Calculating battle odds with first strike ability

[Handel]

I just noticed the first strike ability is not calculated in battle odds. I had an archer with 2 first strike promotions (which must mean 3 fist strikes althogether) vs a rookie archer. And the battle odds were calculated as 3.0 vs 3.0. And under it there was:
for my archer 1 - 3 first strike
for the enemy 1 first strike
Is this means the promotional first strikes are only "chance" to have additional first chances and that's why the weren't calculated in the battle odds? Even so, the chances are chances, and the battle odds are based on chances, so everything should be in pile!

[Xerxes712]

If you watch, the first strike is a free chance to get a first blow in. Let say a maceman is going to wack a archer. Normally he hits every time first, but you will see the archer take 23 damage (100/100) The archers first strike absorbed the damage so none is done, then the archer gets his first shot in full. With two promotions, he does it twice.

[Azuarc]

Maybe because they don't have a distinctly numerical factor? If I have an axeman defending against your veteran swordsman in a city on a hill, we can have...

Axeman - strength 5
+50% for melee
+40% for city
+25% for terrain

vs

Swordsman - strength 6
+10% for unit bonus
+45% for City Attacker 2

and get a distinct result of...whatever that is. 10.6 vs 9.3?

The point being, I can numerically quantify all those things. A first strike chance isn't explicit. It doesn't automatically mean I'm going to rock you're going to rock me with those two extra first strikes, because they might end up destroying my archer or they might end up doing nothing...and THEN the battle exchanges would begin.

[Handel]

Originally posted by Azuarc
Maybe because they don't have a distinctly numerical factor?

Everything in the computers have a distinct numerical value. In the case of the first strike (FS) with archer vs archer I would guess the FS has a 50% chance of hit (strength 3 vs strength 3) and the hit will reduce 20% from the enemy health (because they have the same strength). So after 1 FS the enemy with 50% probability will have only 80% strength left etc etc.
I am not a mathematician, but I bet the probabilities can be calculated easily.

[MattPilot]

Originally posted by Handel


Everything in the computers have a distinct numerical value. In the case of the first strike (FS) with archer vs archer I would guess the FS has a 50% chance of hit (strength 3 vs strength 3) and the hit will reduce 20% from the enemy health (because they have the same strength). So after 1 FS the enemy with 50% probability will have only 80% strength left etc etc.
I am not a mathematician, but I bet the probabilities can be calculated easily.

Take a look in the strategy forum and open the "combat explained" or some such thread where everything is perfectly explained.



but to touch on your example, If 1 first strike was successful in damaging the unit, the odds are still 3 vs 3, its just that one unit has now 80 HP and one has 100 HP. One needs 4 further hits to kill the unit, the other needs 5 hits to kill the unit.

[Drachasor]

Originally posted by MattPilot
but to touch on your example, If 1 first strike was successful in damaging the unit, the odds are still 3 vs 3, its just that one unit has now 80 HP and one has 100 HP. One needs 4 further hits to kill the unit, the other needs 5 hits to kill the unit.

That's not how the Civ IV system works. All units have a combat value which is also their health. If a Knight takes 2 full points of damage then he is now a strength 8 unit (down from 10). A Maceman vs. that Knight would be an even fight (8 v. 8 unless one of them had a special ability that applied).

Attack, Defense, and Health are all the same thing now.

-Drachasor

[MattPilot]

Originally posted by Drachasor


That's not how the Civ IV system works. All units have a combat value which is also their health. If a Knight takes 2 full points of damage then he is now a strength 8 unit (down from 10). A Maceman vs. that Knight would be an even fight (8 v. 8 unless one of them had a special ability that applied).

Attack, Defense, and Health are all the same thing now.

-Drachasor

No they are not. Have fun reading.

http://apolyton.net/forums/showthread.php?s=&threadid=140622

I suggest you read the entire thread, because the first few posts are not all correct and the true way it works is revealed (through tests) near the end.

[Skanky Burns]

After combat starts though, the chances to hit don't change. So a unit that gets hit in the first strike does have less health but still as much chance as ever to return the favour. Of course, your archer with more first strikes should have better odds than the other archer.

Even better though would be to use strength upgrades or basically anything other than first strike. Silly upgrade.

