Shrine or settled prophet

[couerdelion]

I’ve seen some posts in the past where early prophets have been settled in a holy city before a shrine is built and since I am about three turns from getting a prophet in one game, I thought it worthwhile to think a little about this question.

Compare and contrast the two

Settled Prophet gives 2h+5g +multipliers + civic/wonder bonuses every turn

Shrine gives

1) 1gpt per city with religion
2) 1gpt for each city which naturally acquires the religion
3) 1gpt for each city with acquires the religion as a result of the shrine influence
4) Religious civic bonuses for each city owned by civ which acquires the religion as a result of the shrine
5) Culture bonus
6) Extra priest slots

Since the gold multipliers will probably be the same in each case, we can probably ignore them from the equation and simply look at base gold comparison. For simplicity we might also ignore Sistine Chapel and Representation bonus while on the shrine side we should probably exclude from our equation the priests and culture benefits.

For sake of argument, I will assume a “base” religious civic of Organised Religion being so close on the tech tree to be a minor tech investment.

If we do this, our hammer benefit is likely to be a more on the side of the shrine than on the side of the settled prophet. A simple whip should be able to get an extra 1hpt per city per turn out of the Org Rel bonus so all we need is to get three extra cities to acquire the religion across our civilisation. This might be a tall order so the comparison of hammer advantage gained is unproven.

The gold benefit of the shrine is much clearer. Since the 5g from the settled prophet is fixed, we have a constant stream of 5gpt forever. By contrast, the shrine gold increases with each new city that acquires the religion so even if it starts lower (let’s say 3 cities), the value of that stream of income can be much higher.

In mathematical terms, if we apply an expected growth rate of 1.5% per turn (reasonable for Epic speed), then the value of 5gpt is 5/1.5% = 333 gold

Using the 3 cities converted, we might assume that this value increases at around 0.75% per turn. This is a rather crude assumption because we will presumably want to spread the religion actively through missionaries. Ultimately there will be a limit on how much the expansion will happen naturally but to give an indication, this increase rate assumes that it will take 40 turns for the next city to convert naturally, and another 30 turns for one more. After 100 turns, only 3 extra cities will have converted so I don’t think that this is an optimistic assumption.

The value of this increasing stream of gold is therefore 3gpt/(1.5%-0.75%) = 400 gold

So it seems that the gold argument is slightly in favour of the shrine on this basis. In fact, I think it highly likely that the early religious expansion will be greater than 0.75% per turn so the gold value of the shrine will be much greater than that from the prophet. Possibly, this would be enough to justify a shrine even if there starting point were only to have one or two cities with the religion.

The shrine is certainly the more optimistic choice to make but I think it is also the best one too.

[absimiliard]

Fascinating analysis sir. Fascinating.

I've never done the math out myself. My gut has always agreed with you however. Consistently my first prophet has been used to found my state-religion's shrine. I often don't use a second prophet that way, feeling that a secondary religion simply won't spread so far. But the extremely high GPT value of the first shrine usually overwhelms me and thus snags my first prophet's attentions.

I do however occasionally debate whether or not I might do better settling him. The debate comes from the hammers, the GPP, and my ability to choose the city he settles in. Which city the shrine is in is fixed. So on occasion, especially with a later religion, I've wondered if settling the prophet in my capitol might not be a better choice.

I haven't yet done so. But I do on occasion debate it.

-abs

[couerdelion]

Settled Prophets don't generate GPP.

[Common Sensei]

Keep in mind though, that if you have a case where it's apparent that the Ironworks will go in the same city Wall Street goes, that's a notch in the pro column to settle a Great Prophet in that city, since the hammers he gives will be magnified as well as the gold.

[couerdelion]

I suppose I was thinking specifically about an early Prophet and the first shrine so that factors such as Representation, Bureaucracy were dim and distant goals that would have a very small impact on the comparison. In this situation, even the location of the Ironworks would be unknown – at least to me. Later on, one could assume 2nd or 3rd Prophets would be more likely to be settled.

[Quillan]

I always use my first prophet to build a shrine if one is available. If not, I settle it unless I'm planning on taking a holy city that's lacking a shrine. Most of the time, after the first I'll settle them. Secondary religions don't generally spread well enough to make the shrines as valuable as the first one.

[absimiliard]

Originally posted by couerdelion
Settled Prophets don't generate GPP.

Doh! Very good point.

Guess it's doubly good I've always gone w. my gut and built that shrine instead.

