You decide - who lives? who dies?

[couerdelion]

So 5.5 vs 5.1 (with first strike) gives a 2 in 3 chance of a kill?

Still looks a bit high.

[SirIlya]

Originally posted by couerdelion
So 5.5 vs 5.1 (with first strike) gives a 2 in 3 chance of a kill?

Still looks a bit high.

Oops, I forgot to put the first strike into the calculator. BRB with updated odds.

Here are the values with first strike:

Round 1 (Archer with City Garrison I defending):

Cover 61%
Combat II 58%
Shock/Medic 28% with average damage to archer of 53 hps.

Round 2 (base Archer defending):
Cover 69%
Combat II 65%
Shock/Medic 59%

[Diadem]

Well that's an answer, but to the wrong question

Here we have a defender we will likely take out in 1 hit. And even if that first hit does no damage at all, which is very unlikely, the 2nd hit will still probably win. The odds of taking the city are thus overwhelming. It thus becomes a question of conserving units, and since your mosts valuable unit (the medic) is also the weakest in combat, it is entirely logical to attack with him last. The other 3 units are a matter of which one you value most, based on the rest of the game.

An interesting question is: In a situation where odds of winning are not very high, what gives the best chance? Strong unit first, then mob up with weak, or the other way around?

[bobshiznit]

My prefered order here is:

Combat II
Cover

40% chance of winning both.
13% chance of losing both.
47% chance of winning just 1.

If you attack with the cover 1st
you very minimally lose some change of winning both and minimally increase the chance of losing both.

In either case you have roughly an 87% chance of having at least 3 units after you capture the city.
(assuming mop up is easy)

The only other choice that would seem reasonable is to throw the shock/medic in the fire then the cover.

19% winning both
22% losing both
59% winning just 1

here there is only a 78% chance of having 3 units after the capture of the city.