AI attitudes and chances of declaring war

[VetLegion]

What are the chances of a "cautious" civ declaring war on me? Is there any way to predict that stuff?

[Cort Haus]

The aggressive civs like Monty, Alex, Boney, Genghis will always be up for attacking a weaker neighbour. You can predict that.

Use the F9 stats to see where your military is. If it's low, then expect demands, threats and visits.

Another way to predict is to use the F4 relations screen to see who the AI like and hate. If they hate someone else more than you and your military is OK, the chances of being attacked decrease.

Keep an eye on them, if possible. If they have nothing but a few city defenders in their cities, you're OK. If there is a growing stack of units, especially on the borders, they could be up to something.

[Enigma_Nova]

And if you see a stack of 8 Catapults backed up by a stack that defends well, start bowing down and/or building your own catapults.

[Saurus]

Some leaders seem to declare war no matter what you do regardless of relations.
I you start out close to montezuma, prepare for war - no ammount of tribute will stop this madman.

Even a Civ that is is pleased toward you may declare war. I have had some wars where the my opponent was pleased when he declared and stayed pleased during the war.
Why this happens I'm not sure but I can think of a few situations:

1) A.I is blackmailed or bribed into war with you or is
fulfilling and obligation to another friendly civ.

2) A.I is realizing he is in a hopeless situation
(e.g in a corner of a continent and unable to exapand) and needs to somehow grab more land)

3) A.I is simply opportunistic in nature and when
see you as an easy prey, will take that opportunity.
This may explain situations where the situation at first can be so very peaceful - and a few turns later you are at war with at least 3 nations.

[VetLegion]

I keep an eye on neighbours, no problem, the problem is someone across the world declaring war on me. I know there is some dice throwing involved, but I would prefer to know chances more precisely...

[joncnunn]

State Relgions are a major factor as well.

If an agressive civ is near you and you don't want a war, pray that you found an early religion, they don't, and that they keep the boarders open long enough for you to convert them.