MLB 2014

[rah]

So you're saying they can't even tank properly?

No actually I was calling you an idiot. But at always, you're too stupid to realize that.

[SlowwHand]

Bunch of grumpy butts.

[EPW]

Maybe they should rename the All-Star game to "The Derek Jeter Jerk-off."

[rah]

I'm considering telling my wife that when I die I want the pall bearers to wear cubs jerseys so they can let me down one final time.

[Sava]

[EPW]

I'm in complete shock from this Lester for Cespedes trade...

[Imran Siddiqui]

It does baffle as to why the Red Sox got only an average hitter out of Lester, even if it was a rental.

[snoopy369]

Cespedes isn't an "average" hitter, by any reasonable definition, but he's not the superstar people think he is either; he's a power hitting outfielder with defensive deficiencies covered up by an amazing arm. He's a 28 year old (hopefully?) worth 2-3 WAR a year, and potential to be something like a 4-5 WAR player if he works out his K %. He's also probably a good fit for Fenway, given most of his home runs are to left, and he hits a lot of fly outs out there as well (which would be singles/doubles). (Interestingly, his fly balls are pretty evenly distributed, but his grounders are all to the SS side of the bag. He's a poster child for the Right Handed Shift if there ever was one.)

However, he has one thing going for him: fan interest. He's an interesting guy who gets on sportscenter and brings fans to the ballpark. That's worth a lot to any manager, plus the likely further development he may undergo (he hasn't hit his prime yet) is worth it as long as you're willing to sign an extension with him (FA after 2015, can't be tendered an offer in arbitration).

I suspect he adds 5-10 HR a year playing in Fenway, and he cuts his ~20% K% to 15% while doing so. That's worth $10MM a year. From the Red Sox' point of view, it's a good deal - 1/2 season of Lester for a starting OF at a reasonable price? I'll take it.

Also, his defensive deficiencies can be covered up some by playing in BOS, where the OF territory per OF is a bit smaller (since the LF doesn't have to play as deep, so he has more help range-wise). If he plays left, he can cut down guys at 2nd on balls off the Monster, and if he plays right he can be given a smaller section of the field to cover while still gunning guys down at the plate; a good deal for him either way. He seems like a classic guy meant for Fenway.

[Imran Siddiqui]

Slightly above average at best. He has a 114 OPS+ this year based solely on SLG. His OBP is .303 (no typo).

And why would Boston care about "fan interest". They could sell out the place with you and me at the corner outfield spots.

[Imran Siddiqui]

If you look at what Cespedes has done since his rookie year, his slash line is: .247/.298/.452 for an OPS+ of 108. For 600 ABs, he's a 3 WAR player.

[snoopy369]

Fan interest on the TV matters too. More national fans = more games on Fox/etc., more money for NESN, etc.

Looking again at his defense though makes me wonder where they will play him. Seems LF is a waste of his arm, after all... and he already has enough problems with routes to routine balls, the Monster will really mess that up. Maybe RF is in the cards, or CF (honestly don't know much about red sox OFs in terms of defense).

Using Fangraphs' WAR, he was 2.9 WAR his rookie year, 2.3 last year, and 2.3 so far this year. 2-3 WAR a year, exactly as I said (and could be 3.5 this year easily). Yes, his OBP is a bit off. His BABIP is also ridiculously low (.278). That number alone will skyrocket when his LF fly balls turn into doubles.

[snoopy369]

I'd also remind you that most Cubs fans would've said the same thing about Wrigley a few years ago. It's now at 80% capacity. If fans think BOS is going to 'rebuild' they'll start heading out pretty quick - especially after the recent successes they've had. BOS can potentially raise ticket prices, increase jersey sales (how many Cespedes jerseys will they sell in the next month? Hundreds of thousands perhaps?) etc.

[Imran Siddiqui]

His 2013 BAbip was even worse - .274. .275-.280 BAbip is likely his normal. Cespedes' rookie year was so impressive due to a 2nd half that his BAbip was .341 (absurdly high) and he's never come close to reach it again (his first time around he was .303 BAbip the first time he went through lineups). It seems to me that people have figured out Cespedes.

FWIW, it has been pointed out by Fangraphs that Sam Fuld, who Oakland re-acquired, has a 2.3 WAR so far this year. The same as Cespedes.

[snoopy369]

I doubt it. I suspect his BABIP will end up more like .300, like most players. People have 'figured him out' and then he will 'figure them out' again.

Yes, Fuld has been excellent this year, between a decent OBP and excellent defense. That trade was quite smart from Oakland's point of view. I won't argue Cespedes was an amazing player, and never have. But he's not an "Average" player, either.

[snoopy369]

So, in a non-poly league my team is in a heated pitching matchup, where the currently behind team (the other team) has a 2.4 ERA and 0.95 WHIP. We're tied at wins with 5 each, in part because I started Johnny Cueto last night and won after the interesting interpretation of the blocking the plate rule (http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/11...i-marlins-game).

If we win the week as a result, who do I send a bottle of wine to? The crew chief, or somebody in MLB New York HQ? Or Joe Torre?