A is for Alphabet
It is New Year's Eve 4000BC. The game options have been chosen and the little globe icon appears over the dramatic music accompanying the "Building World" caption. The following morning two settlers lean on their spades attempting to clear hangovers from the night before. What starting techs do you have at turn one to assist in building the empire?
There are several factors that can determine the number and nature of techs received at the start. Terrain and your proximity to other civs can influence the number of techs, but the results are not consistent. There are many examples of dirt hole starts with little reward by way of science. When the nature of the techs is considered, the actual civilisation you have chosen to lead is crucial - more about this later.
From an analysis of thousands of game starts it appears you can have from 0 - 8 techs, from a choice of sixteen "possibles". Any tech received before 4000BC is important, as it does not affect the research rate. However, if a scroll of wisdom is procured from a hut during the first turn, this counts as research - making the next research require more beakers.
The figures below show the actual times the advance was recorded in a trial of 1764 starts. (2.42/Standard Large Map/Deity/Hordes.) On average each start under these conditions yielded about two techs per game.
The 16 starting advances are, in frequency of appearance:
TABLE 1
Bronze Working (896)
Alphabet (706)
Ceremonial Burial (575)
Horseback Riding (303)
Code of Laws (244)
Masonry (195)
Pottery (162)
Warrior Code (143)
Currency (137)
Mysticism (96)
Iron Working (72)
The Wheel (53)
Monarchy (21)
Trade (14)
Construction (10)
Map Making (2)
No advance is ever received without the prerequisite tech: i.e. no currency without bronze. On the game's tech-tree there are seven sciences which require no prerequisites. "Base Techs." These are (Alphabet/Bronze/Burial/Horse/Masonry/Pottery/Warrior).The above list is significant as Code of Laws comes in before three base techs. Perhaps the game designers were encouraging a change of government to Monarchy or even Republic?
The list is fascinating for what it excludes - no Writing or Mathematics. Probably the deadly diplo or powerful catapult was considered too potent so early in the game. Using the same logic we must assume that Polytheism and Feudalism were also excluded. Without these restrictions (allowing any 8 techs with prerequisites) it would be possible to have Chivalry at 4000BC - Alpha/Burial/Laws/Monarchy/Warrior/Horse/Feudalism/Chivalry. However, that is not too distant from the possible. We still have a 3850BC save with Feudalism! (A Monarchy start with two handy huts. (Warrior Code/Feudalism) It must be added that these are long odds to achieve such a situation!
The game provides each nation with characteristics. The Mongols are Aggressive Militaristic Expansionist, whilst the Babylonians are Rational Civilised Perfectionist. For the purposes of starting techs we only need to know whether an empire is:
Civilised: (1)
Romans/Babylonians/Germans/Egyptians/Americans/French/Aztecs/Chinese
Neutral: (0)
Indians/Zulus/English/Celts/Vikings/Persians/Sioux
Militaristic (-1)
Greeks/Russians/Mongols/Japanese/Spanish/Carthaginians
Using the same information as in Table 1 above, the data is interesting if the three categories of empires are considered separately.
TABLE 2 - CIVILISED
Alphabet (393)
Bronze Working (223)
Code of Laws (185)
Ceremonial Burial (171)
Masonry (171)
Pottery (135)
Currency (67)
Monarchy (16)
Mysticism (16)
Trade (12)
Construction (7)
Warrior Code (4)
Horseback Riding (2)
Iron Working (0)
Map Making (0)
Wheel (0)
TABLE 3 - NEUTRAL
Bronze Working (331)
Ceremonial Burial (244)
Alphabet (237)
Horseback Riding (132)
Currency (65)
Mysticism (57)
Code of Laws (53)
Pottery (27)
Warrior Code (23)
Masonry (21)
Iron Working (6)
Monarchy (5)
Wheel (5)
Construction (3)
Map Making (2)
Trade (2)
TABLE 4 - MILITARISTIC
Bronze Working (342)
Horseback Riding (169)
Ceremonial Burial (160)
Warrior Code (120)
Alphabet (76)
Iron Working (66)
Wheel (48)
Mysticism (23)
Code of Laws (6)
Currency (5)
Masonry (3)
Construction (0)
Map Making (0)
Monarchy (0)
Pottery (0)
Trade (0)
The fast track to Monarchy is weighted heavily for the Civilised Nations. However, one of the strengths of the game is its degree of balance. The Neutral Empires in Table 3 are the only ones that had all 16 starting sciences represented. The warlike gang in Table 4 may take longer to reach Monarchy, but have the better chance of Horseback Riding - good for exploring and killing early barbs. It is difficult chasing the King's 150 gold without something on four legs! (Both Horse/Wheel are on the road to Democracy).