-abs

[Swiss Pauli]

Re: Shrine or settled prophet

Originally posted by couerdelion
I’ve seen some posts in the past where early prophets have been settled in a holy city before a shrine is built

That's a weird thing to do; if it were between settling in the capital and building a shrine in non-capital holy city there might be something to debate, but the above scenario seems to be an obviously sub-optimal play.

[sjm]

I think that unless you're playing on a very small (or weird) map, it's obvious that the shrine is the better deal. It's only on the smallest maps that you won't want to build a shrine. Example: you're playing a tiny world, you're on a continent with room for only a few cities, and you can't reach any other continents by galley. In this case, the shrine will only be worth a couple of gold per turn for a long time to come - in which time you may well pop a second prophet for the shrine.

Otherwise the shrine is worth so much more gold over the course of the game - and if managed correctly will allow you to run at 100% science all game if you so desire, that it's practically a no-brainer. Especially if you've got neighbors, building the shrine has 2 massive benefits:

It spreads the religion for you - the easiest way is by researching sailing and relying on sea routes to spread your religion. Each time the religion spreads, you gain gold.

Spreading the religion to neighbours results in them converting to the same religion as you, resulting in a game-long boost to diplomacy. Even if they go Free Religion at some point, the initial bonus for sharing a religion means even the most reclusive leaders will trade with you, racking up those diplomatic bonuses. Allies are always a good thing!

[rah]

MOst of the time I agree that the first one is always the shrine.

But there are a few instances where, You got the religion later and other religions have already spread so your's won't spread that much by itself. AND you have great need for the 5+multi right away to finance another city, or war where I have occasionally grabbed the money. And it usually coincides with have a hammer poor capital.

[Ming]

It's nice to see that nobody is recommending using the prophet to get a free science

As usual, I agree with Rah. If it's early in the game, I will almost always build the shrine. It is a rare situation when I don't do that. However, any additional prophets get settled.

[Arrian]

Shrine, 99 times out of 100. 1/100 maybe I'll lightbulb Theology, just for the hell of it.

Additional prophets are largely settled, unless I have the much-coveted double-holy city, or capture a holy city for a wide-spread religion that lacks a shrine.

-Arrian

[DirtyMartini]

Someone alluded to this above, but what about the situation where you generate a prophet very early (say an obelisk fueled prophet with Egypt)? Even if I've founded a religion, it's unlikely to have spread to 5 cities at that point, and you're likely to generate another prophet before too long. In that case, I favor settling the first and waiting on building the shrine. But I guess that seems pretty obvious.

[DirtyMartini]

Sorry for the double post, but I think this is the more interesting issue --

Originally posted by Quillan
I always use my first prophet to build a shrine if one is available. If not, I settle it unless I'm planning on taking a holy city that's lacking a shrine. Most of the time, after the first I'll settle them. Secondary religions don't generally spread well enough to make the shrines as valuable as the first one.

Example: you generate your first GP from Stonehenge/Oracle -- a prophet. You haven't founded a religion and don't look like your going to be able to do so. However, one of the religions is looking like it's spreading well, and you fully intend to capture the holy city. Knowing the the AI often fail to build the shrine, do you hold onto that prophet to build the shrine post-capture, or use it for something esle? If you hold it, how long is too long? I find myself in that situation not uncommonly -- after the first GP, I usually end up with a (purposely) poluted GP pool and can't count on a later prophet. I really want to make sure I get to build the shrine, but hate having a GP sitting around doing nothing/wasting 5gp/2hammers+modifiers per turn.

[Swiss Pauli]

Originally posted by DirtyMartini Example: you generate your first GP from Stonehenge/Oracle -- a prophet. You haven't founded a religion and don't look like your going to be able to do so. However, one of the religions is looking like it's spreading well, and you fully intend to capture the holy city. Knowing the the AI often fail to build the shrine, do you hold onto that prophet to build the shrine post-capture, or use it for something esle? If you hold it, how long is too long? I find myself in that situation not uncommonly -- after the first GP, I usually end up with a (purposely) poluted GP pool and can't count on a later prophet. I really want to make sure I get to build the shrine, but hate having a GP sitting around doing nothing/wasting 5gp/2hammers+modifiers per turn.

Better to use the Prophet now (lightbulb/settle) and then *not* pollute the GP pool too much and generate a second prophet. Given that it should take a fair amount of turns to capture your target holy city, you'll get better value this way and there's always a chance that the AI will build the shrine in the meantime.