College Football '10 - Conference switching chaos!!

[Drake Tungsten]

I only use numbers when they're needed to support my argument. You apparently just throw them out there and think they constitute an argument on their own.

[Ming]

I only use numbers when they're needed to support my argument. You apparently just throw them out there and think they constitute an argument on their own.

Yeah... for the rare times that you can find numbers to support your argument, you use them... Otherwise, you just insult people and think that that's proof, and then continue to make crap up.

[ColdWizard]

How many bowl games next season? 35?

[Drake Tungsten]

Imperial Star Destroyer Conference (Notre Dame, Rutgers, Syracuse, Nebraska and Kansas)

The more I look at this hypothetical conference, the more I like it. Rutgers and Syracuse provide a concrete base of households to the East, but Nebraska and Kansas provide the national brand names to the West. This type of expansion is less about pure market grabs and more about making the Big Ten Network into a true national property. A football conference with Michigan, Ohio State, Penn State, Notre Dame and Nebraska going at each other in the fall? A basketball conference with Kansas, Michigan State, Syracuse, Indiana (assuming that the Hoosiers will be resurrected at some point) and Illinois going at each other in the winter? That’s extremely enticing from a national perspective.

http://frankthetank.wordpress.com/2010/04/06/big-sweet-sixteen/

I could live with that.

[Ben Kenobi]

Are there any good teams in that conference? I guess if you get enough ****ty teams together you pile up some talent.

[rah]

0/10

[Drake Tungsten]

The Big Ten adds Nebraska and Syracuse, in order to pressure Texas, Texas A&M and Notre Dame to join later? Interesting idea...

In summary, the Big Ten can announce that it’s inviting Syracuse and Nebraska, both of whom I believe the conference likes regardless of who else might be added. The effect of this is even more panic in the college sports world since 2 BCS conferences will have lost key members and it’s clear that the Big Ten is going to want to add at least 1 more school (or maybe 3). This causes the Big East to split up simply for self-preservation (which would drive Notre Dame to the Big Ten) and the Big XII’s power schools would no longer have veto power to avoid changes to its revenue distribution model (which would drive Texas and Texas A&M to the Big Ten). We would then have a Super Death Star Conference (the one that the Empire attempted to build in Return of the Jedi): Notre Dame, Texas, Texas A&M, Syracuse and Nebraska as new members of a 16-school Big Ten.

Now, what if the desired fallout doesn’t go as planned for the Big Ten, where Notre Dame and/or the Texas schools stay put? (In the words of future Ole Miss mascot Admiral Ackbar, “It’s a trap!!!”) This is not really a problem because the Big Ten has already added a huge national football name (Nebraska) and a marquee basketball school that happens to be the only BCS school in the state of New York (Syracuse). The Big Ten would then invite Rutgers as school #14, which gets the conference to stake its geographic claim to the New York/New Jersey area. As a result, the Big Ten has increased its national cache for both football and basketball while adding on concrete households in the form of a major presence in the nation’s largest TV market. (This is “JoePa’s Quasi-Dream Conference” that I wrote about here.) Adding Syracuse and Nebraska as schools #12 and #13 allows the Big Ten to disrupt the current comfort zones of Notre Dame and Texas and applies serious pressure on them to join the Big Ten themselves, but also provides a hedge in the event that those major players aren’t persuaded at the end.

I’ve stated before that Nebraska would be the one school that could make me eat my words that the Big Ten wouldn’t expand without Notre Dame or Texas involved. Frankly, JoePa’s Quasi-Dream Conference is a pretty good outcome for everyone associated with the Big Ten. The sports fans get great national programs in football and basketball (plus major upgrades in other sports with Nebraska baseball and women’s volleyball and Syracuse lacrosse). The academically-minded people maintain a conference entirely composed of members of the American Association of Universities. The traditionalists get a geographically contiguous conference that “conservatively” adds on to both sides of the league footprint. The TV executives get another marquee football name for national TV contracts and entry into the New York/New Jersey area for Big Ten Network households. Maybe most importantly, these are all schools that seem to actually WANT to be in the Big Ten (as opposed to feeling forced to join). This can maintain the close-knit atmosphere that I believe is the Big Ten’s greatest qualitative strength.

That would be my maniacal multi-phase expansion plan if the Big Ten is truly looking to move up to at least 14 schools – go for the proverbial royal flush in a way where the conference is still guaranteed to be the chip leader no matter what happens.

http://frankthetank.wordpress.com/2010/04/12/multi-phase-big-ten-expansion-how-to-create-a-super-death-star-conference/

[Guynemer]

I'm in; where do I sign up?

[Drake Tungsten]

Ndamukong Suh is a ****ing stud.

http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=5073955

[Guynemer]

Too bad the Lions are going to ruin the **** out of his career.

[Lord Avalon]

Too bad the Lions are going to ruin the **** out of his career.