The Egyptians have a much higher probability of starting with Masonry than any other civ. (62% of all their starts). Perhaps this is some historical genuflection to building the Pyramids. To test the "Historical Wonder" connection we also looked at the Greeks' chances of Bronze Working for building The Colossus. This worked out at 68% - which is good but not spectacular - compared to the Russians 76%. The theory cannot be extended to the Babylonians and The Hanging Gardens as they start with Pottery only 10% of the time, lagging behind half a dozen other nations!
The story so far has only concerned 2.42 on a Large Standard Map. Nearly 1500 trials were done on the same map size in MP (5.4). There was no discernible difference in the pattern of techs and civs. The same trend followed a Normal 2.42 World, though the number of techs per start is reduced to about 1.4. (It is still possible have 8 starting techs) On a Small 2.42 World the most techs recorded was six. When the World becomes smaller other factors come into play.
At the start the civs are placed in order of colours - beginning with white and ending with purple. To compensate for poor locations more science is sometimes given to the last empires to be placed. This process actually results in the techs per start being higher (around 1.6) than the medium map.
TABLE 5 - AVERAGE TECHS PER CIV COLOUR (Small Map)
(Based upon a 630 sample)
White = 1.27
Green = 1.23
Dark Blue = 1.33
Yellow = 1.33
Light Blue = 1.97
Orange = 2.1
Purple = 2.3
Compensations by way of science for poor terrain are by no means uniform. The orange and purple people often end up on an icecap with only a couple of techs in the deep freeze.
Proximity to other civs can influence the starting techs. Whilst there is a trend of compensation it is very random at times. (The Dateline can also mess this process around). The same story is true for huts and specials. However, if the settlers start on or very near a river - then there is a strong chance that few, if any, techs will be given. Whilst this kind of statement undoubtedly invites stories about encartas of knowledge floating down a river longer than the Amazon - the frequency of occurrence is the significant factor!
In nearly 5000 game starts, over many months, we have obviously generated a considerable amount of data. If anyone has need of detailed information about the chances of the Russians starting with 5.86 techs on a wet Wednesday - we will do our best to help!
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Research by both Gits - summary by SG (2)
Wow!
Great work there Scouse Gits. This very comprehensive testing (to say the least) has certainly shed light on some of the matters we were previously wondering about. Very interesting and entertaining as well.
I just have to ask if you in fact tested 84 starts with each of the 21 civs to make the total of 1764 - or if you tested more times with some of the civs and fewer with others? I'm guessing you used the first approach, right?
Again, very helpful the way you do your homework!
Good stuff, SGs. It shall need to re-read the post a time or two to extract full value. But before I indulge myself by doing so -
1,764 starts!
Now, I thought I played a lot but 1,764! Even allowing for your duality the mind boggles!
And the patience painstakingly to keep records, to boot.
Thank you indeed for sharing the fruits of your labours with us. In honour of your dedication I shall henceforth ensure that my empire will always include a "Liverpool" somewhere on its coastline and it will be a sad day when an ironclad or two does not sally forth from its shipyards.
quote:
Originally posted by Scouse Gits on 11-22-2000 10:24 PM
In nearly 5000 game starts, over many months, we have obviously generated a considerable amount of data. If anyone has need of detailed information about the chances of the Russians starting with 5.86 techs on a wet Wednesday - we will do our best to help!
ATT.: East Street Trader
Where did you get 1700 starts?
Seems to be 5000, and that is alot..
GOoD JOB SG!!!
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Life is pleasant. Death is peaceful. It's the transition that's troublesome"
-Isaac Asimov
I add my congratulations for a remarkable effort, SGs.
I have one question. While the civs are placed in order of colour, does the computer, at the same time, make a qualitative judgement about the start positions? In other words, does first get best? And last get worst? I've read this theory before and I've always had trouble with it because it doesn't seem to tally with my experience.
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Founder, ACS Pedantry Institute
Founder, ACS Gourmet Recipe Exchange
Troll & Hydey Wrangler
Mono Rules!
#33984591
Legman - 84 tests for each of the 21 civs. The initial number of trials for each civ was intended to be much lower until the Egyptians were tested. Their very high success rate with Masonry in the initial stages made us suspect we had a rogue poll! The expanded research for them was extended to the other 20 for consistency.
finbar - We don't know! There is an attempt to assess land value, but it is on the same level of intelligence the AI uses in the rest of the game. The default settings the game offers for working squares in any city are usually directed towards food. There is evidence that the same logic applies at the start. If the settlers are surrounded by green squares at 4000BC, the starting science appears to be less as the computer thinks the squares are "good".
