopting their civics / religions without too much fuss. Being able to change state religion flexibily. All bonusses. And all hard to quantify. I'm going to have to guess here. I'd say they together are worth about half a switch during P3, 4, 5 and 6. So that's a further 5625 points.

Total bonus from being Spiritual: 21015

All-in-all that is as I expected. Spiritual is pretty good, but not top-notch. It got ruined in BtS by the removal of anarchy during GAs. No anarchy is worth a lot less is everybody can have it. Still a solid trait though.

[Diadem]

Oh by the way, just in case you're wondering: Of course what I'm doing is pretty much guesswork. However the method of making large simplicications to get an estimate is a fundamentally good method, that is in fact at the basis of all modern science. Still the results are as good as the figures I put in.

So please let me know if you think my assumptions are wildly unrealistic. I'll update.

Finally I'd like to point out that the answers are a surprise for me as well. I first make the estimates, then calculate the result. Which means they won't be biased towards my favorite civic, I hope.