The Offseason Baseball Thread

[Imran Siddiqui]

Yeah, the Front Office was all numbers oriented when Clemens and Eckersley left . Oh man, tell us another whopper!

[Lawrence of Arabia]

Bonds doesn't have any heart? Are you insane? There is not guy out there who works as hard. He's one of those people out at batting practice at insane hours.

thats not heart, thats work ethic.

Crashed and burned? Not their hitting, which remained strong. Oakland lost out because their pitching hit 5+ ERA. And they still had 91 wins. What crashing and burning?

on sept 1 when youre ahead of the next team by 5 - 7 games, and you lose, thats crash and burning. no team chemistry, couldnt come bback when they started to slide, even as you said, OBP teams supposedly have more heart. these guys showed none.

Which is why the year before they were the #1 team when April ended? Sorry, they played good before Nomar and after Nomar. Nothing to do with Cabrera.

how many rings did the sox get with nomar? ok thanks. thats all i wanted to know.

[Lawrence of Arabia]

if the mets wanna sign varitek for five years 55 million with a no trade clause, do it. if they wanna sign him for 4 years 44 million with a no trade clause, do it. sox should sign him for 4 years 36/40 million, with a clause that says if to be traded, sox need to pay him $100,000,000. thats the same as a no trade clause, just not in words. and besides in two years he'll be a 10/5 guy anyways, so no problem.

[Imran Siddiqui]

thats not heart, thats work ethic.

Work ethic leads to heart. What do you think heart is?

on sept 1 when youre ahead of the next team by 5 - 7 games, and you lose, thats crash and burning.

Actually it was more like 2 games. That isn't crashing and burning, it's just the way the season works.

no team chemistry, couldnt come bback when they started to slide, even as you said, OBP teams supposedly have more heart. these guys showed none.

No heart or team chemistry on the A's. How do you think they average 95 wins over the last 6 years while averaging in the bottom 5 in payroll? That's heart and chemistry and smart GMing .

They weren't even supposed to be above 90 wins with their small payroll, losing their key batter (Tejada) not long after losing their key batter (Giambi). With their only offensive star still on the team (Chavez) injured for 2 months in the middle of the year.

They've overachieved like no one has for 6 years and they have no heart? They lost their star batter in the offseason and then lost their best current batter to injury for 2 months and STILL finished with 90+ wins.

how many rings did the sox get with nomar?

Thanks for making my point for me .

[Arrian]

and the angels, yankees, and cards didnt have as much heart and chemistry. remember when you were up 3- 0 in the ALCS? can a computer put together a team that will come back from that deficit, who have the heart and chemistry to do it? i dont think so.

The 2004 Boston Red Sox were a superior team to the 2004 New York Yankees - and that was widely known GOING INTO THAT SERIES! The surprise wasn't really the Sox winning (historically surprising, but not if you're a stats guy!), but that they were ever down 0-3! In the end the best stats team won!

The Angels were really hurt by injuries and also the suspension to their dickwad outfielder (name escapes me) who was nonetheless one of their better players. And they did attempt an epic comeback (Vlad's grand slam), but I guess that shows no heart at all.

The Cards... hell, aside from their known weakness: lack of dominant starting pitching, I'm not really sure what happened there. But some odd things can happen in 4 games.

...

There *is* something to the issue of Boston players feeling bitter when they leave. Both Duquette and now to a degree Epstein have done some things to alienate players. That's something to work on.

Having said that, Pedro's a ****in' diva, man! Ultimately, he wanted "respect" he doesn't warrant. He's gotten a shitload of respect from that organization over the years, and now they're a bit wary of his long-term health so he feels betrayed or something? You gotta be kiddin' me.

-Arrian

[Imran Siddiqui]

LoA: Oh, AND you keep hyping Youklis. Who do you think is the James/Beane/Moneyball prototype? The guy walks a ton and is what Bill James is about. If he suceeds, so does the statistical analysis you like to decry.

[Lawrence of Arabia]

Yeah, the Front Office was all numbers oriented when Clemens and Eckersley left . Oh man, tell us another whopper!

it wasnt as much, but we have the same problems then as now. a FO who treats athletes like pieces of a machine instead of people.

millar is also moaning now demanding that the other guy (mintkeivaxnmkz) get traded cuz he has proven himself.

