The War: 1260AD

[vondrack]

Western Theatre

This is how the situation looks after we have opened the 1260AD save:

[vondrack]

Northern GS Fleet (NGSF)

NGSF has been split into two groups.

There is a small detachment force out in the ocean, consisting of 1 vet DD, 1 carrier, and 1 transport. Not quite sure what good they are there... considering that GS have added 8 more marines (or so, not 100% sure about the number - but I am sure they didn't have 55 of them, which is what they have got now) to their rooster and the armada we spotted last turn had 13 transports only (and still has just that many), it could be a trace of a transport-chain used to move the newly built marines from a port to the core group... there are 2 submarines (a vet and a regular) of ours capable of attacking this detachment force - but I do not think it would be such a great idea to attack it. It's more important for us to be able to see without being seen than sinking these ships - they can do no harm to us in 1265AD.

The core of NGSF, 7 vet and 1 regular DDs escorting 13 transports, is exactly where we've been expecting it - in Danger Zone North, W-W-SW of Sandonorico, threatening Forkmouth, Sandonorico, and Quanto Mechanico. It's just outside of range of our land-based artillery, but well within the reach of Task Force North (TFN) - most our BBs actually sit right N of the NGSF core (even H.B.S. Legopolis could join the party, if needed).

We have 10 combat ships capable of attacking the core of NGSF: 7 battleships (six 4/4 ones, one 2/4 one), 2 vet DDs (newly built in Sandonorico and Q.M.), and 1 vet submarine (U-Sa1, which is S-S-SW-SW of the GS fleet). Considering that almost all GS DDs are full 4/4 health, it seems our chances to kill their whole escort are pretty low. It's not near-zero, but it's low - the probability of the eight 4/4 ships to win their battles is slightly less than 20% (overall). However, individual odds are not that bad: BBs have a 83.3% chance to sink their 4/4 DD, 4/4 DDs still sink a 4/4 DD in 2 out of 3 cases...

So... as Leo said, there seems to be little reason to change our plans here. We just ram everything we've got around into this fleet and pray loud. If we are lucky, we may reduce the DD escort to something quite weak, not allowing GS to parade along the coast in 1265AD.

The proposed order of attack:
First, we attack with all six 4/4 BBs (odds to win: 83.3%). They attack directly S and do not move any further, if victorious - to allow for maximum flexibility after the whole battle is over. Then, 4/4 DDs from Sandonorico and Quanto Mechanico (odds to win: 66.4%) attack. It seems the tile they will attack from is not that important... we just keep in mind that the only tile within the reach of the new 4/4 DD finished in Q.M. this turn that is outside of any GS ship range in 1265AD, is E of the NGSF - thus, we either attack from SE or E with this DD, so that we can move to Sandonorico W-SW, if surviving the battle.

Then we attack with H.B.S. Legopolis or U-Sa1, depending on which one of them will have better odds of killing the strongest remaining DD. Then we send in the other one.

And that will be it.

BTW... because of where GS moved SGSF, our plan to block Q.M. West is now very difficult to carry out - that tile is within the reach of both NGSF and SGSF, so we'd have to stuff ships there enough to stop attacks by DDs from both their fleets... we'd have to be extremely lucky with our strike at NGSF to still be able to pull the trick...

The number of GS DDs capable of attacking Q.M. West will be 5+(8-V1) (5 DDs from the SGSF, the rest is how many DDs are left in the NGSF - V1 is the number of our victorious attacks there). The number of our ships capable of defending that tile will be 3+V2 (3 DDs from Abilene and whatever survives the strike at NGSF and is still capable of reaching Q.M. West - means only victorius BBs now N of NGSF... denoted V2).

Means, for every 4/4 BB lost, we'll need one other non-4/4-BB (a DD, sub, or 2/4 BB) to win to be safe at Q.M. West, since if just a single 4/4 BB loses, the balance would be 5+(8-5)=8 attackers against 3+(6-1)=8 defenders. GS would have to be extremely lucky to break through in this case, but we are talking about leaving Q.M. completely undefended here - we could take NO risk at all.

That's not really... uhm... encouraging...

[vondrack]

Southern GS Fleet (NGSF)

SGSF has been split into two groups, too.

There is a small force composed of one 3/4 DD and three transports W-W-SW-SW of Abilene. This is just plain suspicious... such a weak escort... but alas, we can rely on no assumptions here - the transports can still be full of marines, for all we know. We can bomb this group with 2 bombers from Abilene and attack with 7 ships total: 2 vet submarines (U-H1 and U-H3), 3 vet DDs (H.B.S. Myrmidon, H.B.S. Pollux in Abilene, and the newly built DD in Tipperary), and 2 regular DDs (H.B.S. Castor and the newly built DD, both in Abilene). This sounds like pretty good odds to wipe this force out... even if it turned out to be just a decoy, we would be able to safely leave Tipperary out of the defense equation - and that, gentlemen, would be awesome! Tipperary is one of our most difficult to defend cities, since it's on flat ground and not a metropolis.

