Tide Begins To Turn In Western Opinion on Gerogia

[chequita guevara]

"DID SAAKASHVILI LIE?
The West Begins to Doubt Georgian Leader"

One thing was already clear to the officers at NATO headquarters in Brussels: They thought that the Georgians had started the conflict and that their actions were more calculated than pure self-defense or a response to Russian provocation. In fact, the NATO officers believed that the Georgian attack was a calculated offensive against South Ossetian positions to create the facts on the ground, and they coolly treated the exchanges of fire in the preceding days as minor events. Even more clearly, NATO officials believed, looking back, that by no means could these skirmishes be seen as justification for Georgian war preparations.

At 10:35 p.m. on Aug. 7, less than an hour before Russian tanks entered the Roki Tunnel, according to Saakashvili, Georgian forces began their artillery assault on Tskhinvali. The Georgians used 27 rocket launchers, including 152-millimeter guns, as well as cluster bombs. Three brigades began the nighttime assault.

The intelligence agencies were monitoring the Russian calls for help on the airwaves. The 58th Army, part of which was stationed in North Ossetia, was apparently not ready for combat, at least not during that first night.

The intelligence agencies conclude that the Russian army did not begin firing until 7:30 a.m. on Aug. 8, when it launched an SS-21 short-range ballistic missile on the city of Borzhomi, southwest of Gori. The missile apparently hit military and government bunker positions. Russian warplanes began their first attacks on the Georgian army a short time later. Suddenly the airwaves came to life, as did the Russian army.

Russian troops from North Ossetia did not begin marching through the Roki Tunnel until roughly 11 a.m. This sequence of events is now seen as evidence that Moscow did not act offensively, but merely reacted. Additional SS-21s were later moved to the south. The Russians deployed 5,500 troops to Gori and 7,000 to the border between Georgia and its second separatist region, Abkhazia.

[Elok]

I've never trusted Gerogia. There's something about a nation that refuses to exist that I just can't trust. Cynical, I know.

[DirtyMartini]

Originally posted by Elok
I've never trusted Gerogia. There's something about a nation that refuses to exist that I just can't trust. Cynical, I know.

damn, beat me to it.

[Saras]

Germany =/= "THE WEST"

Germany = Russia's byatch.

[BeBro]

Actually many didn't think he's all innocent in this from the beginning. But even if he is responsible, it wouldn't justify all of Russia's actions, however.

[Zkribbler]

New details...but they jibe with my analysis at the time.

The separatists were shooting at the Georgians.

The Georgians over reacted.

The Russians way over reacted.

BTW: We still want our military equipment back from those thievin' Russians.

[Victor Galis]

What's scary is how much McCain likes Saakashvili. Instead of decrying the risks and stupidity of writing the Georgians a blank check, Obama just bought into the condemn Russia and act tough act

[Arrian]

The Georgians appear to have walked into a well-laid trap. They were baited.

This makes them stupid. It doesn't make Russia right.

-Arrian

[Naked Gents Rut]

No military alliance with stupid countries.

[Lancer]

Even if the Russians leave Georgia today their reputation is severely damaged. I don't see investment returning there for at least a decade. (assuming they leave Georgia) Either way the nations around them will seek the common defense that is NATO. I really have to personally thank Putin for that.

This also proves that there's nothing an enemy can do to get Che to side with the west. No matter what an enemy does to a nation like Georgia, we're wrong.

[Dauphin]

Originally posted by BeBro
Actually many didn't think he's all innocent in this from the beginning. But even if he is responsible, it wouldn't justify all of Russia's actions, however.

[chequita guevara]

Originally posted by Lancer
Even if the Russians leave Georgia today their reputation is severely damaged. I don't see investment returning there for at least a decade. (assuming they leave Georgia) Either way the nations around them will seek the common defense that is NATO. I really have to personally thank Putin for that.

This also proves that there's nothing an enemy can do to get Che to side with the west. No matter what an enemy does to a nation like Georgia, we're wrong.

Lancer, you might want to get your glasses checked. Maybe you could get someone to read the article to you. NATO doesn't even agree with you.

[chequita guevara]

Originally posted by Arrian
The Georgians appear to have walked into a well-laid trap. They were baited.

This makes them stupid. It doesn't make Russia right.

-Arrian

Except from the military analysis by NATO, Russia wasn't prepared to go to war. In fact, if the Georgians had been competent, they might have been able to stop the Russians from intervening, if they'd been able to grab the South end of the Rotki tunnel. Generally speaking, countries planning traps don't leave themselves open to such simple blocks.

