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Monthly revolt % odds annualized [by AndrewT]

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  • Monthly revolt % odds annualized [by AndrewT]

    The revolt % you see on any given province in EU or EU2 is a chance per month for that province to revolt in that month. Here are the chances that a given province will revolt at least once in a year, at a certain monthly revolt %:


    Code:
    :--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    
                               %/year
    %/month      %/year    multi revolts 
    
       1          11.4           0.6
       2          21.5           2.3
       3          31.6           4.9
       4          38.7           8.1
       5          46.0          11.8
       6          52.4          16.0
       7          58.1          20.3
       8          63.2          24.9
       9          67.8          29.5
      10          71.8          34.1
      11          75.3          35.6
      12          78.4          43.1--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    
    
    So as you can see if a province has a 5% revolt chance per month, it is nearly 50% likely to revolt at least once in any given year. Each % increase from 1 -> 2 -> 3 is an extra 10% chance per year, quite significant. Above that the increment per monthly revolt % point drops quite a bit; so you can expect a noticeable change if you improve a province from 2% down to 1%, but you might not notice a drop from, say, 10% to 9%. 
    
    These numbers also apply to any other monthly % of course.
    Try http://wordforge.net/index.php for discussion and debate.
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