Wot no coronavirus thread? Thread broken - see new thread

[Jon Miller]

Without hospitalization, even children die:
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/w...-a9429946.html

JM

[Jon Miller]

The people at 538 are not generally very good at analytics outside of elections. I don't know why you would quote them. They're using the massively inflated naive cfr rates and applying them to the US population as a whole.

I know that they are mostly good at sports and elections (and not good at politics). I don't have much experience with their other analysis.

JM

[Jon Miller]

https://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/this-is-very-important-from-italy-please-read

This is a useful discussion of the likely compounding effects.

JM

[Ted Striker]

Right-wing propagandist Glenn Beck told viewers of his BlazeTV show that Americans who are older should just go back to work and prepare to die: "Even if we all get sick, I would rather die than kill the country."

You gonna volunteer to die then Glenn?

Once again we have Republicans acting as if they are spectators to a life experience than SOMEONE ELSE has to go through as if they were watching a movie.

https://www.salon.com/2020/03/27/tru...or-capitalism/

[Ted Striker]

The phrase "life unworthy of life" was a Nazi designation for the segments of the populace which, according to the Nazi regime of the time, had no right to live.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Life_unworthy_of_life

Glad the C ock Brothers are keeping their father's Nazi sympathizing legacy alive.

Everyone who thinks this should just spread and put the economy over life (which is a false choice to begin with), please get out there and expose yourselves and volunteer first.

[KrazyHorse]

Iceland estimates, based on widespread random testing, that something like 1% of its population is infected (roughly 3000 people). They've had 2 deaths so far. Given about two doublings from infection to death, this would give an IFR of roughly 0.25% (roughly 8 people dead among the 3000 currently infected).

Equivalent numbers in the US would mean that there's already about 1.5-2 million people infected. In a week it will be close to 10 million. A week after that we'll hit peak infection.

[ZEE]

Why are you guys complaining so much?

CHORTLE CHORTLE CHORTLE

[dannubis]

Based on the following data :

Mortality rate of 0.5%
Doubling rate of infected population : 4 days
5 days incubation time
15 days between first symptoms and death

You get to 6400 infections (including the ones who recovered) per reported death...
That sure is a lot of people...

[MOBIUS]

Why pick Iceland of all places!?

They've literally just started their infection track - most of those infected haven't yet got to the dangerous phase of the disease.

Surely better to pick a more 'mature' dataset like, South Korea for example...? I think the best case scenario you can hope for is an IFR of about 0.75% because there's a theory that up to 50% of people that get coronavirus are either asymptomatic or have such negligible symptoms as to not even realise they've got it.

So your 'do nothing' (which thankfully the US isn't doing!) would likely infect up to 80% of the population with such a high R0. 80% of 331m with an IFR of 0.75% is almost 20 million people.

Anyway, why are you in lockdown if you've got nothing to fear? Surely you should be out and about trying to get herd immunity for your family...?

Walk the walk, dude... Nothing to fear here...

[Dauphin]

Iceland estimates, based on widespread random testing, that something like 1% of its population is infected (roughly 3000 people). They've had 2 deaths so far. Given about two doublings from infection to death, this would give an IFR of roughly 0.25% (roughly 8 people dead among the 3000 currently infected).

Equivalent numbers in the US would mean that there's already about 1.5-2 million people infected. In a week it will be close to 10 million. A week after that we'll hit peak infection.

The more intriguing and in some ways pleasant news, was that 50% of infected appear to be completely asymptomatic.

[KrazyHorse]

Yup, and many of the rest have very mild cold-like symptoms.

it's why the diagnosis rate is so low.

On the anecdotal side, I personally know 3 people who have been diagnosed with it,but the only reason they even got tested was they had symptoms and live in a known infection hotspot. Furthermore they're affluent and have access to high quality on demand health care (unlike the poor, or residents of European countries) so they got tested quickly. Chances are that all of you have interacted with a number of infected people already.

[giblets]

Why pick Iceland of all places!?

They've literally just started their infection track - most of those infected haven't yet got to the dangerous phase of the disease.

Surely better to pick a more 'mature' dataset like, South Korea for example...? I think the best case scenario you can hope for is an IFR of about 0.75% because there's a theory that up to 50% of people that get coronavirus are either asymptomatic or have such negligible symptoms as to not even realise they've got it.

So your 'do nothing' (which thankfully the US isn't doing!) would likely infect up to 80% of the population with such a high R0. 80% of 331m with an IFR of 0.75% is almost 20 million people.

Anyway, why are you in lockdown if you've got nothing to fear? Surely you should be out and about trying to get herd immunity for your family...?

Walk the walk, dude... Nothing to fear here...

Mobius your final figure has an extra zero, you probably typed .075 into the calculator when it should be .0075

[BlackCat]

The Faroe Islands seems to have tested far more than f.ex. South Korea and it given some interesting observations. It seems like there are two distinct viruses with very different working patterns. Read more here.

[Jon Miller]

So 50% no symptoms, 40% mild symptoms and about 7.5% being severe or critical? Maybe most severe recover with hospitalization, but what about without hospitalization?

JM

[KrazyHorse]

No, more like 50/48/1.7/0.3 (no symptoms, cold, go to hospital but survive, die)

Again - iceland has had only 18 people in serious condition out of their estimated 3000 current cases. That number will go up somewhat (3-4 times) as the individual cases of the disease catch up with the exponential growth, but it is very, very telling.