A model for Global Trade and Commerce

[mjs0]

I posted this (minus a few tweaks) over at the other Civ board but I'm aware that many people only hang out here and would love their feedback as well.
(Apologies to those that have seen this twice)

The global trade model in Civ4 could do with a lot of help!

A good interface to a model of a complex system does not in itself have to be complex. So, even though the ideas discussed can sound complex the final interface that abstracts and presents control over the model of that complexity can end up simple and clear -- if it is well designed. The end result should add a lot of fun to the game if done right.

So...here is a strawman for what I would like to see for a trade/resource model, I am not particularly attached to individual details (just the overarching concepts) so please don't hold back with your comments. (I can't believe I felt the need to say that on this board of all places.)

I would like to see the following new concepts

• Large and small scale reserves of natural mineral resources
  Small Scale:
  You would have the same probability as today of access to small scale resources in your territory.
  These are for strategic use such as military construction and would appear on the map when you get the appropriate tech as they do today.
  Large Scale:
  These are rare, and are distributed randomly on the map. They do not appear until 'found'.
  They become necessary in the later game for economic and social reasons so you have to prospect and explore promising regions and would be forced into trading for them if you do not own them.
  You could prospect in your territory and in, what for want of a better term I will call, 3rd world territories -- one of the reasons for minor nations
  My big selling point for this part is that it keeps exploration, and the associated uncertainties and thrill of discovery, alive into the modern era. If you are like me the early ages of exploration are one of the most interesting parts of the game. Uncertainty is the key, the game is not predictable during this stage. Once you see everything and know who your neighbours are and how strong they are you can predict a lot of what will happen next.
  
• A Global Commodities Market
  This would arise around the time of the industrial revolution, it would have an effect on your treasury based on whether you are a net producer or consumer of each commodity. The price of commodities would be determined by a simple supply/demand model. If you are the first to join you will have few customers but as more civs become industrialized demand increases and so do prices, plus supplies become available to you of new materials
  There would be no micro-management, the model does everything; as a consumer you have to have these materials so you pay for them; as a producer you can choose to restrict supply and drive up prices but the diplomatic ramifications and retaliatory trade war should make you think! Examples of commodities are mostly the obvious mineral resources such as oil, iron, copper, and aluminium but could also include (if the model remained simple and depending on the era), others such as timber, wool, rubber, cotton and rare metals .

Why do I want to do this?

• Well, I believe these concepts would liven up the late game by providing an additional dimension to the game via trade and the global economy that comes into play when the population of your empire reaches industrial era levels.
  They would also provide a framework for introducing an economic victory condition.

Why does it make sense?

• Today in the game we have questions such as
  
  - "Are my people happy? No, then get them luxuries",
  - "Do I have iron and coal to build ironclads? No, OK I'd better trade for them."
  
  This is a pretty good model for the ancient through renaissance eras but is a poor model for the post-industrial revolution world.
  A model of trade in later eras should reflect the fundamental requirement for large quantities of certain raw materials in order that an industrial or modern era society can even function and allow game mechanics that reflect this fact.
  Hey, a trade embargo on a rogue nation might actually mean something if they miss out on some important consumer goods. (Bad country! No Civ4 for you!).

What would be the effect on the game?

• This is just a proposal for the underlying model, the actual effect on gameplay could be many and varied.
• I can imagine happiness in the modern era depending on commodities rather than the existing luxury system
  -- Who cares about incense and ivory...I want my new DVD player and being told there is a shortage of copper for electrical parts and I won't get it until some time next year is going to make me pretty unhappy!
• I can imagine your industrial output would be impacted by shortages of certain resources
  -- Yes General, we can build those tanks you want using our small scale reserves of aluminium, but the infrastructure that produces them will be slowed by the absence of a plentiful supply of it from the global market.
• I can imagine (and drool over) the diplomacy changes
  -- Uh, leader, you know that spaceship you are planning to build, well...I think Egypt and Greece are about to go to war and between them they control the world's supply of aluminium. If the war happens we can still go ahead but it will likely put back our schedule by years. Do you think you could talk to them?

Of course there are many other possible extensions to this idea and features that could be introduced because of it...but each would need to pass the 'simple and fun' test. Two that spring to mind are:

• Maybe if the model could accomodate it with simpllicity some civs could become producers of intermediate commodities for export to other civs, such as refined petroleum, plastics, synthetic rubber, cement, etc or finished goods such as cars and electronics. (Did I mention beer yet. )
• I personally quite like the idea of resources being exhausted by long term use (a great example of this is Cornwall in SW England where ancient tin mines provided tin for much of Europe but were all closed long ago due either due to exhaustion or lack of economic viability), but haven't got a simple model (that wouldn't be annoying) in mind for how to do it.

