Need warmongering advice

[DirtyMartini]

Dumb/simple question.

Here's the situation:

Both Sitting Bull and I have all the relevant middle age war techs. He's my only adjacent neighbor on a snaky continent. Let's just assume peaceful coexistence isn't the way to go -- I want to conquer him. Almost all of his cities are on hills and defended by multiple CGII and III/Drill I longbows (protective/totem pole!)with the scattered dog soldier. I have a pretty hefty stack of mixed arms, heavy on maces and trebs. What's the best way to knock him out?

1) Attack now. Macemen, knights, trebs vs fortified, highly promoted longbows on hills probably behind walls = massive carnage, but maybe it's going to take massive carnage at some ponit so I may as well get it over with. If attack now is the answer, am I better of CR'ing or collateralling my trebs? I usually CR trebs and collateral catapults, but, in this case, collateral seems better. It's not like the treb is going to do much to the actual longbow it's attacking anyway, it may as well do some collateral.

or

2) Wait, and try to gain a tech advantage. I'm currently working on Astronomy and could have gunpowder rather quickly, but I don't see any benefit to muskets. So, the way it sits, it'd be a while before steel or rifling and I'm not sure how long I'd have cannons and/or rifles before he'd get them as well.

Thoughts?

[wodan11]

Either way would work. But, you have trebs already so if it was me I'd go for that.

Ignore the macemen (except as escorts to protect your trebs and as "clean up duty" after your trebs have done their job). You'll probably lose 1.5-2 trebs per city, so plan ahead and build more.

Wodan

[DirtyMartini]

That's clearly my preference and my gut feeling as well. You may be a little optimistic in your treb loss estimate -- he's dug in pretty well. Would you go collateral or city raider on the trebs?

I'm particularly concerned about the second city in line -- 1 CGIII/Drill I longbow, four CGII/Drill I longbows and a dog soldier, on a hill, with walls, fortified. I don't remember all the boni, but it's gotta be like a treb at 8 v. longbow at 15 or so.

[wodan11]

CR on the trebs.

Something else you can try... you have to gauge it and play it by ear... is not to send in your trebs all at the beginning. Do this:
1) Treb
2) CR-promoted Mace
3) Treb
4) Additional Trebs as needed

What this does is the first treb does collateral to everybody except the first defender. Then you suicide a mace against that guy. Thus, at the start of #3 every defender is wounded.

If he has more than a half-dozen defenders, you might have to do this a couple of times.

As for your concerns: keep in mind the defender will get those bonuses only against the FIRST attack. After that, he's wounded, and his net-effective strength will drop fast. Meanwhile yours will stay intact.

(And, the walls will be knocked down... they don't mean anything here. The CGII/III on hills is concerning, I agree.)

Just make sure you have enough trebs... the worst would be to run out with the job half done.

Wodan

[snoopy369]

Go ahead and move on him. If he only has a few longbows per city, you'll have an easy time with it frankly. The rule of thumb with the AI is, "Equal Power and Equal Tech favor the Human" - ie, you use your tech better and your power more efficiently than the AI, so on equal terms you should win. If you are lacking in either power or tech, you may lose... but tech is less important than power.

I generally agree with wodan's assessment; 2 trebs/city is about right. If he has 3 longbows (even CD3/Drill1) per city, then I'd guess you need about 3 or 4 trebs to sufficiently weaken him to be able to have good odds with the macemen; you'll lose a bit over half of what you send in, probably (retreats or actual victory retreats will save the rest). Assuming the worst, plan to lose 3 trebs/city, either to actual losses or to needing to heal (you can use them for barrage but not for attacking at that point).

The second city in line is a bit stronger of course, and you probably need 5 or 6 trebs for 5 longbows (usually it's about 1 treb/longbow for between 3 and 7 longbows, less for >7 longbows and more for <3 longbows). You'll knock down the wall and such first, but you'll lose at least 4 of those trebs; i'd guess 2 will probably retreat, but it could be 1 or 3 easily.