Not necessarily - he might leave and have success elsewhere.

[SlowwHand]

Charles Davis of NFL.com has projected that the Lions will take Russell Okung, OT, Oklahoma State.
Good chance.

[Drake Tungsten]

Too bad the Lions are going to ruin the **** out of his career.

Tell me about it. I'm so sad for him...

[Ming]

Another view...

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/375235-jim-delaney-size-12-or-16-footprint

I am not sold on the foregone conclusion that the Big East will get targeted directly by Big Ten expansion. Yes, such a move could put pressure on Notre Dame to find a new all-sports home and the Big Ten would be in a prime spot to land them.

The current members of the Big East just are not strong enough to offer up multiple candidates. Pitt is a great fit for membership, academics, and athletics but that is it. Not markets, not additional revenue.

When the Atlantic Coastal Conference expanded in 2004 and 2005 they did not even invite Pitt, West Virginia, or even Rutgers; so why would the Big Ten?

The rumors and posturing going on at the top of the NCAA food chain indicate either "no change" or "seismic change". I'm sorry, finishing off the Big East as a football conference isn't exactly "seismic," certainly significant, but not "seismic." Killing off the Big East football conference would not result in any other major conference changes.

Seismic change among NCAA Division I-FBS conferences would mean either the Big Ten goes after Big 12 or ACC programs. The Big 12 offering, outside of Texas, will neither meet the university president's academic resume, nor bring large enough revenue potential due to small markets. If you could take Nebraska's fan loyalty and football prestige, add in Kansas' basketball, throw in Colorado's academics and TV market, and place them close enough to the current footprint then it might make sense to add multiple Big 12 teams (alongside ho-hum Missouri). Too many fantasy scenarios there to be feasible.

That leaves the ACC programs.

For academics, markets, and overall sports programs the Big Ten cannot do any better than Maryland, Virginia, North Carolina, and Duke. UNC, Duke, and Virginia were all opposed to the recent ACC expansion and consider themselves academic superiors in the same mold as the Big Ten members. Virginia had to have their arm twisted by the former Governor to go along with the plan so that the Hokies didn't get left in what was feared to be a Big East wasteland. Maryland would certainly come along if those three schools were all leaving the ACC.

All of those four schools pride themselves academically, as well as having great all-around athletic programs, but none of them would leave by themselves. It would be a packaged deal, and a tremendous package is what Jim Delany and the Big Ten would get. The four programs would collectively RAISE the academic profile of the Big Ten considerably.

Duke is the reigning men's basketball champion, one of the biggest names in college hoops, and a school that placed 17th in the last NACDA Director's Cup. While their football program has known better days, they would provide a peer for current Big Ten member Northwestern. Academically, the Blue Devils rank either 10th (US News and World Report) or 23rd (Academic Ranking of World Universities—US). They command an endowment of $4.4 billion (would rank them fourth in the Big Ten), are AAU members, and have a top-ranked library with over six million volumes.

Virginia is one of the nation's most prestigious academic public universities, and fields a great overall athletic department that ranked eighth in the NACDA Director's Cup. The Cavaliers draw 50,000 fans for football and over 10,000 for basketball games. The AAU member school presides over a $3.6 billion endowment, and rank 24th (USNWR) and 51st (ARWU) academically. Their library exceeds 5.5 million volumes and they are in the nation's top schools for annual research, especially from their medical school.

North Carolina is one of the premiere basketball programs in the nation and was recently named by Forbes magazine as the most valuable basketball program in the NCAA. Their football team draws 57,000 fans per game, and the Tar Heels hoops team brings in 21,000 per game. The entire athletic department ranked second behind Stanford in the NACDA Director's Cup. Academically, UNC owns a $2.4 billion endowment, ranked 28th (USNWR) and 30th (ARWU) while their library has over 6.5 million volumes, and it conducted over $700 million in research in 2009.

While Maryland doesn't rank nearly as high in any of those metrics as the above schools, it still is a strong university. Ranked 53 (USNWR) and 28th (ARWU), the Terrapins own a $600 million endowment, they are also AAU members. With the 28th ranked athletic department according to NACDA Director's Cup, they draw over 17,000 to basketball games and a respectable 45,000 for football.

For reference, the lowest ranked Big Ten school from USNWR is Iowa, Michigan State, and Indiana, tied at 71st. In the ARWU it is Iowa at 63rd. The school with the lowest endowment is Iowa with $770 million. Indiana ranked the lowest in the NACDA Director's Cup at 55th.

So, academically we know that the current Big Ten school presidents and chancellors would be thrilled to accept this grouping. That can't be said for any Big 12 candidate except for the logistically-challenged Texas Longhorns and equally distant Texas A&M Aggies.