So, in conclusion, I believe a model (remember complex idea but simple model) of global trade that allows civs to prospect for, and trade in natural resource commodities (and maybe even manufactured goods or a skilled workforce) in the late game would allow for new strategic choices and a host of other innovations...new civics might encourage particular industries/markets...new diplomatic options would become available...new reasons to go to war (as if we need that!)...new challenges to overcome.
The possibilities introduced by such a simple model are huge, it should even allow the introduction of an economic victory condition.

OK, go ahead...shoot it full of holes...

Edit: I guess I am particularly interested if anyone would like to see something like this in a Mod or would I be wasting my time?

[Ijuin]

A way of making the large scale resources valuable but not mandatory to survival would be for the large scale resources to have the "half production cost" effect (or a similar half happiness/health effect). In other words, you could still build whatever it is with your small-scale resources, but it will cost you twice as much to do so.

[The_Aussie_Lurker]

I am trying to do a Python mod based on the first of these principles. Namely, the more you HAVE of a resource-compared to your number of cities-the more 'efficient' your nation is. For example, a nation with 4 cities and 6 sources of iron might get +2 hammers per city, wheras a nation of 4 cities with only 1 source of iron would get -3 hammers per city. I have yet to determine whether this can be done but-fingers crossed!

Aussie_Lurker.

[mjs0]

hmmm, I hadn't really considered production effects of large amounts of resources as I was focusing on the trade/economic effects but that does sound like it might be a good idea if balanced well.

[The_Aussie_Lurker]

Well, the underlying principle is that just HAVING the resource isn't neccessarily enough, but having larger amounts improves the 'efficiency' of food, luxury and strategic resources. It would also make trade more dynamic, because two neighbours might both have fish but-if you have 6 and they only have 2-then they may still come to you for a bit extra, if you can spare them!

Aussie_Lurker.

[mjs0]

This actually reminds me of the original Civilization board game from the early 80s which was mostly about trading for 11 different commodities in the form of cards. The more of one type of commodity you got the more valuable they became.

[VonSharma]

This is brilliant, and shouldn't be THAT hard for firaxis to figure out.
Diplomacy and military improved exponentially, but trade and resource allocation are pretty much still way too simple and symbolic.

It might make the modern era play out more like our actual modern era as well.

And also, if its too complicated for some people, there should be an option in the game to play with commodity markets (or some other micro trade managing) or just regular trading.

[johnmcd]

I like it.

For completeness though I'd like it if you could think of a way to model exploration as a function of trade rather than a function of war in the early game.

[mjs0]

Originally posted by VonSharma
This is brilliant, and shouldn't be THAT hard for firaxis to figure out.
Diplomacy and military improved exponentially, but trade and resource allocation are pretty much still way too simple and symbolic.

It might make the modern era play out more like our actual modern era as well.

And also, if its too complicated for some people, there should be an option in the game to play with commodity markets (or some other micro trade managing) or just regular trading.

Thanks for the feedback, and yes, I had planned that both prospecting and the commodity market would be optional features if I do end up modding it in, not because I perceive either as micro-managing but because I believe some players may be interested in one but not the other.

[mjs0]

Originally posted by johnmcd
For completeness though I'd like it if you could think of a way to model exploration as a function of trade rather than a function of war in the early game.

Hmm, could be an interesting idea, but I must admit I am struggling with a good underlying model for it, I guess the maps revealed by early goody huts is a nod in this direction.
Actually, in the early game I do see my scouts as explorers searching for resources, luxuries and other civilizations primarily to choose new city sites and make contact for purposes of trade.
I guess if your approach to the game is more aggressive that same exploration could be characterized as a hunt for the next victim!

Were you thinking of

• trade delegations that you have to fund who can then randomly discover a trade route to a neighbouring city?
• A civilian unit like a trader who can ignore closed borders?
• something else (more likely)

I'm not sure I like either of the approaches I listed but there are obviously many many ways you could do something like this.

[johnmcd]

For me, there is something about my captial making 4 a turn from trade with Thebes but I have no idea where Thebes is. Unless I know I'm playing an islands map I have no need to explore by sea or really by land once my borders are established.

I'm a peaceful player, once I know the possible extent of my lands I have no need to push further out: I'm not going to conquer whatever is beyond my borders and I can trade and spread religion to it without ever having to discover it. It just seems that the peaceful player has little or no reason to explore once the initial borders are down and historically it was trade that drove this impulse - the Northwest Passage anyone?