If he has 6 cities that you want to take, and you're within reasonable resupply range, and most of the cities are 3 longbows, i'd start with:

10 trebs
8 macemen
6 crossbows

and go in; then resupply with primarily trebs and some macemen as you find out your losses. That stack is enough to take at least 3 cities more than likely, and keep them (hence the crossbows). You'll probably lose 3-4 macemen and most of your trebs by the third city, but that's where resupply comes in

If you're a longer distance away and can't as easily resupply, then go in with
15 trebs
10 macemen
6 crossbows

This of course also depends on the size of his counter-army, assumably it exists somewhere; bring enough mixed arms to defeat that as well when it comes.

[DirtyMartini]

Ha...good point about the walls being knocked down.

I have started using the attack order you suggest, particularily when I'm at the end of an offensive and don't have a very big stack of trebs/cats left to take those last few cities.

[Supr49er]

Originally posted by wodan11
CR on the trebs...

Wodan

So you don't use or like the Barrage and Accuracy promotion for trebs? How does CR equate with Barrage? I haven't tried the CR line of promotions with my siege weapons yet.

[snoopy369]

[q="wodan"]1) Treb
2) CR-promoted Mace
3) Treb
4) Additional Trebs as needed[/q]

Definitely ... this is a very useful strategy. Usually your macemen will be easier to replace and less likely to die than your trebs, and this could save you several trebs, even if it does cost you a maceman...

[snoopy369]

Originally posted by Supr49er


So you don't use or like the Barrage and Accuracy promotion for trebs? How does CR equate with Barrage? I haven't tried the CR line of promotions with my siege weapons yet.

I never use accuracy, it's the least useful promotion in the game. Have enough trebs to take down the wall and it is irrelevant... and you need something for your weakened trebs to do.

Barrage is what I primarily use, since the damage the treb does I think is the same regardless of its bonuses (should check the math thread I guess on this). It's definitely the same no matter if the treb wins or loses. My trebs will lose often enough that I think you get more out of barrage than you do out of CR; particularly on the treb, where it's +25% of 4, not of 8 (so it turns your 8 into a 9). (*This is unless CR is a promotion that takes away from the opponent's points; that would be more useful. I'm not ever able to remember which is which.)

It's always useful to have a few CR though for those attacks where it makes the difference... when it's 0.1% use barrage, when it's 40%:60% use CR (pushes that to 60%:40%). I use CR more on cannons, who are for their time a much more powerful unit than trebs (until infantry, cannons are 12 to riflemen's 14, and rifles are often not CD promoted so it's much closer than the longbows; I also think the initial power is relevant here, but i'll have to check the math thread. More cannons survive than trebs, for me, anyhow.)

[wodan11]

Originally posted by Supr49er


So you don't use or like the Barrage and Accuracy promotion for trebs? How does CR equate with Barrage? I haven't tried the CR line of promotions with my siege weapons yet.

IMO Barrage and Accuracy are both short cuts at the cost of additional risk. They can allow you to "get by" with fewer trebs, but you'll lose more of the trebs you do have. Or, they allow you to knock the walls down faster, which effectively means you get get by with fewer trebs. If you have enough trebs, the walls will come down soon enough anyway.

Wodan

[wodan11]

Originally posted by snoopy369


I never use accuracy, it's the least useful promotion in the game. Have enough trebs to take down the wall and it is irrelevant... and you need something for your weakened trebs to do.

Barrage is what I primarily use, since the damage the treb does I think is the same regardless of its bonuses (should check the math thread I guess on this). It's definitely the same no matter if the treb wins or loses. My trebs will lose often enough that I think you get more out of barrage than you do out of CR; particularly on the treb, where it's +25% of 4, not of 8 (so it turns your 8 into a 9). (*This is unless CR is a promotion that takes away from the opponent's points; that would be more useful. I'm not ever able to remember which is which.)

It's always useful to have a few CR though for those attacks where it makes the difference... when it's 0.1% use barrage, when it's 40%:60% use CR (pushes that to 60%:40%). I use CR more on cannons, who are for their time a much more powerful unit than trebs (until infantry, cannons are 12 to riflemen's 14, and rifles are often not CD promoted so it's much closer than the longbows; I also think the initial power is relevant here, but i'll have to check the math thread. More cannons survive than trebs, for me, anyhow.)

Snoopy I agree with this analysis but the problem (for me anyway) is the difference between theory and execution.

Basically, you have to plan ahead and devote a treb to either line (mixing lines doesn't usually work for me). Ultimately, especially with a multi-city campaign, I end up with the "wrong" kind of treb for what I need.

