Euro 2008 Prediction Competition

[Locutus]

It's that time again: the regular season is over, the streets are being decorated all over Europe (well, all over the Netherlands anyway, don't know if footie fans in other countries are crazy enough to paint entire streets in the colour of their national team), football players and fans are starting to descend on Austria and Switzerland... We're only 2 weeks away from the European Championship Football 2008, the Alpine edition.

As is traditional for these major tournaments, we will have a prediction competition here on Apolyton to see who can best predict the outcomes of the matches and the new European Champion. Even if you're from England or Serbia or some other country that failed to qualify, or not from Europe at all, this'll give you a bit more investment in the tournament and a chance to prove you know more about football than Steve McClaren, or more than your fellow polytubbies anyway


The rules are as follows (if you want to suggest any changes, there's still time to discuss that):

Things to Predict
1) The European Champion.
2) The top scorer in the tournament.
3) The 4 group winners in the first round.
4) The 4 teams finishing second in their group in the first round.
5) The scores for each match.

Scoring System
1) 10pts for predicting the European Champion, 3pts if they are runner-up.
2) 10pts for predicting the tournament top scorer, 3pts if they are runner-up.

3) 5pts for predicting the winners of each group. 2pts if they actually place second.
4) 5pts for predicting the second placed teams in each group. 2pts if they actually place first.

5) For each match, the following number of points is awarded. Format: 2+2 means 2pts if the outcome ('home' win/draw/loss) is correctly predicted + 2 points if the exact score is predicted.
In the group stages: 2+2
In the quarter finals: 3+3
In the semi finals: 4+4
In the final: 5+5

Other Rules
- Predictions can be made or changed up to 5 minutes before kick off.
- Predictions for champion, top scorer and group winners can be made or changed up to 5 minutes before kick off of the opening match.
- Addendum: Predictions for group winners can be made or changed up to 5 minutes before kick off of the opening match of the group in question.
- Addendum: Predictions for champion and top scorer can be made or changed up to 5 minutes before kick off of the opening match of the tournament. If no prediction is made before this deadline, it can still be made during the tournament, providing the team in question (or the team to which the player in question belongs) is one that hasn't played its first match yet.
- If you wish to change your prediction do so in a new post.
- Changing predictions could potentially lead to abuse by people editing their posts -- therefore it is advised that you do not edit any posts in which you make predictions.
- The result used is the result after 90 minutes (+ injury time) -- extra time and penalty shoot-outs do not count.
- In the group stage, should lots need to be drawn for placing teams, the final placings are the placing as per the draw of lots.
- The top scorer is the player or players who score the most goals as tracked by UEFA, which includes goals scored during extra time but does not include goals scored during penalty shoot-outs.

Note: two rule changes made on June 8 (marked as "addendum" above) to allow latecomers a reasonable chance to compete.

[Locutus]

The groups

Group A:
Czech Republic
Portugal
Switzerland
Turkey

Group B:
Austria
Croatia
Germany
Poland

Group C:
France
Italy
Netherlands
Romania

Group D:
Greece
Spain
Russia
Sweden


Match schedule (for the group phase)

Switzerland vs Czech Republic
Portugal vs Turkey
Austria vs Croatia
Germany vs Poland
Romania vs France
Netherlands vs Italy
Spain vs Russia
Greece vs Sweden

Czech Republic vs Portugal
Switzerland vs Turkey
Croatia vs Germany
Austria vs Poland
Italy vs Romania
Netherlands vs France
Sweden vs Spain
Greece vs Russia

Switzerland vs Portugal
Turkey vs Czech Republic
Poland vs Croatia
Austria vs Germany
Netherlands vs Romania
France vs Italy
Greece vs Spain
Russia vs Sweden

There's still two weeks to go, so you have some time, but be sure to get those predictions in in time!

[LordShiva]

I predict that I will win teh game

[Dauphin]

Locutus, do you want a copy of the old excel file that does all the calculations and rankings automatically, or do you have it already?

[Dauphin]

.

[Maquiladora]

I've got my predictions down, just gonna wait a week or so for any unexpected injuries etc.

[Locutus]

Originally posted by Dauphin
Locutus, do you want a copy of the old excel file that does all the calculations and rankings automatically, or do you have it already?