[Arrian]

Youklis, by the way, may be a good example of an over-hyped stat guy. He's decent, but the "Greek God of Walks" from Moneyball is NOT going to be a star player in MLB. He has his limitations.

What most people don't seem to understand is that the "Moneyball" style of GMing that Billy Beane represents is all about finding a type of player that is generally undervalued by other GMs. It's not about finding the "best" player. It's about finding the most cost-effective way to put together a winning team. If a certain type of player is undervalued, then you can get him relatively cheap, and parlay that into additional payroll flexibility. This is how the As, with their tiny payroll, compete every year.

-Arrian

[Imran Siddiqui]

There *is* something to the issue of Boston players feeling bitter when they leave. Both Duquette and now to a degree Epstein have done some things to alienate players. That's something to work on.

Having said that, Pedro's a ****in' diva, man! Ultimately, he wanted "respect" he doesn't warrant. He's gotten a shitload of respect from that organization over the years, and now they're a bit wary of his long-term health so he feels betrayed or something? You gotta be kiddin' me.

But with Pedro that was ridiculous. He didn't want to be in "Schilling's shadow"!! What is Theo to do? Trade Schilling for Pedro's sake?

[Arrian]

millar is also moaning now demanding that the other guy (mintkeivaxnmkz) get traded cuz he has proven himself.

Kevin Millar!

That's rich. I can understand Pedro getting the ego he has - he was for a time the most dominant, electric starting pitching in MLB. He *has* earned some respect.

But Kevin Millar? Bwaaahahahaha!

-Arrian

[Arrian]

Oh, and by the way:

Pedro didn't want to be "in Shilling's shadow"

Millar wants Man-Cave-Itch traded.

How ABOUT that team chemistry, fellas! I'm feelin' the love!

-Arrian

[Imran Siddiqui]

Youklis, by the way, may be a good example of an over-hyped stat guy. He's decent, but the "Greek God of Walks" from Moneyball is NOT going to be a star player in MLB. He has his limitations.

It depends what you mean by 'star player' . His OBP will make him a fixture in Boston's lineup for years. He's got some decent pop (by no means a slugger) as well. I'd see him as a John Olerud / Will Clark type of player. Star, but not superstar, but very valuable.

[Imran Siddiqui]

Originally posted by Arrian
Oh, and by the way:

Pedro didn't want to be "in Shilling's shadow"

Millar wants Man-Cave-Itch traded.

How ABOUT that team chemistry, fellas! I'm feelin' the love!

-Arrian

How did the ego get so big on players on that team? Millar getting a big head is just ridiculous. I don't know where he gets off. Maybe if he played better defense, Mienky wouldn't have had to be brought in.

[Arrian]

Useful? Sure. And that's what I'm saying (btw, we seem to have different definitions of "star").

But media hype being what it is... it's been blown out of proportion.

Similarly, when the media suddenly "discovered" that Carlos Beltran was a damn good CF... BOOM, he's like OMG TEH BEST PLAYER EVA!!!

He's good. Very good. But he's not THAT good. Same sort of situation with Youklis. It happens all the time. It just doesn't often happen with a moneyball-type highOBP player (unless they also hit a bundle of HRs or do some other more conventional cool thing).

-Arrian

[Arrian]

How did the ego get so big on players on that team? Millar getting a big head is just ridiculous. I don't know where he gets off. Maybe if he played better defense, Mienky wouldn't have had to be brought in.

Absolutely agreed. Millar is a streaky hitter who mashes lefties (IIRC), but is nearly useless in the field. He's not NEARLY a good enough hitter to be the DH, and besides, Ortiz has that locked up. So where does he play? RF if Nixon's hurt, but if not, Nixon's better. 1b, unless somebody actually qualified for the position can (Man-Cave-Itch isn't exactly a slugger, but his defense is SO much better, and he's a lefty...). This makes Millar a 4th outfielder/bench player. Which is EXACTLY what he should be.

Winning that WS up in Boston is what did it, though, Imran. These guys are like Gods right now. Which is kinda cool, good for them & Boston, but the F.O. has a mess on its hands.

-Arrian

[Imran Siddiqui]

Useful? Sure. And that's what I'm saying (btw, we seem to have different definitions of "star").

Seems like it . If Youkilis becomes a Olerud/Clark type player I'd call him a star. He's got a chance to be that type of player.