And, regardless, ultimately barrage simply comes down to being a time saver, as I said. My personal tactic is simply to mass produce the trebs, and it's not an issue. Before I start the war, I make sure I have enough trebs to take the first 2-3 cities (with anticipated casualties). By the time I get to the 4th city I can have produced additional trebs to get the needed replacements for it and successive cities.

So, for me, it's CR all the way.

(Exception is Cats or Cannons, which I like to have a couple of anti-stack units using Combat and Barrage mostly. These are used when I get DOWed or when the AI sends in a stack against me.)

Wodan

[snoopy369]

Mixing is the best plan, but if you can't mix for some reason, I think you'll find barrage may be the best solution.

(These numbers are whole cloth, and the difference lies in the real numbers, but think along these lines. I'm not sure of the Treb's withdraw percent, or the collateral damage numbers, in particular.)
I'm imagining 4 longbows at +150% (6.0 -> 15.0 at defaul) due to bonuses (45% CR, 25% city, 25% fortify, 50% hill, 5% drill1 equivalent) That number is actually probably somewhat higher (particularly drill), but +150% is a good number for math, so we'll use it.

Option 1: CR
First treb has 0.1% chance + 20% withdraw = 0.2
Maceman to weaken the longbow = 0.0
Second treb now faces a set of 5.0/6.0 longbows, say, and at 9.0 to the 12.50 longbows has a 5% chance to win; plus .2*.95 or .19 chance to withdraw, so .24
Third treb now faces a set of 4.0 longbows (say the lead bow also lost about 1.0), so 20% chance at 9.0 vs 10.0; plus .16 withdraw, or .36
Fourth treb now faces a set of 3.0 longbows, so 9.0 vs 7.5, for a 80% chance to win, plus .04 withdraw, or .84

Now your macemen are free to go at the longbows. You took four trebs, and have .84+.36+.24+.2, plus a dead maceman. That gives you 1.64 trebs left, 2.36 dead.

Second set: Barrage trebs
First treb, 0.2 chance surviving
Maceman dies
Second treb now faces a set of 4.8 longbows, which is 12, versus 8, which is about 4% chance, plus .19 to withdraw, or .23
Third treb faces a set of 3.6 longbows, which is 9, versus 8, which is about 20% again, so .36 with w/d.
Fourth treb faces a set of 2.4 longbows (can they go this far down, I forget), 8.0 vs 6.0, or 80% chance again for .84
.2+.23+.36+.84 is 1.63 trebs left / 2.37 trebs dead ... remarkably similar, no?

I'm not sure of the numbers, so it's possible that they're not precisely correct; but the point is, there are situations where one is better than the other - but it's not the exchange of 'short term vs long term' that you suggest. The first is going to die regardless against a 15.0 longbow (excepting withdrawl chance); beyond that, the barrage trebs help themselves out by lowering the defender strength, which can be as useful - or more - than having a bonus themselves...

[rah]

I'm a big CR fan for Tribs.
Once they get to 2CR they can usually pick off those Longbowmen at a high enough percentage that they get to 3CR and they usually survive till muskets.

[wodan11]

Yeah, that's the one thing you miss in your analysis Snoopy. The impact of having multiple promotions. I'd be interested to see a comparison of CR3 vs Barrage3.

Wodan

[snoopy369]

CR3 is what, 65% extra? That takes a 4 to a (+165%) 10.5 attack - still 2/3 of a CD3 longbow on a hill in a city. Barrage3 has additional bonuses, doesn't it (bonus to muskets or melee or something?) ... that might make the differernce for it, i'm not sure.

One other thing in the consideration is if you only want to use the first 2 trebs. Either way you have ~0.5 trebs remaining after 2; but in option 1 you have units at 4.0/6.0, while in option 2 you have units at 3.6/6.0. That difference is quite significant when you start with the macemen; a 4.0 -> 10.0 longbow beats a maceman 50/50, while a 3.6 -> 9.0 longbow loses to a maceman most of the time (a CR1 maceman, for example, which is at 8.0+25% or 10.0). That 1.0 means the difference between 50/50 and about 70/30 or better... (I got some of the above numbers wrong, particularly the 8.0 to 6.0 barrage 3rd treb, that is really a 90% chance I think)