The Offseason Baseball Thread

asleepathewheel · January 11, 2005, 23:17

Originally posted by Imran Siddiqui
It's bad when the player's fluke year is an OPS+ of 93

.

Don't get me wrong, he had a great year (for him) last year. but he's 35. Career BA: .274 And he can't hit lefties for anything.

I would take Cairo and the price differential in a heartbeat.

Imran Siddiqui · January 11, 2005, 23:29

Yeah, but a great year for him was 7% below the league average player

. Oh well, I guess Steinny will pay for that

.

Frankly, I'd give Matsui one more year to prove himself. If he can't do better than 88 OPS+, give it to Cairo.

asleepathewheel · January 11, 2005, 23:44

For a guy like Womack OBP is much much more important than SLG. I think he had 170 hits last year, which is a good number for his role, setting the table for Rolen, Pujols, Edmonds. He won't get that number this year, esp. facing different pitchers.

Imran Siddiqui · January 11, 2005, 23:53

A .349 OBP isn't that great for a 'table setter' either. It should be at .360, at least.

Especially when you consider that St. Louis' team OBP was .344

Rex Little · January 12, 2005, 00:03

And Womack's never had an OBP that high before except in two "cup-of-coffee" seasons. His career mark is 30 points lower.

-Jrabbit · January 12, 2005, 08:03

Womack is overrated. Hhis defense is suspect and he doesn't really stand up well when counted on as an everyday starter.

But he does have a decent head for the game, and the guy can run.

Arrian · January 12, 2005, 08:52

Womack blows. Cairo wasn't great, but he was cheap & I rather liked him. I wish the Yanks had kept him.

-Arrian

Brundlefly · January 31, 2005, 10:09

Cant believe none of our favorite Cubs fans want to share their thoughts on Sosa getting traded to Baltimore....

Less than a month till Spring training... I hope whoever you all root for have something more to look forward to this year than I do with the Phillies..

Imran Siddiqui · January 31, 2005, 10:53

Good deal for the Orioles. They don't have to pay him that much next year and give up Hairston, who was going to be back up next season, and two prospects who have not been named (meaning, probably not the top tier prospects).

That's going to be a scary good lineup, even with an aging Sosa.

Brundlefly · January 31, 2005, 11:23

Originally posted by Imran Siddiqui
Good deal for the Orioles. They don't have to pay him that much next year and give up Hairston, who was going to be back up next season, and two prospects who have not been named (meaning, probably not the top tier prospects).

That's going to be a scary good lineup, even with an aging Sosa.

Even with an aging Sosa with shrinking girly-man muscles?

-Jrabbit · January 31, 2005, 13:54

Chicago fans are thrilled that we got more than a bag of balls for Sammy the Cancer.

We've lost about 80 HR and 200 RBI in 2 OF positions, so we're all waiting patiently for this to become official before we start agitating for the inevitable follow-up deal. Personally, I'm hoping Hendry will trade our entire minor league system for Aubrey Huff (assuming he'll sign an extension). The Rays can't afford him once he's a free agent after 2005.

I'd rather see the Cubs go with Hollingsworth and the rookie DuBois than sign Burnitz. Magglio would be great, but I doubt we can outbid the Tigers and Mets, as Boras has successfully weaved his web of deceit once again. (It's a shame, too, Mags is on the record saying he'd love to play at Wrigley.)

cubbyphan1138 · January 31, 2005, 17:04

Originally posted by -Jrabbit
Chicago fans are thrilled that we got more than a bag of balls for Sammy the Cancer.

We've lost about 80 HR and 200 RBI in 2 OF positions, so we're all waiting patiently for this to become official before we start agitating for the inevitable follow-up deal. Personally, I'm hoping Hendry will trade our entire minor league system for Aubrey Huff (assuming he'll sign an extension). The Rays can't afford him once he's a free agent after 2005.

I'd rather see the Cubs go with Hollingsworth and the rookie DuBois than sign Burnitz. Magglio would be great, but I doubt we can outbid the Tigers and Mets, as Boras has successfully weaved his web of deceit once again. (It's a shame, too, Mags is on the record saying he'd love to play at Wrigley.)

Burnitz sucks. Huff may be one of the most overlooked players in baseball. Definitely what the Cubs need. If the Cubs somehow could get Huff and Baez I think I would break into tears. I asked this on the Sosa thread, but what do you think it would take to get the? I was originally hoping they'd go for something like Dubois, Farns, Guzman, the 2 Orioles prospects, and Pinto, maybe Mitre. I have heard that TB's GM wants Zambrano though which obviously isn't happening.

