Do you know you're going to win?

[Tattila the Hun]

And I don't mean in middle game, half the globe under your boot. But in 6000 BC, you look around the land around your newly found city, and know, that you will win?

Or, in percentages, you start a game on your usual level, how sure are you of victory?

[Solver]

6000 BC is about 2000 years before I begin .

These days, I'm not so sure. With Blake's AI, which learns new tricks every day, one can never be sure...

[joncnunn]

I think if your 99.9%+ sure you'll win the game on turn 1, your playing a difficulty level or two too low.

[Solver]

Good point. In my book, if you draw a poor start but are still confident of winning, it's a level too low.

[Will9]

Ussally I'm not sure I'll win until I make that first swarm into an enemys capital.

[DrSpike]

Yes.

[Addled Platypus]

I am about 50% sure

won some I thought I would lose, vice versa on the well played level

even less on a new level

should I even bother with Sid level ?

[DrSpike]

There isn't one.

[Adagio]

It's not until I've seen most of the world that I'll know if I have a good chance of winning or not
With Blakes AI you never know for sure what the AIs are up to

[Qwertqwert]

Even on Monarch level (which is a high level for me), if I hit Rome, Mali, or Persia, I am confident of winning unless I draw a garbage spot.

[Herod]

I always play on a fairly easy level because I hate losing. Ive only been playing Civ4 for a few weeks but after many years of C3C where I used to play on Warlord or Regent I have rarely lost a game although some have been very close.

Of course I like a challenge, but I stop enjoying it when I get overtaken as I prefer the later game to the early game and if I know im not going to make the later game then I dont want to play.
The game is a little harder for me anyway as I hardly ever trade techs, prefer to 'go it alone'.