Okay, long and somewhat confusing post but bear with me especially if you're in the top 10.
No one got a top score today so no real winner and other than azzaman dropping a few spots no changes in the top of the overall rankings.
For the overall win of this prediction competition it's almost certain that chegel will win if the Netherlands win the World Cup, as he was one of the few who predicted that at the start -- that would net him 10 points on top of the 6-point lead he already has. Only North King could theoretically beat that if Villa becomes(/stays) top scorer AND he predicts a tie after 90 minutes and gets an exact score on it (pretty slim odds as it is, and on top of it he's predicting 1-2 win for Spain right now).
If Spain wins the Cup instead it'll be a race between North King, azzaman and Arwon who all predicted Spain as champions and Villa as top scorer so they will earn either 13 or 20 points for those predictions alone -- the match result will determine which one of them will win.
Imran and Dauphin could still win as well but they'd have to change their current predictions as they have the exact same one as North King who's already above them in the current ranking. For Imran, basically any prediction other than 1-2 still gives him a chance to win. Dauphin will have to predict a tie other than 1-1 and get an exact score on it to outscore everyone above him (and avoid matching Imran's result if he changes his to a tie). Even chegel still has a chance here if he changes his prediction to a tie or win for Spain and gets an exact score for it -- providing Sneijder outscores Villa tomorrow.
Furthermore, SuperBeaverInc may also need to consider changing his match prediction. He predicted Spain as the champions but not Villa as top scorer so he'll only be able to earn 10 points there, in which case with his current 1-2 match prediction North King will almost certainly pass him (barring a miracle like Robben scoring 4 times and Sneijder at least once with no goals for Villa). An exact score with anything other than 1-2 will win SuperBeaverInc the prediction competition if Spain wins the Cup but Sneijder outscores Villa.
Warpus, I now see why asked about the top scorer earlier. To win this competition, you need Spain to raise the Cup, have no one earn ANY points from David Villa AND predict a tie for tomorrow yourself that ends up being an exact score. Unless of course SuperBeaverInc changes his prediction to a tie, in which case you need to predict a win for Spain that doesn't match North King's prediction (1-2) and get an exact score on that -- in which case you and North King would share the win. That's pretty tough, not to mention confusing (so I hope I got my math straight)...
You know what, if it ends up being the difference between chegel, warpus or SuperBeaverInc (or anyone I might've overlooked) winning this competition or not, I would like to interpret the rules in their literal sense and use Fifa's tie-breaker rules for the top scorer ranking -- fair is fair, that's what the rules currently state and it maximises the number of potential winners. If anyone else will win regardless though, I'd still like to be lenient as has been done in the past and try to give out as many points as possible, which means a lot more people earn more points overall but warpus and SuperBeaverInc (and possibly chegel and some folks outside of the top 10) likely end up dropping a few places in the ranking at their expense. (In this case SuperBeaverInc doesn't need to change his prediction, but warpus might want consider changing his to a tie if he wants a chance at winning this.) Does anyone object to that?
For the benefit of those that don't read the CFC thread, warpus's question to me and my response:
Going strictly by the definition of the rules we go by Fifa's official rankings, which breaks ties by assists and minutes played, but in the past we've always been pretty lenient about it and basically tried to award as many points as possible. Unless there are major objections, I'd say that if the current ranking doesn't change after tomorrow's game, anyone who predicted David Villa should get the full 10 points, even though technically Villa ranks only second after Müller (who got 2 more assists) and Sneijder could still pass him based on minutes played (the difference is only 3 minutes ATM).
Of course, if Sneijder outscores Villa tomorrow the latter is only worth 3 points. But barring a miracle (Robben scoring 4 goals? :dubious:) the 9 or 10 folks who predicted Villa as top scorer will get at least 3 points for their prediction...
Unless I screwed up my math no one else can win anymore, but with 40 participants even a mid-table position is not unimpressive and everyone at the bottom of the table missed a lot of games so they need not be ashamed either. And with at least 12 points still on the table (more for those who predicted Spain or the Netherlands to win the Cup and/or Villa to become top scorer), there's still plenty of room to move up the ranks.
Note that while Robert can't win the overall competition anymore, he still has a shot of becoming the best Apolytoner if the Netherlands end up lifting the Cup tomorrow -- although right now he'll have to share the honour with Imran if it takes more than 90 minutes to accomplish that (if either Imran or Dauphin change their predictions to a tie though Robert will need a win within regulation).
Ranking after day 24 (Google doc):
No one got a top score today so no real winner and other than azzaman dropping a few spots no changes in the top of the overall rankings.