Imran Siddiqui · January 31, 2005, 17:53

I think in the rush to get rid of Sosa, the Cubs may be hurting next year. It is no guarentee that they get Huff. Their lineup is now focused on Garciaparra and Ramirez; and the OF sucks badly outside of Patterson (if he can ever stay healthy).

-Jrabbit · January 31, 2005, 17:59

It starts with Huff. If he's amendable to signing an extension, it's worthwhile to pursue. The rumor is, the D-rays know they can't keep him once he's a free agent and are ready to move. But along with prospects, TB will need a quality major leaguer to convince their fans that they're trying to win.

But if he's a one-year rental, the Cub can only offer prospects, and TB will do better to keep him until July when there will be plenty of desperate teams.

Imran Siddiqui · January 31, 2005, 18:01

Exactly... and if the Cubs can't get Huff now, I don't think they get in sniffing distance of the playoffs. I'm sure the D-Rays are thinking the Yanks or BoSox may be interested in a 1B-OF with some pop during the penant race

.

cubbyphan1138 · January 31, 2005, 18:04

How does getting rid of Sosa hurt them for next year? Sosa would have been gone next year and he is declining so that I doubt he would be worth much anyway. The money they save by him being gone will be huge. Of course part of this will have to go toward long term contracts for guys like Ramirez and Zambrano, but hopefully we'll have enough to pick up someone before next year. If we want to dream, I believe Juan Pierre is a FA after this year.

Remember too that the Cubs have some good young players that are about ready. If he doesn't get traded Dubois will get some good playing time this year, and he tore up AAA last year. Dopirak is about ready at 1B, Lewis at 2B, and Guzman and Brownlie at pitcher if they can stay healthy.

-Jrabbit · January 31, 2005, 18:06

Imran, you forgot Derrek Lee. That's still 4 pretty good sticks, plus decent offense from both 2B and C.

The good news is, if you need offense, it's a lot easier to plug holes in the OF than anywhere else. In '84, they picked up their #1 and #3 hitters in the last week of spring training -- Bobby Dernier and Sarge Matthews.

And of course, the real hope is that without Sammy in the clubhouse, they might actually develop some chemistry. Last year, it was pretty clear that they had no heart, and very little give-a-damn.

It's way too early to panic. Winter is a time of optimism, my firend.

Imran Siddiqui · January 31, 2005, 18:27

How does getting rid of Sosa hurt them for next year?

Well, you've gotten rid of 35 HRs and a 110 OPS+ with no replacement. Who takes his place? Ben Grieve?

The money they save by him being gone will be huge.

Of course they are paying for most of his salary next year

.

you forgot Derrek Lee. That's still 4 pretty good sticks, plus decent offense from both 2B and C.

Wait, now who are the 4, here? Garciaparra (only a 106 OPS+ in Chicago last year), Lee (114 OPS+ is nice), Ramirez (136 OPS+, your new star hitter). Patterson had a 92 OPS+ last year. That's 8% less than average.

And of course, the real hope is that without Sammy in the clubhouse, they might actually develop some chemistry. Last year, it was pretty clear that they had no heart, and very little give-a-damn.

I wonder how much of that was Sosa's fault and how much of it was Baker's (Mr. Super-Highly-Overrated Manager).

It's way too early to panic. Winter is a time of optimism, my firend.

As it has been since 1908, right?

Sprayber · January 31, 2005, 18:30

If this has been covered im sorry but I really don't have time to go through the whole thread. What happened to the team that was going to DC? I never really heard anything about them after they found out that they werent gonna get as much help as they thought they would.

Imran Siddiqui · January 31, 2005, 18:37

A deal was worked out... they are going to get the money and stay in Washington.

Sprayber · January 31, 2005, 18:41

Originally posted by Imran Siddiqui
A deal was worked out... they are going to get the money and stay in Washington.

Cool, thanks for the info

cubbyphan1138 · January 31, 2005, 20:48

Wait Imran, I'm confused. When you say next year are you talking about this coming year or 2006. I assumed 2006. If you mean this year I agree that the Cubs offense could be weak on power in the outfield, if things stay as they are. I highly doubt they will though. The trade for prospects at 2 positions we already minor league talent in (2B and starting pitcher) lead me to believe Hendry has another deal in the works. Regardless, I think moving Sammy was right to do for a number of reasons:

1) Improve team chemistry
2) While the homers will be missed, with Nomar, A-Ram, Lee, and Patterson we will still have plenty of that. A guy like Hairston, who gets on base, has some speed, etc. is what the Cubs really needed.
3) Even with the $10 million of Sammy's contract we are still saving like that could go toward Huff, a closer, or a move later in the season.
4) People forget how terrible Sosa was last year. Most of the homers seemed to be in games that were already decided and with no men. I know if you check his splits for the last 3 innings of game and at bats with men on base they are both terrible. I think they may both be under .200 average.