Thanks for setting that up Unfortunately, I already made my own from scratch (in part because I didn't have Paul's file, in part because I always found it a bit of a pain to use anyway, effective as it might have been -- horizontal scrolling )

Of course, the main risk of that is that I might've screwed up a few details which might lead to inaccuracies in the ranking, so since you already did the work as well I will at least test them side-by-side, see how mine holds up.

Originally posted by Maquiladora
I've got my predictions down, just gonna wait a week or so for any unexpected injuries etc.

Yeah, my predictions are pending the final friendlies and injury reports as well, I expect that might be the case for many.


Oh, and just to clarify for all (got an IM over this), the predictions for champion/top scorer and group winners have to be in before the start of the opening match. Will update the OP to add that to the rules.

[Solver]

Babel has now been ruled out for the competition. I may actually doubt that the Dutch would qualify for the quarters now

[Locutus]

Babel wouldn't get any playing time anyway as long as Robben is healthy. Of course, that's a BIG assumption, but as long as Robben's healthy for the match against France that shouldn't affect our chances to get to the quarters too much.

It's really Robben and Van Persie you have to look out for health-wise -- those guys are irreplaceable in the system Van Basten plans to employ. And our defensive line is quite thin too, which is why I expect Van Basten will replace Babel with a defender (probably Boulahrouz).

[Solver]

And now Vieira picks up an injury, are you and the French having some competition? Robben being healthy is indeed quite an assumption, and your defense is hopeless anyway

[Solver]

Now De Cler sprains his leg. He's a reserve player but still, what's going on there?

[Krill]

If Germany do their normal thing I think they could win it this time. No really strong sides in the competition, especially now the french are starting to get injured...

[Locutus]

Originally posted by Solver
Now De Cler sprains his leg. He's a reserve player but still, what's going on there?

That's old news and not a serious injury, he should be fine. I was right about Boulahrouz replacing Babel though.

Most Dutch players (and many for the other teams for that matter) have had a very long season (often ~50 games) and are tired, that makes everyone more susceptible to injuries. I think we'll see a few more of those reports in the next week and of course during Euro 2008, from many different teams.

Partially because of this I actually expect Boulahrouz to become a major player for the Dutch now, exactly because he hasn't played too many games this season due to a severe injury, so he's ironically probably the fittest player in the Dutch selection right now. And as by a long stretch the best Dutch defender his presence give our defense a significant boost (providing he is indeed as fit as I believe him to be).

[Solver]

Probably everyone except the Russians has had a long season, and they also managed to lose their best striker, who's now a big doubt.

[Locutus]

Originally posted by Krill
If Germany do their normal thing I think they could win it this time. No really strong sides in the competition, especially now the french are starting to get injured...

I agree, Germany have to be one of the favourites. They always are, but now even more so, they've been extremely impressive ever since the kickoff of WC06. I (sadly) think Italy will be the team to beat though, not France (as much as France is also looking pretty good, providing they stay healthy).

Originally posted by Solver
Probably everyone except the Russians has had a long season, and they also managed to lose their best striker, who's now a big doubt.

Everyone but the somewhat 'smaller' countries like Greece, Poland, Switzerland and indeed Russia that don't have a lot of players playing for the last-16 CL/UEFA Cup teams and who's national competitions don't have more than 30 games. With modern football being what it is, I wouldn't be completely shocked if over the next couple of tournaments we see one or more surprise wins a la Greece (in fact, if anyone's gonna pull it off this year my money's on the Russians -- it's all about the coaching).

[Solver]

Russian's don't just have a 30-game league season. And Zenit has more players than anyone else in their team, and they just had the UEFA cup - but, the Russian season actually started recently, their league is played from March to November, unlike most, so they've played even less games than other countries with small leagues.

[Hueij]

My first prediction is that The Netherlands will be out of the tournament after playing only three games. Do I get any points for this?

[Locutus]

No, that doesn't take any skill to predict, so what would be the point in rewarding it?

[Maquiladora]

Cannavaro is out of the tournament...

http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport2/hi/foot...ly/7432512.stm

[LordShiva]

Del Piero will pwn, though

Do we post our predictions in this threadi?