The problem is attempting to gauge how far the game can analyse a starting position. Does it "see" only the 21 squares we do at 4000BC or can it examine the terrain just beyond?
I don't think first gets best - it is safer to say last gets worst - certainly on a small map.
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SG (2)
quote:
Originally posted by Scouse Gits on 11-22-2000 10:24 PM
The figures below show the actual times the advance was recorded in a trial of 1764 starts. (2.42/Standard Large Map/Deity/Hordes.) On average each start under these conditions yielded about two techs per game.
I think that's where EST got 1764...
Remarkable. From those stats it's best to be a light blue, neutral civ. Ok location and some good starting locations. I nominate this to go in the GL.
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What if the Hokey-Pokey is really what its all about?
Contact me at cpoland@mail.win.org
[This message has been edited by jcarkey (edited November 23, 2000).]
It's satisfying to learn that the Egytians get an edge on Masonry.
Seemingly costly in man hours for the discovery to be confirmed but definately another pleasing little twist to the game.
quote:
Originally posted by Scouse Gits on 11-23-2000 11:46 PM
The problem is attempting to gauge how far the game can analyse a starting position. Does it "see" only the 21 squares we do at 4000BC or can it examine the terrain just beyond?
I think it could be simpler than that, mon ami. It would have been silly programming on the creators' part to give certain colours better terrain - players would simply rush straight for those colours. Sure, the lesser terrain can bring free techs, but terrain seems to matter most to people. My experiences have indicated to me that the process is pretty much random. On the other hand, I haven't done the exhaustive testing you have.
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Founder, ACS Pedantry Institute
Founder, ACS Gourmet Recipe Exchange
Troll & Hydey Wrangler
Mono Rules!
#33984591
finbar
My experience, like yours, had made me think the extra tecs were randomly assigned.
But table 5 in the SGs paper looks decisive against that. I'm no statistician but I'd be willing to bet they have been rigorous enough to make those results statistically significant. And the differences are small enough so as to make it unsurprising that the pattern has not been palpable just from day to day experience.
On a related point, the appearance of Map Making on just two occasions suggests that the SGs list may not prove to be absolutely the last word. Perhaps one or two more techs can be assigned but so rarely that they failed to show up in the tests.
finbar - I think the initial placing of the first (white) civ is totally random. Then the game looks at the terrain the Romans have inherited and thinks "this place is a sh*thole - better give a few techs out" However, when it does this calculation how much of the hinterland around the 21 squares (if any) is it considering? We have probably all played games from seemingly dire starts only to find a 4 special spot a little distance away.
The next civ (the green one) is then placed. This is not quite as random, because there will be a bit of code that says "not too near the white one". The dark blue civ will have the slightly greater restriction of not too near the first two - and so on.
This all forms part of my PhD thesis on Guesswork!
EST - Yes we had well passed the 1000 mark before recording Map Making, in the belief that there were only sixteen possibilites (0 Techs + 15 choices)
It seems strange that the game doesn't use it more as compensation for being stuck on an island. Others may be out there!
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SG (2)
quote:
Originally posted by East Street Trader on 11-24-2000 11:25 AM
On a related point, the appearance of Map Making on just two occasions suggests that the SGs list may not prove to be absolutely the last word. Perhaps one or two more techs can be assigned but so rarely that they failed to show up in the tests.
Who knows with dang Map Making? The AI has unsinkable triremes from 4000BC. Presumably, as soon as a civ is identified as AI by the computer, it starts building triremes. Interestingly, on the occasions I've been bothered to investigate an AI civ early in the game, Map Making isn't on their list of techs. Yet they've been bombing my coastal cities with triremes.
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Founder, ACS Pedantry Institute
Founder, ACS Gourmet Recipe Exchange
Troll & Hydey Wrangler
Mono Rules!
#33984591
quote:
Originally posted by Scouse Gits on 11-24-2000 01:52 PM
finbar - I think the initial placing of the first (white) civ is totally random. Then the game looks at the terrain the Romans have inherited and thinks "this place is a sh*thole - better give a few techs out" However, when it does this calculation how much of the hinterland around the 21 squares (if any) is it considering? We have probably all played games from seemingly dire starts only to find a 4 special spot a little distance away.
The next civ (the green one) is then placed. This is not quite as random, because there will be a bit of code that says "not too near the white one". The dark blue civ will have the slightly greater restriction of not too near the first two - and so on.
This all forms part of my PhD thesis on Guesswork!