Oh, and I do agree on Beltran. Also one wonders if Beltran can be consistently that good as he was in the playoffs. He hasn't shown it yet.

And Mientkiewicz is human vacuum cleaner at 1B. Best defensive 1B I've seen since the aforementioned Olerud. The Sox need to keep him.

[Lawrence of Arabia]

http://www.boston.com/sports/basebal...7/rising_star/

thats an article on hanley ramirez. seems like hes got some maturing to do, but in 2 - 3 years, he should be ready to go.

Work ethic leads to heart. What do you think heart is?

heart is turning around a bad season, turning around a bad stretch of games, coming back from an 0-3 deficit. work ethics MAY in some cases lead to heart, but not always. heart doesnt come from anywhere in many cases, you either have it or you dont, and it cant be measured until youre in a tight spot. to get a team together that has heart is a hard thing to do and is overlooked today, especially by moneyballers.

Actually it was more like 2 games. That isn't crashing and burning, it's just the way the season works.

comon, you should know this state boy. there have been very very very few teams in first place on sept 1 who have not gone to the playoffs over the history of MLB. thats crashing and burning

Thanks for making my point for me

no, it made my point. it had everything to do with cabrera. he was the guy who put us into the playoffs.

LoA: Oh, AND you keep hyping Youklis. Who do you think is the James/Beane/Moneyball prototype? The guy walks a ton and is what Bill James is about. If he suceeds, so does the statistical analysis you like to decry.
LoA: Oh, AND you keep hyping Youklis. Who do you think is the James/Beane/Moneyball prototype? The guy walks a ton and is what Bill James is about. If he suceeds, so does the statistical analysis you like to decry.

what does this hav to do with heart? he will be a great player, but does he have heart, and does he get along with everyone else in the clubhouse? you dont know that.

The 2004 Boston Red Sox were a superior team to the 2004 New York Yankees - and that was widely known GOING INTO THAT SERIES! The surprise wasn't really the Sox winning (historically surprising, but not if you're a stats guy!), but that they were ever down 0-3! In the end the best stats team won!

The Angels were really hurt by injuries and also the suspension to their dickwad outfielder (name escapes me) who was nonetheless one of their better players. And they did attempt an epic comeback (Vlad's grand slam), but I guess that shows no heart at all.

The Cards... hell, aside from their known weakness: lack of dominant starting pitching, I'm not really sure what happened there. But some odd things can happen in 4 games.

sure, those teams showed some heart, but not as much as the sox, who rebounded from a grandslam to win it. how many teams do that? not many. those teams did have a certain amount of heart, but NOT AS MUCH as the sox. angels were not able to come back from suspension of a good player (Jose Guillen) didnt you read what i said? i said didnt show as much heart as the sox. you guys are so foaming at the mouth to jump over me that youre forgetting to read.

Having said that, Pedro's a ****in' diva, man! Ultimately, he wanted "respect" he doesn't warrant. He's gotten a shitload of respect from that organization over the years, and now they're a bit wary of his long-term health so he feels betrayed or something? You gotta be kiddin' me.

i agree, in this new interview he just sounds like a whiner.

cmon imran, you gotta try harder. your arguments are falling flat. i need some entertainment

[Imran Siddiqui]

he will be a great player, but does he have heart, and does he get along with everyone else in the clubhouse? you dont know that.

Neither does anyone who makes a deal or signs a FA. Chemistry is a fickle thing that you can't trade for or sign. You won't know if chemistry works until everyone is together. How do you build a team for chemistry if you don't know if people click until they get on the same team?

sure, those teams showed some heart, but not as much as the sox

First it was these teams have no heart. Then it was they don't have as much heart... make up your mind.

it had everything to do with cabrera. he was the guy who put us into the playoffs.

That's hilarious. Yeah, forget about Schilling, and Manny, and Ortiz, and Nixon coming back, and Millar, and Mueller... it was alllll Cabrera!

Oh, and IIRC, you were bemoaning the trade when made while I was saying what a great deal it was because Cabrera was above average and Nomar was a cancer. ANOTHER win for me!

there have been very very very few teams in first place on sept 1 who have not gone to the playoffs over the history of MLB. thats crashing and burning

How many? Out of how many? And what was their lead on Sept 1? How many teams that had a 5 game lead or less didn't make it? Out of how many?