[Dauphin]

I'd recommend starting a thread in the main OT to redirect those that may participate but avoid the sports subforum.

[Solver]

Originally posted by Maquiladora
Cannavaro is out of the tournament...

http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport2/hi/foot...ly/7432512.stm

Sad

Russia also lost Pogrebniak, the only forward on the squad who's been in any kind of shape recently. This seriously dents their chances of scoring an upset.

[Locutus]

Originally posted by LordShiva
Do we post our predictions in this threadi?

I shall kick things off:

Champion: Germany
Top Scorer: Miroslav Klose

Group A
1. Czech Republic
2. Portugal

Group B
1. Germany
2. Croatia

Group C
1. Italy
2. France

Group D
1. Spain
2. Russia

Switzerland vs Czech Republic 1-3
Portugal vs Turkey 2-0

Austria vs Croatia 0-2
Germany vs Poland 2-0

Romania vs France 1-2
Netherlands vs Italy 1-3

Spain vs Russia 1-1
Greece vs Sweden 0-2

[LordShiva]

Champion: Italy
Top Scorer: Del Piero

Group A
1. Portugal
2. Czech Republic

Group B
1. Germany
2. Croatia

Group C
1. Italy
2. France

Group D
1. Spain
2. Russia

Switzerland vs Czech Republic 0-2
Portugal vs Turkey 1-0

Austria vs Croatia 0-2
Germany vs Poland 2-0

Romania vs France 0-1
Netherlands vs Italy 0-1

Spain vs Russia 1-1
Greece vs Sweden 0-2

[Maquiladora]

Champion: Germany

Top scorer: Klose

Group A
1. Portugal
2. Switzerland

Group B
1. Germany
2. Croatia

Group C
1. Italy
2. Netherlands

Group D
1. Spain
2. Russia

Switzerland vs Czech Republic 1-1
Portugal vs Turkey 1-0

Austria vs Croatia 0-2
Germany vs Poland 1-0

Romania vs France 1-3
Netherlands vs Italy 0-0

Spain vs Russia 2-1
Greece vs Sweden 0-0

[Solver]

Champion: Portugal

Top scorer: Cristiano Ronaldo

Group A.

1. Portugal.
2. Czech Republic.

Group B.

1. Germany
2. Croatia

Group C.

1. Italy
2. Netherlands

Group D.

1. Spain
2. Sweden


to all of you predicting Klose, he's a very overrated striker.

A few days ago I'd have predicted Russia for group D, but recent news from their camp are all bad.

[Locutus]

Originally posted by Solver
to all of you predicting Klose, he's a very overrated striker.

He's always high up on the top scorers list on major tournaments, so he's good enough

A few days ago I'd have predicted Russia for group D, but recent news from their camp are all bad.

Yeah, I had them as group winners last week. Easy group though, they still have a good shot.

[Locutus]

Originally posted by Dauphin
I'd recommend starting a thread in the main OT to redirect those that may participate but avoid the sports subforum.

I concur

[Ecthy]

Champion: Portugal

Top scorer: Klose

Group A
1. Portugal
2. Czech Republic

Group B
1. Croatia
2. Germany

Group C
1. Italy
2. France

Group D
1. Spain
2. Sweden

Switzerland vs Czech Republic 0-2
Portugal vs Turkey 3-0

Austria vs Croatia 0-2
Germany vs Poland 3-0

Romania vs France 1-3
Netherlands vs Italy 0-2

Spain vs Russia 4-0
Greece vs Sweden 1-3 [/QUOTE]

[OneFootInTheGrave]

I am going for what I want and not really what I think will happen

Champion: Croatia
Top Scorer: Ivan Klasnic (hoping for Lance Amstrong effect there... and he scored 6 goals in 12 games since he came back in Bundesliga)

Group A
1. Portugal
2. Switzerland

Group B
1. Germany
2. Croatia

Group C
1. Netherlands
2. Romania

Group D
1. Sweden
2. Russia

Switzerland vs Czech Republic 1-2
Portugal vs Turkey 1-1

Austria vs Croatia 0-1
Germany vs Poland 2-1

Romania vs France 1-1
Netherlands vs Italy 1-1

Spain vs Russia 0-1
Greece vs Sweden 0-1 [/QUOTE]