[chequita guevara]

Originally posted by Saras
Germany =/= "THE WEST"

Germany = Russia's byatch.

NATO =/= Germany.

[onodera]

Yay, we did use a Tochka on a bunker. Should've expended two more and dropped them on the General Staff HQ and the presidential palace themselves.

[Elok]

Originally posted by Arrian
The Georgians appear to have walked into a well-laid trap. They were baited.

This makes them stupid. It doesn't make Russia right.

-Arrian

It's a trap? Are you suggesting Georgian defenses can't repel firepower of Russian magnitude?

[Whoha]

Originally posted by Comrade Snuggles

Originally posted by Arrian
The Georgians appear to have walked into a well-laid trap. They were baited.

This makes them stupid. It doesn't make Russia right.

-Arrian

Except from the military analysis by NATO, Russia wasn't prepared to go to war. In fact, if the Georgians had been competent, they might have been able to stop the Russians from intervening, if they'd been able to grab the South end of the Rotki tunnel. Generally speaking, countries planning traps don't leave themselves open to such simple blocks.

The Rotki tunnel isn't the only way in. Russia had other passes(which admittedly would be snowed over during the winter) as well as their sealift, and airlift capacity. They'd have needed to destroy the tunnel, kill the Russian Black Sea Fleet, and hold on for about 6 weeks to delay the Russian ground response until next spring when they all promptly die. All of this does nothing to address the Russian Airforce of course.

[GePap]

Sealift and airlift????

S. Ossetia doesn't have a coast, nor does it have any significant airfields, and even i it did, you can;t airlift units into airfield your land forces don't hold. Che is correct about the Roki tunnel being the only good access: even if there are other roads, are those roads capable of supporting the movement of heavy armor?.

As for the idea that this was a trap. Well, even if we assume that the Russians looked blindly at S. Ossetian provocation in order to trigger some Georgian counteraction, Georgia's counteraction was as disproportionate as Russia's reaction to that. IN short, if it was a"trap," it was an obvious one and one that could have been easily avoided by someone with good judgement or even a modicum of common sense. Obviously both those things were lacking in the Georgian leadership.

[onodera]

Originally posted by Whoha


The Rotki tunnel isn't the only way in. Russia had other passes(which admittedly would be snowed over during the winter) as well as their sealift, and airlift capacity. They'd have needed to destroy the tunnel, kill the Russian Black Sea Fleet, and hold on for about 6 weeks to delay the Russian ground response until next spring when they all promptly die. All of this does nothing to address the Russian Airforce of course.

Yep, destroying the Roki tunnel would force us to strike from Abkhazia and Chechnya, which would admittedly slow down the counterassault, but would lead to our tanks entering Tbilisi and staying there.

[Whoha]

Originally posted by GePap
Sealift and airlift????

S. Ossetia doesn't have a coast.

Georgia does, and Russia used it.

[GePap]

Originally posted by Whoha


Georgia does, and Russia used it.

Russia didn't land any troops by sea, and even if one assume that the Russians wanted a pretext to intervene in South Ossetia, without the Roki tunnel they would have had to undertake military operations from outside S. Ossetia, which would have completely invalidated their political arguement behind their actions. Its impossible to claim that you are just moving to help your peacekeepers in a limited military incursion if you begin to to strike everywhere in the other country except where your peacekeepers were.

[Traianvs]

I thought this was all cleared up by now.

Russia baited the Georgians by supporting Ossetian insurgents. Saakasjvili saw the start of the Olympics as a good time to invade the unfaithful province and reclaim it (one of his policy points when he was elected in Georgia), ultimately hoping to gain international support and sympathy against teh evil Russian oppressor (which it is of course). Then he could have more leverage to join NATO and he would have gotten rid of Mother Rossya interfering constantly.

Bad gamble, because enough Eurosofties saw through it. Too bad the likes of McCain still have their blindfolds on

[Whoha]

They made an amphibious landing at Poti, more to the point that is the other breakaway region of Georgia, Abkhazia, which would more then give them pretext. Aside from the fact that the Tunnel is owned by Russia and an attack on that is an attack on them.

[chequita guevara]

Originally posted by Traianvs
I thought this was all cleared up by now.

Apparently not. Apparently Western governments aren't buying that BS argument anymore.