For the overall win of this prediction competition it's almost certain that chegel will win if the Netherlands win the World Cup, as he was one of the few who predicted that at the start -- that would net him 10 points on top of the 6-point lead he already has. Only North King could theoretically beat that if Villa becomes(/stays) top scorer AND he predicts a tie after 90 minutes and gets an exact score on it (pretty slim odds as it is, and on top of it he's predicting 1-2 win for Spain right now).
If Spain wins the Cup instead it'll be a race between North King, azzaman and Arwon who all predicted Spain as champions and Villa as top scorer so they will earn either 13 or 20 points for those predictions alone -- the match result will determine which one of them will win.
Imran and Dauphin could still win as well but they'd have to change their current predictions as they have the exact same one as North King who's already above them in the current ranking. For Imran, basically any prediction other than 1-2 still gives him a chance to win. Dauphin will have to predict a tie other than 1-1 and get an exact score on it to outscore everyone above him (and avoid matching Imran's result if he changes his to a tie). Even chegel still has a chance here if he changes his prediction to a tie or win for Spain and gets an exact score for it -- providing Sneijder outscores Villa tomorrow.
Furthermore, SuperBeaverInc may also need to consider changing his match prediction. He predicted Spain as the champions but not Villa as top scorer so he'll only be able to earn 10 points there, in which case with his current 1-2 match prediction North King will almost certainly pass him (barring a miracle like Robben scoring 4 times and Sneijder at least once with no goals for Villa). An exact score with anything other than 1-2 will win SuperBeaverInc the prediction competition if Spain wins the Cup but Sneijder outscores Villa.
Warpus, I now see why asked about the top scorer earlier. To win this competition, you need Spain to raise the Cup, have no one earn ANY points from David Villa AND predict a tie for tomorrow yourself that ends up being an exact score. Unless of course SuperBeaverInc changes his prediction to a tie, in which case you need to predict a win for Spain that doesn't match North King's prediction (1-2) and get an exact score on that -- in which case you and North King would share the win. That's pretty tough, not to mention confusing (so I hope I got my math straight)...
You know what, if it ends up being the difference between chegel, warpus or SuperBeaverInc (or anyone I might've overlooked) winning this competition or not, I would like to interpret the rules in their literal sense and use Fifa's tie-breaker rules for the top scorer ranking -- fair is fair, that's what the rules currently state and it maximises the number of potential winners. If anyone else will win regardless though, I'd still like to be lenient as has been done in the past and try to give out as many points as possible, which means a lot more people earn more points overall but warpus and SuperBeaverInc (and possibly chegel and some folks outside of the top 10) likely end up dropping a few places in the ranking at their expense. (In this case SuperBeaverInc doesn't need to change his prediction, but warpus might want consider changing his to a tie if he wants a chance at winning this.) Does anyone object to that?
For the benefit of those that don't read the CFC thread, warpus's question to me and my response:
Originally posted by warpus
Of course, if Sneijder outscores Villa tomorrow the latter is only worth 3 points. But barring a miracle (Robben scoring 4 goals? :dubious:) the 9 or 10 folks who predicted Villa as top scorer will get at least 3 points for their prediction...
Note that while Robert can't win the overall competition anymore, he still has a shot of becoming the best Apolytoner if the Netherlands end up lifting the Cup tomorrow -- although right now he'll have to share the honour with Imran if it takes more than 90 minutes to accomplish that (if either Imran or Dauphin change their predictions to a tie though Robert will need a win within regulation).
Ranking after day 24 (Google doc):
Code:
1. chegel 162 (+6) 2. warpus 156 (+6) 3. SuperBeaverInc. 153 (+6) 4. North King 152 (+6) 5. Imran Siddiqui 149 (+6) 6. azzaman333 147 6. RobWorham 147 (+6) 8. Loppan Torkel 145 (+6) 9. Arwon 144 (+6) 9. Dauphin 144 (+6) 11. Solver 139 (+6) 11. Robert Plomp 139 (+6) 13. siron 137 (+6) 14. Locutus 136 (+6) 15. C0ckney 134 (+6) 15. Darth_Pugwash 134 (+6) 17. Kitschum 129 (+6) 18. joncha 127 (+6) 19. BirraImperial 124 19. Wernazuma III 124 19. Bantams 124 (+6) 22. Echse 123 (+6) 22. OneFootInTheGrave 123 22. Serb 123 (+6) 25. Weik 122 25. MikeH 122 (+6) 27. Red Door 119 (+6) 28. Maquiladora 116 28. sonorakitch 116 30. Victor Galis 114 (+6) 31. classical_hero 113 (+6) 32. Zoid 110 33. OzzyKP 82 (+6) 34. Dudemeister 58 35. Proviisori 52 36. Infantry#14 45 37. Rashiminos 32 38. El_Cid 31 (+6) 39. Dragonlord 5 40. Barnabas 0
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