The presidents and chancellors of the Big Ten and the Council of Presidents/Chancellors will consider the academic criteria as the primary basis for their decision before they consider athletics and athletically-related revenue growth. There is no point in making compromises on this issue, academics research among the CIC members dwarf what the Big Ten makes in TV contracts and bowl distributions.

However, TV markets do matter once the academic hurdle has been passed.

UNC and Duke are the two biggest programs in the state of North Carolina, which contains several very large metro areas that deliver over 3.4 million TV households (Charlotte, Raleigh-Durham, Greensboro, and Greenville).

Virginia is located in a state with an average population, but several large metro areas as well in Richmond, Norfolk, and Roanoke leading the way. The 1.9 million TV households in the state are not all locked into watching Cavaliers sports, as they share that with Virginia Tech and others, but Blacksburg is far from the major population centers.

One of the bigger carrots that the University of Virginia can help deliver is Washington D.C. and its 2.3 million TV households. Combined with the addition of Maryland, the college sports market in our nations capitol would be open to Big Ten sports. Along with Baltimore's 1.1 million TV households, the Terrapins more than pull their weight when it comes to access to markets.

The combined market size of these schools would be 8.7 million TV households, with a much greater market penetration for cable carriers and ratings than any options from Big East members or non-Texas Big 12 targets.

This would improve an already-strong basketball conference in a time that could see the postseason tournament (and paydays) create more access to the bigger conferences. The lackluster Big Ten baseball league would at least be relevant with an elite program like Virginia and another top-notch squad like North Carolina.

Bringing elite academic credentials, significant television markets, and very solid overall athletic programs (while also not threatening the Wolverines, Buckeyes, and Nittany Lions football dominance), these four founding fathers of the ACC would be the feathers in Delaney's cap in his master expansion plan, right?

But wait, it gets better!

Now, the ACC is significantly weaker but still an extremely valuable conference that has solid basketball programs but retains the best football playing members in Florida State, Miami, Clemson, Georgia Tech, and Virginia Tech. Those schools know that football and football alone is their meal ticket.

Academics are important but not at the expense of good football at those schools. Needing to expand with at least four more teams will force the remaining ACC members to caste covetous looks at the still vulnerable Big East lineup.

West Virginia, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Rutgers, Connecticut, and Louisville would all be great matches with the Seminoles, Hurricanes, Yellow Jackets, Tigers, Demon Deacons, Wolfpack, Hokies, and Eagles. In fact, many of those teams have been in conferences together over the years so there is built-in rivalries ready to re-emerge. If a 16-team super-conference is something they desire then South Florida, Cincinnati, and East Carolina would all be solid and probable candidates to review.

Such a conference would actually GAIN in prestige in football without losing any of their basketball power as well. While Duke and North Carolina are certainly irreplaceable, West Virginia, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, UConn, and Louisville more than make up for the total loss. Market-wise the ACC actually gains strength as well because the footprint isn't so centered on the State of North Carolina, but more diverse and includes a bigger northeast presence.

Expanding into Maryland, Virginia, and North Carolina would add close nine million TV households that are not currently in the Big Ten Network fold. Currently the Big Ten directly covers over 26 million TV households, for an average of about 2.5 million per school. The four members of the expansion plan would average 2.2 million per school, so they are certainly comparable in this criteria. The same cannot be said for Nebraska (700,000 or Kansas (approx 1.1 million). Missouri, while having a large TV market (2.5 million approx), is diluted by the fact that major cable carriers already have added the Big Ten Network on expanded-basic cable in St. Louis.

So, these schools pass the academic test, the athletics test, and the markets test. Those are "home-run" candidates for the Big Ten all by themselves. Now, an even bigger motivation for the Big Ten to tip over these big dominoes is to get the biggest domino of them all to fall...

Notre Dame.

The Big East football conference would now cease to exist. Notre Dame could certainly remain in the non-football Big East alignment with the small private Catholic universities. However, the loss of the elite flagship schools would also severely damage the television contract and prestige of the surviving conference and impair Notre Dame's value to remain.

With the current Big Ten membership plus Maryland, Virginia, North Carolina, and Duke the Fighting Irish would certainly be the icing on the cake for Jim Delany. The Irish can deliver more of the coveted NYC TV market than any other program, in addition to strong ratings in nearly every relevant market for the Big Ten Network.

The Irish would now be joining a conference that is much more than "just a Midwestern" conference. This would be a truly national power conference for a national team. The offer this time around would be a last chance final offer for the Irish.

If Jack Swarbrick or Reverend Jenkins decide to remain independent at that juncture, then it would truly be permanent. That would require some serious discussion and soul-searching for the Irish head honchos. Many analysts have misrepresented Notre Dame's TV contract as the information is not public knowledge...credible sources have stated $15 million a year from NBC rather than the $9 million based on popular perception. The gap between potential Big Ten revenues and the status quo would become even bigger however, with the loss of the Big East basketball money.