If you are talking about 2006 aren't paying any of Sammy's contract because he waives his option. There is a $4.5 million buy out that we might have to pick up part of. I dont think that part of the deal has been revealed.

For the 2006 season though there are plenty of OF options though if we don't make a move this season. Pierre would be the best, but I think Dubois could good if given the opportunity. Of course there will be other issues next offseason like SS. For now though I'm just worried about this season. With all the talent and the farm system, the high payroll, and the ability Hendry has shown to make good moves so far, I'm confident we'll be ok in the future.

cubbyphan1138 · January 31, 2005, 20:48

Sorry. Double Post.

-Jrabbit · January 31, 2005, 23:27

Yes, Imran, those are the 4 guys I had in mind. The fact that Patterson didn't have a great year does not deter me from including him. The fact that your holy STATS Inc. ratings don't bless him does not reduce his physical tools.

If they can get a damned closer, the Cubs will finish better than 2004.
If they can't find one or acquire one, they will finish about the same as 04.

I don't blame "SamME" Sosa for the team underperforming. But a whole lot of effort was wasted in cowtowing to his insistence that it was "my house" and "my team" -- and he did not deliver. Lead through word or lead through deed, but goddammit, SHOW SOME LEADERSHIP.

I do blame Sosa for Sosa underperforming. I blame Sosa for his lack of leadership, his divisiveness, and his abject inability to accept any responsibility for what happened to "my team" in "my house" while wearing the captain's "C."

And yes, I blame him for perpetrating a fraud through his use of performance-enhancing drugs.

Statistics be damned, the Cubs will be better off without him.
That's all I'm saying.

Imran Siddiqui · February 1, 2005, 00:14

When you say next year are you talking about this coming year or 2006.

2005 season.

1) Improve team chemistry
2) While the homers will be missed, with Nomar, A-Ram, Lee, and Patterson we will still have plenty of that. A guy like Hairston, who gets on base, has some speed, etc. is what the Cubs really needed.
3) Even with the $10 million of Sammy's contract we are still saving like that could go toward Huff, a closer, or a move later in the season.
4) People forget how terrible Sosa was last year. Most of the homers seemed to be in games that were already decided and with no men. I know if you check his splits for the last 3 innings of game and at bats with men on base they are both terrible. I think they may both be under .200 average.

Improve team chemistry by trading one cancer away (Sosa), but embracing another (Nomar)?

Hairston is what the Cubs need? He'll be lucky to beat out Walker to start at 2B.

Huff, I think won't happen. Same with a closer (any out there right now)? I think when that happens they miss the playoffs.

Perhaps Sosa didn't perform up to standards, but he did have a real good 2003. If it turns out to be a one year slump, the Cubs could be kicking themselves.

The fact that Patterson didn't have a great year does not deter me from including him. The fact that your holy STATS Inc. ratings don't bless him does not reduce his physical tools.

Ah yes, "physical tools" over facts

. Jay Payton was one of those guys, IIRC. One of those guys with great tools, who'd be a guarenteed superstar. Unless Patterson shows me something, he's just promise unrealized.

Lead through word or lead through deed, but goddammit, SHOW SOME LEADERSHIP.

Blame Dusty for making him Captain. Manny Ramirez makes the most cash for Boston, but Franconia wasn't going to look for him for leadership. The manager is supposed to find the 'leader' and give him the Captain's C.

--

And every year is going to count. Dusty has already begun ruining the arms of his young pitching staff (a well deserved reputation of his). Woods already has shown he is injury prone. And Prior, the key to the whole thing, suffered a bad injury last season as well. Hopefully Dusty doesn't kill them all. Then again, it is Dusty.

-Jrabbit · February 1, 2005, 00:41

We'll just have to disagree on Patterson. The fact that the promise is not yet realized does not mean it won't be. He has shown signs.

And yes, I blame Dusty for a lot of the problems this team had last year. But it's much more about leadership than about starter innings.

Re the sosa captancy, SamME wanted the ownership, he said again and again it was his team. Dusty took him at his word and treated him like a man. SamME showed nothing.

Sosa will likely have a good year in that little bandbox in Baltimore. Little media pressure, no expectation of team success -- just like when he had his good years in Chicago.

Garciaparra is a big question mark to me. I think they signed him because they knew they needed something to replace Sosa. I did not agree with it at the time, still don't. I wanted the kid from Montreal all along. But if nomar is healthy and plays hard, it'll still be a big upgrade at SS.

BTW, love that Ben F quote in your sig -- where's that from?