Situation--What Would You Do? (advice requested)

[Lost Soul 1]

I'm playing vanilla Civ4 (have Warlords but haven't made the leap yet since I still a relative noob).

I'm playing Noble/Terra/Normal Speed/6 AIs/no game winner exclusions.

Currently I'm running Hereditary/Bureaucracy/Emancipation/Free Market/Theology

I'm at roughly 40% pop, 46% land area for a domination victory...year is 1850. And I'd like to close out for a domination victory before the mid-20th century (if possible).

I'm #1 in most statistical categories (other than life expectancy, I believe).

My two biggest rivals (Cathy, Saladin) have a defensive pact (of course) and I'd like to take on Saladin who is bordering my western frontier on the main continent. (I have the second main land mass nearly fully settled, with a few small AI enclaves spread here and there.)

Saladin has a pop of 13% and a land area of 14% so that would get me nearly all the way to the land area threshold if I could conquer his current holdings (all concentrated on my western border other than one small tundra-terrained island). Cathy is a half-known since I don't have open borders with her (earlier wars she started and her placement on the other side of the main continent haven't interested me to date to explore), so I don't know what here exact military unit makeup looks like, but she's close to Saladin in the Power Level graph.

OK, hopefully, enough background info...here's my question:

I have enough military to do a good job of displacing--or severely crippling--Saladin even though he and Cathy are a few techs (Artillery, probably Rocketry for Saladin) ahead of me. I don't believe if things keep going the way they have for the past 20-30 years that I will overtake either of them technically to be a better invasion force later on.

My concern is what kind of force (how much--Riflemen, Artillery, Cavalry mostly) Cathy is likely to bring if I declare war on Saladin? I don't think I can take both of these AIs doing simultaneous war with me--unless Cathy declares war via the def pact but really doesn't march in any earnestness. I've investigated getting one of the other two AIs to declare war on either Cathy or Saladin, but even with lots of tech bribes they're not interested.

I've been biding my time for 10 or so turns hoping to get a tech/military advantage against Saladin, but it doesn't seem to be working (I'm at 70% tech rate, if that matters).

Saladin has 6 main cities within his immediate empire, a couple well fortified with Riflemen, SAM (only 1), Artillery (a couple each) and Cavalry. It will take me at least 3-4 turns to conquer 2-3 of these cities (probably the less defended ones).

But, my main question is: How likely is Cathy to bring a lot of military through Saladin's land to fight me due to the def pact between them. Is it worth the possible game-icide to go ahead with declaring war on Saladin in hopes that I can (1) conquer most/all of his cities for the land area, and (2) that Cathy is a def pact participant in name only?

LostSoul1

[jkelly]

Defensive pact problem

You're looking at a diplomacy problem (your target has a defensive pact), so take a look at a diplomacy solution. Check to see if it is possible to bribe either Saladin or Catherine into declaring war on a third party. That will end their defensive pact. Catherine is probably the better choice, as you won't have to worry about the third party taking cities that you want for your victory conditions. If you can only bribe Saladin, do give him a few turns to move his units to the front before you attack, so that you won't have to face his entire force when you do declare war.

If the above isn't an option, consider bribing someone else into war with Catherine or Saladin, which will entangle the two of them in that war. Entering into a two-on-one war when you're at a tech disadvantage may not be "game-icide", given how poor the AI is at accomplishing anything other than pillaging during wartime, but it isn't ideal for a speedy victory.

[Blake]

Declare war, breaking the defensive pact. Then bribe the other AI's into the war - since they'll now only be declaring war on one party they'll be much more affordable.

[Diadem]

Also the AI is more willing to declare war on someone who is already in war, so if you want to bribe people into a war, it's easiest if you are already in it yourself.

AIs are not very good attackers. She (Cathy) will definitely send a stack of units at you if you declare on Saladin, AIs always do, even when it's suicide (once I declared on someone who had a vassal. We both had dozens of tanks and the vassal had a grand total of 8 infantry. He still send half of them into the battlefield. Idiot.), but most of her military will remain at home to defend, and since you aren't attacking her you don't have to worry about that.

And option is to ignore Saladin's cities at the start, and only fight his and Cathy's field force. Once you've eliminated it, heal your units and attack Saladin's cities.

[Arrian]

I'm at roughly 40% pop, 46% land area

You've won. Pump out military units and go kill whomever you please.

-Arrian

[Lost Soul 1]

Thanks for the suggestions

I'm still a bit hesitant to declare war on Saladin (or Cathy--although she's one empire away, but not that far away for her inevitable stacks to reach my western front). As I mentioned previously, I've tried to bribe any/all of the remaining civs (Ghengis, Cyrus, Capac), but none would declare war against either Cathy or Saladin. I was hoping I could find one, with enough tech bribes, to dissolve the def pact so that I could swoop down on Saladin. Alas, not to be...