The core of SGSF is now N-N-N of the smaller SGSF force (W-W-SW-SW-SW of Q.M.). It consists of 3 veteran and 2 regular DDs, a carrier, and 8 transports. It's capable of mounting a blitz-through attack at Q.M. or Abilene. If there were no other operations of ours, we could use up to 6 ships to attack it: 1 vet submarine (U-Sa1, N-NE of SGSF), 3 vet DDs (H.B.S. Myrmidon, H.B. Pollux from Abilene, and a newly built DD from Q.M.), and 2 regular DDs (both now in Abilene).

We should, however, keep in mind that this would compromise attacks at NGSF (using U-Sa1 and the new 4/4 DD from Q.M.) and the smaller SGSF fleet (using the bombers and almost all DDs in the area). To sink all six DDs, all our attackers would have to win, because at a certain moment, the 4/4 GS carrier (stats 1/8/4) would become the top defender thanks to its defense of 8 (same as a DD, which is stats 12/8/5), leaving one of the DDs to be the last defender.

Completely or almost completely stripping NGSF of its escort and getting safely rid of the distraction SGSF fleet (being able to leave Tipperary defensesless) sounds like more important and easier to achieve goals than trying to expose the core of SGSF.

So... I am not 100% sure about the plan here, but IMHO, we should focus on the smaller force, using as much force to sink it as necessary. That would allow us to leave Tipperary defensless - after all, that would more than balance having to defend Q.M. (as Q.M. is a metro, thus having better defense bonus than Tipperary).

[vondrack]

Because of the importance of this turn (and because I've got some work to do, too ), I'm going to wait until evening my time to start playing the turn. Say, 8pm GMT? I know that you guys from the US will not be home yet, but if I wait for you, I will get no sleep.

I hope you will have a couple of spare minutes to have a look and let me know if there's anything I should do differently. Currently, the plan would be:

1) throw everything we have at NGSF
2) sink the smaller SGSF force

Everything past these two operations would be subject to the results we get.

[redstar1]

I agree completely. Having looked at the save I think on a good day, with the RNG in our favour we could possibly sink the 8 dds from NGSF and surround the transports meaning they can't land. GS would have to divert the escort from the larger SGSF force to break these transports out. At the very least it puts a spanner in their plans.

Worth a go

[vondrack]

Alright, 8:15pm GMT. After sorting through all your responses , I guess it's time to roll the dice.

I am going to attack NGSF with all we have and then hopefully sink the detached part of SGSF as posted earlier today. Report should be up within half an hour.

God help us.

[vondrack]

FREAKIN' UNBELIEVABLE!!!!!

ALL EIGHT 4/4 SHIPS ATTACKING NGSF WON THEIR BATTLES!!! NGSF LEFT WITH NO ESCORT!!!

**** me if I hoped for such a result!

[lmtoops]

WOW!!!!!!

So we can build the sea wall, which would almost eliminate an amphib. assault on a city. I doubt that GS will attack with a fully loaded transport.

I hope our luck holds out. We still have the SGSF to attack (I hope the transports are full), and the spy mission. Please keep me posting the updates.

Leo

[vondrack]

OK, before engaging the transports, here is the list of GS units as reported by our spy:

10 settlers
25 workers
4 explorers
55 marines
20 riflemen
40 infantry
70 tanks
18 mech. infantry
14 artillery
2 galleys
27 transports
2 carriers
12 destroyers
2 fighters

[Tiberius]

YAY !!!



So, should we attack with H.B.S Legopolis and U-Sa1 as well ? Maybe we could sink some full transports after all

[vondrack]

As we are going to attack NGSF with both U-Sa1 and H.B.S. Legopolis, it does not matter which one goes first - both will be attacking a 4/4 transport. So, let's use the BB first, then sub.

BTW - I have updated the chronicle entry with the first eight attacks.

Stay tuned!

[vondrack]

Originally posted by Tiberius
So, should we attack with H.B.S Legopolis and U-Sa1 as well ? Maybe we could sink some full transports after all

I believe this is a no-brainer. Sinking a transport with eight of anything would be golden. Considering the odds to sink a 4/4 transport are 74.5% (BB) and 79.2% (sub), I do not see any options here. Just gimme a sec, I need to calm down a bit...

Updates coming soon.

[Tiberius]

Damnit, you're killing me. I'm sitting in a hotel lobby in Stockholm at 11 PM waiting for the latest Lego war news! I must be crazy

GIMME THE DAMN NEWS !!!!!!!!!!!!

[vondrack]

H.B.S. Legopolis sank a 4/4 transport with 8 marines aboard. Lost no hp, promoted to elite (3/5).

[Tiberius]

That's f***ing unbelievable