You can't make bald assertions without the STATS to back it up, you dirty liar .

cmon imran, you gotta try harder. your arguments are falling flat. i need some entertainment

You are getting totally schooled by Arrian and me. I don't know what you are sniffing.

[Arrian]

sure, those teams showed some heart, but not as much as the sox, who rebounded from a grandslam to win it. how many teams do that? not many. those teams did have a certain amount of heart, but NOT AS MUCH as the sox. angels were not able to come back from suspension of a good player (Jose Guillen) didnt you read what i said? i said didnt show as much heart as the sox. you guys are so foaming at the mouth to jump over me that youre forgetting to read.

So every team that ever wins wins because they have more heart than the other team, eh?

The Yankees clearly have more heart than the Twins! Oh, wait, they also have over triple the payroll and thus more talent.

The Sox won with TALENT (talent, I might add, that was cobbled together by a smart F.O. for 2/3 the cost of the Yankees inferior talent). For the first time I've ever seen, they had a complete package: starting pitching, bullpen, hitting, defense, and even situational baserunning. And so, when placed in those key situations, they could succeed. They could blow teams out in slugfests, they could shut teams out, they could win tight late/extra innings games. They could scratch the tying run off Mariano Rivera when it mattered most. That was TALENT. Heart too, but you need heart just to get to the Majors.

Did the '77 - '78 Yankees have "chemistry" and "heart?" The '86 Mets? Come on.

-Arrian

[Lawrence of Arabia]

Oh, and by the way:

Pedro didn't want to be "in Shilling's shadow"

Millar wants Man-Cave-Itch traded.

How ABOUT that team chemistry, fellas! I'm feelin' the love!

well, it lasted just long enough to make the point.

Winning that WS up in Boston is what did it, though, Imran. These guys are like Gods right now. Which is kinda cool, good for them & Boston, but the F.O. has a mess on its hands.

yep.

First it was these teams have no heart. Then it was they don't have as much heart... make up your mind.

go back and read. i never said those teams had no heart, i said they had less heart.

That's hilarious. Yeah, forget about Schilling, and Manny, and Ortiz, and Nixon coming back, and Millar, and Mueller... it was alllll Cabrera!

pretty much. schilling, manny, and ortiz, with spot apperances by mueller led the team to a 10 game above 500 record for 2/3 of the season. as soon as cabrera came on the team, they won like 3/4 of their last games.

So every team that ever wins wins because they have more heart than the other team, eh?

Cmon Arrian, youre better than this. I never said ALL teams win because of heart!!!

he Sox won with TALENT (talent, I might add, that was cobbled together by a smart F.O. for 2/3 the cost of the Yankees inferior talent). For the first time I've ever seen, they had a complete package: starting pitching, bullpen, hitting, defense, and even situational baserunning. And so, when placed in those key situations, they could succeed. They could blow teams out in slugfests, they could shut teams out, they could win tight late/extra innings games. They could scratch the tying run off Mariano Rivera when it mattered most. That was TALENT. Heart too, but you need heart just to get to the Majors.

and that talent had the team on July 31st as 10 games above .500, who had played .500 ball for the last two months, and were 15 games behind the yanks. it was heart that lead to the comeback, the never say die attitude, and then brought them into the playoffs, where they survived a deflating grandslam whihch woulda sunk most teams, and then survived an 0-3 deficit which sunk every team before them.

[Imran Siddiqui]

go back and read. i never said those teams had no heart, i said they had less heart.

You said Oakland had no heart though.

pretty much. schilling, manny, and ortiz, with spot apperances by mueller led the team to a 10 game above 500 record for 2/3 of the season. as soon as cabrera came on the team, they won like 3/4 of their last games.

And what was their record before Nomar came back from injury?

[Arrian]

[Lawrence of Arabia]

How many? Out of how many? And what was their lead on Sept 1? How many teams that had a 5 game lead or less didn't make it? Out of how many?

You can't make bald assertions without the STATS to back it up, you dirty liar

well ive got it right here
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/200...kees.starters/

Oh, and IIRC, you were bemoaning the trade when made while I was saying what a great deal it was because Cabrera was above average and Nomar was a cancer. ANOTHER win for me!
v

thats the past, this argument is now. you should concentrate on this one. you had no idea how good cabrera was gonna be.