[MattPilot]

First strike is quite useful.

Any unit with blitz would benefit it from it. So would any defender.

The beauty of first strike is that it keeps your units alive from combat to combat.


If you don't have first strikes, the enemy will eventually wear down your defender and die. With first strikes, you have a much better chance of keeping his health up.

Same with tanks... they have blitz, and if you want to use that blitz, you oughta make sure they keep their health up after the first combat, otherwise a second fight per turn wouldn't make any sense, no?

[Skanky Burns]

Having higher strength on the other hand gives them more health to begin with and increases their odds of winning each round of combat they participate in.

[Kuciwalker]

Originally posted by Drachasor
That's not how the Civ IV system works. All units have a combat value which is also their health. If a Knight takes 2 full points of damage then he is now a strength 8 unit (down from 10). A Maceman vs. that Knight would be an even fight (8 v. 8 unless one of them had a special ability that applied).

Attack, Defense, and Health are all the same thing now.

-Drachasor

The power used for the unit during combat is its power at the beginning of combat.

[Kuciwalker]

Originally posted by Skanky Burns
Having higher strength on the other hand gives them more health to begin with and increases their odds of winning each round of combat they participate in.

All the drill promotions combined make a pretty powerful unit, and one more versatile than one that's spent those promotions on other things.

[MattPilot]

Originally posted by Skanky Burns
Having higher strength on the other hand gives them more health to begin with and increases their odds of winning each round of combat they participate in.

No, strength is increased! Not Health.

Health is ALWAYS 100 if the unit is fully healed (strength wise). If the unit has a reduced strength rating, say 9/12 then it will start combat with 75HP. But the odds are still 9 vs whatever the enemy unit has.

Its just that the 75HP unit can withstand fewer hits.

[Drachasor]

Originally posted by MattPilot



No they are not. Have fun reading.

http://apolyton.net/forums/showthread.php?s=&threadid=140622

I suggest you read the entire thread, because the first few posts are not all correct and the true way it works is revealed (through tests) near the end.

Ahh, I see.

Well, the chance the first striker wins can be calculated as follows (we'll assume both units are at full health and have the same strength):

First consider the case where the first striker doesn't hit with his first strike. Then both units are on equal ground. One unit will get 5 hits in the next 9 confrontations. Let's consider that A is a win for the First Striker and B is a win for the other unit. The number of ways A can win is 126. This is 9 choose 5, or 9!/(5!*4!), the number of ways you can arrange 5 A's and 4 B's. (You might think that trailing B's in this calculation could cause a problem, but remember that since battles after 5 A's aren't calculated there is only one combination for each anyhow).

So there are 126 ways A can win if it misses the first strike, and 126 ways B can win (total).

If A makes the first strike, however, things are a bit different. If A wins the fight then it needs 4 wins out of the 8 remaining which is 70 possibilities. If B wins the fight then B must have 5 wins out of the remaining 8 rounds, or 56 ways.

So the total number of ways A can win is 196 while B only has 182 ways of winning. Therefore A has a 51.8% chance of victory. A modest improvement.

With two first strikes then there are two ways for A to go into the final rounds with 1 extra hit. Also there is the chance A goes in with 2 wins. Then there are 7 more rounds and A needs 3 wins, or 35 ways to win. B needs 5 wins in those 7, so there are only 21 ways for B to win then.

This means that there are 126+70+70+35= 301 ways for A to win, and only 259 ways for B to win. So A has a 54.75% chance of winning.

As a comparison a unit with a 10% strength bonus has a fairly small increased chance of winning against a full-health unit with the same attack. The increased chance gives it a mere 52.38% chance of victory.

These results don't give any regard to the final health of a unit. A first strike unit has his probability curve of possible ending health skewed towards a higher ending health than a unit with 10% bonus strength.

-Drachasor

[Bhruic]

The problem is that the 'odds' that are listed don't reflect the chance of winning the combat, they just list the pure str:str ratio. Since things like first strike don't affect unit strength, they aren't taken into account. This is the same for weakened units. A unit with str 4 taking on a unit with base str 8 that is at half str (so both currently at 4) will list a 1:1 ratio. But because the unit that is at half strength only has 50% HPs, it it more likely to lose the fight.

Bh