And a fine thesis it's going to be!My point, though, is that I'm not sure the computer looks for the "next best" terrain when it's placing the next colour. In other words, I don't think a colour higher up the order guarantees better terrain, and vice versa. I've created miniature maps and found civs of all colours starting on the Arctic and Antarctic circles.
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Founder, ACS Pedantry Institute
Founder, ACS Gourmet Recipe Exchange
Troll & Hydey Wrangler
Mono Rules!
#33984591
finbar i am willing to agree with you on the fact that all civs can end up just about anywhere on the map, however i do think that as civs are placed on the map, the further you are down the color group, the better your chance of being on the poles. I never have seen the white civs on the poles have you ?
I don't think techs are for compensation of land so much as compensation of proximity of other civs, which could still explain how some civs get alot of techs. As for which techs civs get, warlike civs get war techs and the pacifists get scholarly techs more often than not.
SG, did you say it took over a 1000 tries to get mapmaking? If so, i wonder why only neutral civs got it and neither the pacifist or the warmongers did?
BTW excellent job on the testing, more patience than i have
Congrats!!. Excelent job.
SGs: Is this on diety?
Yes. I think that was reported back in the introductory post.
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Founder, ACS Pedantry Institute
Founder, ACS Gourmet Recipe Exchange
Troll & Hydey Wrangler
Mono Rules!
#33984591
Great work!
. Does the apparent haaicaping for bad terrain at the intitial placement point (by extra tech) seem to be relative only to that map's terrain, or to all possible terrains? To be more specific, would a civ staring on glacier and tundra on a cold dry world world tend to get less tech than one starting on galcier and tundra on a wet temperate world?
. I recognise that the sample discribe above (standard large etc map) does not supply that data but does any one have a feel for whether bad overall maps generate more tech for all civs?
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Gauis Mucius Scaevola Sinistra
Pontificator Pendanticus
older richer & wiser than you
Seems to me the process is pretty erratic. I've started on islands 10 squares x 3 squares without a single bonus tech. I've started on perfectly reasonable terrain with no other civ within cooee and received techs. The time I created a miniature map and started on the Antarctic circle, I only received 2 or 3 techs. I'm coming to the view that ignorance is bliss.
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Founder, ACS Pedantry Institute
Founder, ACS Gourmet Recipe Exchange
Troll & Hydey Wrangler
Mono Rules!
#33984591
Scouse Gits:
My comments echo those of others on this thread — excellent job! There's a lot of information to digest as well and ...
***THUNK***
(Passes out from information overload.)
CYBERAmazon
I almost always play as the americans and i'm sure i've started with map making, which doesn't fit into your results above. i don't have any saves to prove it though.
DD - I am not surprised if there are very rare times when a civ gets a tech that didn't show up on SG's test.
In my early days playing the game, I thought I received Map Making more than the above research suggests. However, that was at a level around Warlord/Prince. I don't know if levels below Deity offer more starting techs - it would take a lot of testing to find out!
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SG (2)
reading this thread I am thinking about two things:
1. could it be that the techs you get from huts are also influenced by the civilize factor (or whatever we call this factor)?
2. and even more important. does the civilize factor influence the techs you´re allowed to research?
if the answer to those questions is yes, then this is really a breakthrough.
concerning map making, as a multiplayer who prefers 2x2x settings, the dream tech path for the beginning would be map making->pottery->seafaring (explorers). however I don´t even try going this path since I know I won´t ever get it early enough. especially map making seems to be too hard to get in the beginning.
anyway, good job SG
Yes - the thought crossed our minds that the advances from huts could be influenced by the type of civ being played.
There is no evidence for this - about a couple of hundred tests were made. All techs seemed equally available provided the prerequisites existed. From Turn One all tribes appear to have equal chances in the game. We didn't investigate the availabilty of techs for research.
The pattern of starting techs has a system of checks and balances. Masonry (for the conquerors' Great Wall) is available far more often to the civilised nations. Whilst Bronze (for the Perfectionists' Colossus) is more usually offered to the warlike tribes. (Though it is the most frequent advance given for all civs.)
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SG (2)
[This message has been edited by Scouse Gits (edited November 29, 2000).]
I have one word for this... absolutely incredible!! Okay, two words. But it is incredible!!
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Frodo lives!
Re: The techs you get from huts: There are certainly some variations on this as well. The trouble is pinpointing what determines it and what conditions rule out certain techs. I have no clue on how to begin testing for this.
But I had a first last night: I got Sanitation from a hut in the early midgame (and just as I'd started researching it myself
errr, sorry leg, but sanitation doesn´t need invention as prereqisite. as for example navigation, magnetism, or chemistry doesn´t either.
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