[Lawrence of Arabia]

You said Oakland had no heart though.

i said the 04 oakland team had no heart.

And what was their record before Nomar came back from injury?

i dont know, you tell me. gimme their record with nomar in the lineup and without nomar in the lineup.

[Arrian]

and that talent had the team on July 31st as 10 games above .500, who had played .500 ball for the last two months, and were 15 games behind the yanks.

Some of which was simply bad luck, which happens to all teams. Some of which may have been some bad managing by Francona. Some of which was due to poor defense.

You talk as if it was instant success once Cabrera showed up. It wasn't, IIRC. At first, nothing much happened. But about a week or two in, they really caught fire. Now you believe that's because of "chemistry" and "heart." Fine, sure, whatever.

I distinctly recall that, at the time of the Sox's malaise, I brought up the "Pythagorean Standings." These showed that the Sox were something like 10 games under where they "should" have been based on their runs for/against. This, according to we stat heads, is attributable mainly to luck. The Yankees, meanwhile were +10 or more.

Here are the final Pythagorean standings for the AL East:

Boston 98-64 98-64 0
NY Yankees 89-73 101-61 +12

Boston ended up breaking even - they had exactly the record they "should" have had based on their run scoring & run prevention. The Yankees, meanwhile, overperformed by 12 games (TWELVE! Holy crap). To me, this indicates that the Sox had been due for some better luck, and they got it. The Yanks, somehow, remained lucky as all hell. Was that chemistry & heart? Kevin Brown punching the wall, Giambi out due to steroid-related health problems (by the way - you were absolutely right there, kudos), Vasquez being a little *****... etc.

-Arrian

[Arrian]

thats the past, this argument is now. you should concentrate on this one. you had no idea how good cabrera was gonna be.

Imran was right back then, when he said "good trade." He didn't think Cabrera was going to be the reincarnation of the Messiah, but he was also right about that. You, meanwhile, have swung from one extreme to another, and remain wrong.

-Arrian

[Imran Siddiqui]

well ive got it right here

So since 1995, 10 teams have made up a September deficit. That's about 1 per year. So the Angels coming back to beat the A's is par for the course .

That article says nothing about how many teams had a 5 game or less lead.

thats the past, this argument is now. you should concentrate on this one. you had no idea how good cabrera was gonna be.

In the past and in the present, I PWN you. I knew the Sox were going to be much better without Nomar. I predicted it and you didn't. So I have the upper hand .

i said the 04 oakland team had no heart.

And which is utter bullshit .

i dont know, you tell me. gimme their record with nomar in the lineup and without nomar in the lineup.

59-35 That's a winning percentage of .628. If they kept that winning % through the entire year, they would have been the #2 team in the league behind St. Louis and their .648 winning %. FYI, the Sox finished with a winning % of .605.

[Arrian]

Look, ultimately, putting together the best baseball team you can has everything to do with mixing & matching players with various talents. There are general truths (OBP good, SLG good, speed good, etc), but teams have to be multi-dimensional, so you need a mixture of players. That's not "chemistry" mind you. It's a mix of TALENT.

Cabrera, as nice & fun a guy as he may be, has certain talents. Among them:

Good defense
Decent speed
Decent batting average

He also has weaknesses:

Lowish OBP, due to lack of patience
Little power

Those drawbacks, however, are ok on the Red Sox, because the Red Sox already had a shitload of patience and power, but were lacking speed & defense. He fit in to the talent mixture and did make them better (and again, a lot of it has to do with replacing a SS who wasn't playing very much, forcing the Sox to use a platoon 2b - Pokey - at SS).

Edit: but their resurgance wasn't just about him, anyway. Nixon came back from injury. Man-Cave-Itch could play 1b, allowing greater lineup flexibility. Was it also around that time that Foulke came out of his funk (he had that one hiccup period when he blew a bunch of saves ... most closers do)?

-Arrian

[Imran Siddiqui]

Arrian, I simply cannot believe we are having this conversation with the Deluded One. Can you IMAGINE? The Red Sox WIN THE WORLD SERIES and not even 3 months afterwards, LoA is critisizing the man who built the team!!! It's utterly flabbergasting!

[Arrian]

It reminds me of the sillier moments in the Cap/Com threads. Great for a Friday afternoon, I must say. Quite amusing.

-Arrian