Putting the pressure on Notre Dame is all the Big Ten could do at this point. If the Irish decide to decline, then the Big Ten would have to move on and get that 16th member. The finalists to fill that spot could be Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Rutgers, Nebraska, or Missouri. None of them are home-run candidates but any of them would fit on many levels, especially Pitt or Syracuse.

Such a move would put pressure on the Pac-10 to raise the prestige of their league and could force the elite Pac-10 members (Stanford, Cal, UCLA, USC, and Washington) to make the hard choices necessary for them to remain as an elite conference. Hints coming from administrators indicate that some type of merger with members of the Big 12 could be on the horizon.

Washington Athletic Director Steve Woodward dropped this buzz-worthy quote when asked about potential Pac-10 expansion: ""It could be two, four or a merger of Big 12. ... There's a theory that at the end of the day there's only going to be four super conferences. Now that it's going to look like, God only knows."

The Big 12 conference finds itself in similar constraints. Several of the Big 12 members feel that the current membership holds the conference back either academically or athletically. Texas and Colorado were close to joining the Pac-10 prior to the Big 12 taking shape as they both wanted to be associated with a higher profile academic conference. The Governor of Missouri has publicly lobbied the Big Ten so that his flagship school can stop being linked with Oklahoma State and Texas Tech.

Texas, Missouri, Kansas, Nebraska, and Colorado have all had different challenges that have the same solution: leave the weaker programs behind.

If the Big 12 and Pac-10 flagship schools can all unite, they can form a national power-house conference that would dominate academically, athletically, and financially by capturing the largest TV markets west of the Mississippi.

A 16-team western super-conference that has divisions based on the former conference alignments could be the solution to all of the members' needs.

Texas, Texas A&M, Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri, Nebraska, and Colorado would be key components in one division. Choosing the remaining member would be a tough choice between Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, Kansas State, Iowa State, Baylor, and possibly Utah or even BYU.

USC, UCLA, Stanford, California, Oregon, Washington, and Arizona would be the anchors of the other division. With a final choice between Arizona State (most likely), Oregon State, and Washington State to reach their eighth member; it certainly would not come easy.

These actions would create much more balanced conferences in like-minded peer institutions that are academically and athletically aligned. Stanford would no longer be "burdened" with an association with Washington State, but would gain a greater cooperation with top-tier research schools like Texas, Texas A&M, and Colorado.

While all of these scenarios are extremely aggressive, do not discount the possibility of such epic and seismic changes to the landscape of college sports. The Darwinian evolution of college conferences mean that all bets are off. Over the course of the last fifty years, tradition has consistently been overcome by large financial gains in conference alignments, this one won't be any different.

The ACC expansion failed. It did not deliver the $12 to $14 million in championship game money, nor did it help the ACC to place multiple teams into the BCS games. While the league saw an significant bump in their original TV carriage contracts they are meeting with lackluster response during their renewal process. Duke and UNC were firm anti-expansion voices throughout that process, and Virginia was politically forced to approve it. None of them wanted to water down their league academically, and now they would have the chance to truly be in a league that "fits" on all levels.

Don't bet on Jim Delany settling for a "satisfactory" solution when there are "elite" options available.

[Drake Tungsten]

Looks like the Big Ten might be announcing its expansion candidates by the end of June...

Accelerated timetable for Big Ten expansion

Remember the talk that the Big Ten would take 12-18 months to decide whether to expand?

An accelerated timetable has emerged, according to sources familiar with the process.

High-ranking Big Ten representatives will meet Sunday afternoon in Washington D.C. to discuss expansion. The timing and location of the session make sense considering the Association of American Universities is holding its semi-annual meetings in D.C. from Sunday-Tuesday, and all 11 Big Ten schools are AAU members.

Among those attending will be Northwestern President Morton Schapiro, according to a university spokesman, and University of Illinois interim chancellor Robert Easter.

If the league can emerge from the D.C. meetings with a mandate to expand, commissioner Jim Delany could take a substantial step next week at the annual BCS meetings, outside Phoenix.

As laid out in the Big Ten's Dec. 15 statement, Delany would "notify" the commissioner(s) of the affected conference(s) before "engaging in formal expansion discussions with other institutions."

In other words, Big East commissioner John Marinatto would get a heads-up if the Big Ten wishes to contact schools such as Rutgers, Pittsburgh and Syracuse.

That would allow the Big Ten more than a month to negotiate with schools before conference presidents and chancellors meet in Chicago during the first weekend in June.

That timetable also makes sense from a financial standpoint. The fiscal years of universities end on the last day of June, "so if you go past July 1, then you have to wait an extra year," said one source.

http://www.chicagobreakingsports.com/2010/04/big-ten-reps-to-talk-expansion-in-dc-on-sunday.html

Please let Nebraska be one of the teams invited.