OK, I guess it's decision time (at least, it will be tonight when I can return to the game). Half of me is prone to gamble on declaring war on Saladin and see how well I can do against his forces...plus Cathy's. I'm pretty sure, though, that their combined forces, even with someone else bribed into the game to declare war on them AFTER I go to war with Saladin, will probably bring me to my knees and potentially sacrifice a good portion of my western cities (I believe I have 7-8 cities on the main continent)...and hope that one or both don't launch a galleon or two toward my "New World" holdings which are only protected on each coast by a frigate or two, max.

BTW, to Arrian, you probably think I have the game in hand, but I'm still 16% or so short of the land area % needed to win. That's a lot to make up--and I've been in similar situations in previous games. Unless I attack someone, that percentage continues to hover right where's it's at--unfortunately, the other AIs don't seem/want to declare war on one another and it turns out to my having to attack to limit/halt a space race progress that looms.

What to do, what to do. I would be easier to choose if I had more than Rifles, Cavs and a few Infantry. Some cannon and no artillery yet (and not researching that tech yet). Lots of cats, a fair amount of grenadiers and a sprinkling of knights, pikes, macemen, crossbowmen. At least of those set to attack (I'm somewhat entrenched--not as well as I would like, but then am I ever?--in my cities with Rifles, Muskets, long/crossbows, etc.) I foresee the next ten to fifteen turns as being the only real possibility I'll have to stem the tech growth and military equivalency that Saladin (and Cathy?) are putting up with much smaller (land- and pop-wise) empires.

I guess this is how I learn what not to do for previous games...


LostSoul1

[Metaliturtle]

Drop your tax rate down, use the gold to upgrade units, invade. Best way to foil someone's space program is to force them to make units (and sacrifice their gold/pop/hammers in the process).

[jbp26]

Re: Thanks for the suggestions

Originally posted by Lost Soul 1
I'm still a bit hesitant to declare war on Saladin (or Cathy--although she's one empire away, but not that far away for her inevitable stacks to reach my western front). As I mentioned previously, I've tried to bribe any/all of the remaining civs (Ghengis, Cyrus, Capac), but none would declare war against either Cathy or Saladin. I was hoping I could find one, with enough tech bribes, to dissolve the def pact so that I could swoop down on Saladin. Alas, not to be...

Do what the other people told you; bribe Saladin or Catherine into starting a war (to break the pact) or brine the other civs once you've declard war (because then its cheaper).

BTW, to Arrian, you probably think I have the game in hand, but I'm still 16% or so short of the land area % needed to win. That's a lot to make up--and I've been in similar situations in previous games. Unless I attack someone, that percentage continues to hover right where's it's at--unfortunately, the other AIs don't seem/want to declare war on one another and it turns out to my having to attack to limit/halt a space race progress that looms.

What he meant was with such a huge majority of the population and land, you should consequently have a vast lead in production and commerce- and thus, figuratively speaking, the game is already won. Use your superior production to build a juggernaut of an army that can plow through two civs.

What to do, what to do. I would be easier to choose if I had more than Rifles, Cavs and a few Infantry. Some cannon and no artillery yet (and not researching that tech yet). Lots of cats, a fair amount of grenadiers and a sprinkling of knights, pikes, macemen, crossbowmen. At least of those set to attack (I'm somewhat entrenched--not as well as I would like, but then am I ever?--in my cities with Rifles, Muskets, long/crossbows, etc.) I foresee the next ten to fifteen turns as being the only real possibility I'll have to stem the tech growth and military equivalency that Saladin (and Cathy?) are putting up with much smaller (land- and pop-wise) empires.

If you're on the assault you dont need a stack entrenched in your cities- you need everything available at the front.

another way to see if you're prepared for a war is to check the power graph. if the power of catherine and saladin combined is dramatically greater than yours, you probably wont beat them both, but as long as its reasonably close, you should win easily.

[rah]

Build a few farms outside your fat cross near the border. The attacking troops will pause on open ground to pillage the farms. use your cats and finish off their mobile stacks. Rinse repeat and they'll be down to their city garrisons. Then they're easy meat. (except for their caps) But by then your units should be promoted up far enough to finish the job, (and you'll have a few more cannons)

The main trick is making them use their artillary on solo units so you can take them without having your large stacks damaged to the point of ineffectiveness. It's best to take out their artillary in your territory where their movement is limited. In their territory they can move up and attack the same turn.