First Strike Chance

[MattPilot]

Lets talk about this promotion and whether or not it's valuable.


As i understand it, a first strike gives you the ability to take a swing at the enemy before combat begins. This 'swing' may or may not be successful, but if it is, it will reduce the enemies strength, making the actual combat that follows easier to win.

Right?

Question is, are "first strikes" only for attack or also for defense?

Then the more important question is, how effective is it? Would the other promotions be of better value?


Having built a new frigate, would i be better off with a 20% increase in strength (combat II) or a Drill II (1 first strike).

EXample:

I have a frigate with Combat I (10% strength) and Drill I (1 first strike chance). I attack another frigate out on the ocean.

Odds are 8.8 vs 8.8 (i get 10% due to combat I and the enemy gets 10% due to defense modifer). Now lets assume my "First strike chance" is successful and the "strike" itself is successful too.

So before actual combat begins the new odds are "8.8 (me) vs 7.04 ( 20% reduction due to successful first strike).

So in this case my odds would look a lot better in winning, no?

Is my understanding of "first strike" correct?

[Koyaanisqatsi]

Yeah, I think first strike is a pretty powerful upgrade. It can become even more powerful when you have a tech lead, too. Getting in one or two free shots that do significant damage makes it a much easier fight...but, if your unit is weaker, I'm not sure it helps as much since the odds of scoring a hit are lower and you do less damage even if you do hit. So, for me at least, the rule has been to give extra first strikes if I have a significant tech advantage and to give general strength bonuses or type-specific bonuses if I'm behind.

[Solver]

You're not entirely correct. In your example, the strength of the opposing unit would still be 8.8 (and thus damage would be calculated from it). However, if you succeed, then by the time the other unit can deal you damage, its hit points will already be decreased.

Drill II is valuable. Drill I means a chance for a first strike, Drill II is a guaranteed first strike - so 1 or 2 first strikes. It's quite awesome with some special units, most notably, the Chu-Ko-Nu of the Chinese. That unit has 2 free First Strikes AND deals Collateral damage. With Drill II, it becomes 3-4 First Strikes, which is quite awesome with its collateral damage.

[MattPilot]

Originally posted by Solver


Drill II is valuable. Drill I means a chance for a first strike, Drill II is a guaranteed first strike - so 1 or 2 first strikes. It's quite awesome with some special units, most notably, the Chu-Ko-Nu of the Chinese. That unit has 2 free First Strikes AND deals Collateral damage. With Drill II, it becomes 3-4 First Strikes, which is quite awesome with its collateral damage.

I'm confused. If it says "1 first strike" i understand i'll get one guaranteed first strike. If its only a "chance", then a dice is rolled to see if i get it. Correct?

But why do you say that with "1 first strike" i have 1-2 chances?


So to summarize:

First strikes are very powerful if your odds are equal or better, but useless if the odds are greatly against you.


I'd assume then that First strikes are very good for (suicide) cannons? Better than City Raider or extra collateral damage?

[DeepO]

The forum is going so fast, it's easy to overlook threads:

http://apolyton.net/forums/showthread.php?s=&threadid=140622

And no, suicide cannons are about the worst on fs. You typically add fs in order to preserve the strength of a unit. If it is a suicide unit, fs is rubbish (or better said: there are better choices like more collateral or city raider)

DeepO

[Solver]

Drill I says "Extra first strike chance". So it's one dice roll strike. Drill II says +1 First strike because it gives you a guaranteed one. Thus, Drill II is either 1 or 2 first strikes, depending on the dice roll. Some units also have inherent guaranteed first strikes.

If the odds are absolutely against you, first strikes are indeed useless - they'll just have little or no effect. My favorite unit for first-strikes is the Crossbowman (or Chu-Ko-Nu of course). With Drill II, Crossbowmen are very effective vs. Pikemen, Macemen, Catapults and all older units.

For one promotion, I'd usually pick just Combat I over Drill I. For two promotions, though, Drill II is a very compelling choice.

[MattPilot]

Drill I says "Extra first strike chance". So it's one dice roll strike. Drill II says +1 First strike because it gives you a guaranteed one. Thus, Drill II is either 1 or 2 first strikes, depending on the dice roll. Some units also have inherent guaranteed first strikes.

Ah.. gotcha. I was under the impression that Drill II upgraded the "chance" into a sure thing.

Thanks mate for the clarification

[Solver]

Those with too much time on their hands can go to DeepO's combat probability formula in this thread and try to figure out how much a first strike is worth vs. a 10% increase in strength .

[Simplicity]

Okay, but what is the "Chance" of getting a First Strike on Drill I?

I hate this upgrade because I have no idea what that chance is? Is it 50%? Is it 5%?

[DeepO]

This is getting old

http://apolyton.net/forums/showthread.php?s=&threadid=140622

DeepO

[DeepO]

BTW, if you're not getting the hint: ask it in that thread and I'll do my best to answer you. But it does imply you at least read diagonally true the formula sections.

DeepO

[MattPilot]

Hey DeepO..... i read that thread (IN ITS ENTIRETY) this morning. My head still hurts hours later.

Good stuff though!

[DeepO]

For me, it was only after I did this calculation that I started to feel for how combat and fs work. It's much easier to understand promotion as well. That doesn't mean you have to read all the small stuff, but just in the general description things might be mentioned you are not aware of. If you don't really get the combat rounds system, you won't have a clue over which promotion to pick in which situation.

DeepO