There is only one aspect where Civ4 will be less complex than SMAC and Civ3, it's diplomatic bargainings (apprently, you can only trade something for some other thing of the same nature, i.e. tech for a tech, resource for a resource etc.). On all other matters, Civ4 will provide more complexity than either Civ3 or SMAC.
I do absolutely refuse to believe that tech-for-gold trades won't be possible in Civ4. Civ3 had an amazingly flexible diplomatic model where you could put anything on the bargaining table, and it's definitely something that MUST be kept.
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