Can anyone explain the combat %?

[morganja]

So what everyone is saying is that my 10 for 21 75% streak and 1 for 5 90% streak is just an anomoly? A very strange one to start a gmae off with.

I understand statistics, at least to the point where over a number of samples 75% should be close to 75% and 90% should be close to 90%.


It is definitely updated to the latest one. At least when I press the check for updates button it returns a message saying I have the latest version. What is the latest version number soi I can double check?

[Kepler63]

Any set of 5 trials can be expected to produce anomolous behavior. The sample size is just too small.

10x21 at .75 per trial doesn't seem outside the range of possibility, either.

In the tests people have posted, it certainly seems like the percentages have converged on expected value as the number of trials increases.

A lot of this is selective perception. You flip a coin a hundred times ang get 50 heads and everything's fine. The next 11 flips are heads. Even a stats person starts to feel uncomfortable...

[mkorin]

Originally posted by morganja


I understand statistics, at least to the point where over a number of samples 75% should be close to 75% and 90% should be close to 90%.

If you look at my spreadsheet, after 1000 battles, all of the precent ranges are within acceptable error. To be honest, 1000 battles really is not a significant enough sample, but it does show the numbers converging where they should.

Also the current version is 2.08
Mike

[Thedrin]

Warlords: 2.08
Vanilla: 1.61

When I was using Vanilla the automatic update function didn't work for me so I had to do it all manually. (It works fine in Warlords)

[foudres]

Originally posted by morganja
So what everyone is saying is that my 10 for 21 75% streak and 1 for 5 90% streak is just an anomoly? A very strange one to start a gmae off with.

I understand statistics, at least to the point where over a number of samples 75% should be close to 75% and 90% should be close to 90%.


It is definitely updated to the latest one. At least when I press the check for updates button it returns a message saying I have the latest version. What is the latest version number soi I can double check?

Hey you know about statistics so you should know that if there is at least a chance that you can loose your unit there is also a change you will loose 1000000 of those unit in a row.

The probability is small, but not 0.


That the interrest part of random... If it always happenned the same way... like 50% odd with kills and wins exactly repartited (1 win, 1 loose, 1 win, 1 loose, 1 win, 1 loose ...) you could predict the result of the next attack and that's bad.


Even if you just loosed 10 attack with 90% odd, With the 11th attack with 90% there is still one case out of 10 where you will loose. And you can't predict if it will happend or not before really attacking.


The odd are correctly computed it's just that you where not lucky thoses times.


Like other said the problem is human think not like rationnal machine. If there is a 1% chance that a bad thing happen, human think it will never happen.

But hey they can't spend money every week or day on game with the hope of becoming rich... When the probability is about 0.0000001%. It's true there is almost always one or two winner on thoses game but for what ? 10 000 000 of players or even more !

[Diadem]

Statistics is a lot more clumpy than most people realise. If you'd ask people to write down a random series of 1s and 0s most people would write down something like "10100110010101011001101110101001010110101". But that's not a typical result. True random strings are much more clumpy, with long sequences of 1s and 0s occuring reculary.

This is a sequence of really random numbers (well as random as you can get with a computer) I just generated: 01111000110000101101

You see, it's a lot more clumpy than the other one.

[Addled Platypus]

I have won some, I knew I should of lost

how about thou ?

[Solver]

Woo hoo! I just won a 3.8% battle. The next battle was 31%, and I won it too. Quite excellent.

[Adagio]

Originally posted by Platypus Rex
I have won some, I knew I should of lost

I've only won a few battles with 20-30% chance of winning, I've never won a battle with less than 20% (but have retreated a few times)

[Jaybe]

Originally posted by Adagio
I've only won a few battles with 20-30% chance of winning, I've never won a battle with less than 20% (but have retreated a few times)

Then you should make more attacks at such low odds, so you can win some.

[Virdrago]

It works. Trust me. I've won a couple of <5% in a row, so it works both ways.

[DrSpike]

Yeah you particularly notice it with cat attacks sometimes.

[Adagio]

But you guys are forgetting my luck, I can lose 10 50/50 in a row... just look at the mafia games