NFL - Are you ready for some Football - Draft and Off Season

[Lord Avalon]

22-50 would perhaps include some familiar names.

[snoopy369]

Originally posted by -Jrabbit
The classic example of that is 2003, when they traded down so they could get TWO 1st-round busts (Michael Haynes and Rex). Then they got Peanut Tillman in the 2nd and Lance Briggs in the 3rd.

Recent Bears 1st-round picks that were NOT a failure
2008 - TE Greg Olsen (too soon to tell)
2002 - OT Marc Columbo (now with Dallas)
2000 - LB Brian Urlacher
1996 - CB Walt Harris
1990 - FS Mark Carrier
1989 - CB Donnell Woolford

There are some guys who had marginal success, like Curtis Conway and Alonzo Spellman, as well. But in terms of All-Pros... in the last 20 years, it's basically Urlacher. I think Carrier made it a couple times.

20-year success rate is basically 30%. So set your expectations low.

Colombo was absolutely a bust (for the bears). He never had a significant period of decent playing time with the bears - so he was a bust. Just because he had one good season with another teams doesn't make him any less of a bust (just as Rex would still be a bust if he went to NE and won five rings).

[snoopy369]

Technically it was 3 ...

The Bears traded a first-round pick to Seattle for Mirer in 1997. He never won Chicago's starting job.

[-Jrabbit]

Subsequent trades don't count. That's a different kind of stupidity.

[-Jrabbit]

Originally posted by snoopy369

Colombo was absolutely a bust (for the bears). He never had a significant period of decent playing time with the bears - so he was a bust. Just because he had one good season with another teams doesn't make him any less of a bust (just as Rex would still be a bust if he went to NE and won five rings).

OK, if that's how you're scoring, make it 25% chance of "decent starter" and 10% chance of All Pro for Bears first-rounders in the past 20 years. Roughly.

It does seem to suggest that routinely trading out of the first round is the best strategy. Saves on salaries, too.

[SlowwHand]

That's the way to go if you have a poor performing team that has oodles of holes to fill.

[-Jrabbit]

With the extremely high prices that top-10 picks now command, I'm convinced that Jerry Jones' often-used point system evaluation of draft picks is outdated to the point of being nearly useless. The negative impact of having a high-priced, unproven rookie at the top of a team's salary chart can be devastating. Meanwhile, 2nd and 3rd-rounders with nearly equivalent skills -- and often superior performance -- have to wait 3-5 years to cash in. Even worse, they often change teams to do it (see Bernard Berrian, Lance Briggs).

Unless there's a guy you're absolutely sold on as a true superstar, it makes no sense to keep a high first-round pick under the present system.

[SlowwHand]

We have 2 first picks. I'd just as soon see a trade that brought a few lower round picks.

[Lord Avalon]

When the CBA gets renegotiated, there really needs to be some kind of rookie pay scale.

[Imran Siddiqui]

I'd agree, but only if there were guaranteed contracts.

[-Jrabbit]

No source was quoted, but this is now supposedly a done deal...

The Chiefs have agreed to trade DE Jared Allen to the Vikings.

The deal will be finalized Wednesday, but a contract and trade agreement are in place. Kansas City is expected to get Minnesota's No. 17 overall pick and more, probably a third-round pick.

KC could now look at DE (Chris Long or Vernon Gholston) with their fifth pick. Allen should get less money than Dwight Freeney, but should be receiving a mega-deal.

Minny's defense has just gotten a lot scarier...

[-Jrabbit]

CBS.com and NFL.com seem to confirm it. The price, it appears, was pretty high.

Minnesota will give Kansas City its first-round pick and both of its third-round selections to acquire Allen.

In 2007, Allen recorded 67 tackles, three forced fumbles and led the league with 15½ sacks.

[snoopy369]

Didn't someone explain to MIN about that herschel walker guy?

TBH probably a fair deal for them, though, if they can afford him salcap wise... great player.

[Imran Siddiqui]

Good deal by both sides, IMO. Allen was going to leave KC, so they got a great package for them, and Minny needed defensive help.

[Imran Siddiqui]

From ESPN.com:

Sources said the Vikings included a second third-round pick (No. 73) in the 2008 draft to get the deal done. They had been offering a No. 1 pick (17th in the first round) and a No. 3 (No. 82). The teams also swapped spots in the sixth round with the Vikings getting a better spot in the sixth round, sources said.

So it seems a 1st and a 2nd, with swapping in the 6th round.