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[Jon Miller]

Seems like any broadly representative sampling leads to about the same numbers. 0.3% mortality rates, very high transmission rates. Hospital effectiveness fairly low in saving those who visit.

I think, from China, that 0.5% is a reasonable number for a working health system. However, what I haven't seen the case for is that hospital effectiveness is fairly low. China was pretty clear that hospital availability was important.

JM

[-Jrabbit]

Yeah, but that would be inconvenient for KH's LetItHappen narrative.

[Dauphin]

UK Office of National Statistics Data has been released. First glimpse of potential over/undereporting of deaths for the UK:

Week 13 (w/e 27 March):
All deaths 11,141
Pneumonia/flu deaths 2,090
Covid deaths 539
All deaths 5-year average 10,130
Pneumonia/flu deaths 5-year average 1,983

Crude indicator is that there is a deficit of 11,141 - 10,130 - 539 = 472 un-explained variance in deaths. Possibly another 100 pneumonia deaths (non-Covid) could be attributable to Covid to marry up to historical flu related deaths. If born out, that would be half of Covid deaths not reported.

The number of deaths from Covid is now about 6,000, so next week's figures will be more revealing. This week's could well be noise.

[Jon Miller]

Studies like this https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/...0fa101a75bede/ are about ventilators and not about hospitalization.

JM

[BeBMan]

Air pollution is good for the virus:

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/apr/07/air-pollution-linked-to-far-higher-covid-19-death-rates-study-finds

[Proteus_MST]

In Plague Inc., that's always a relief.

Aye ... the islands like Iceland, Madagascar and the Carribbeans always are the hardest to infect and exterminate



In germany we have reason for careful optimism.

Since a little bit more than 2 weeks the newly discovered Corona cases oscillate between 4k and 7k per day (actually yesterday even just 3.2k ... but that may be an effect of less testing during the weekend) . Seems like we have jumped off from the exponentiality train.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/germany/

[Ted Striker]

New Zealand kicking butt with an aggressive quarantine system :

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/new-zealand-isnt-just-flattening-the-curve-its-squashing-it

[MOBIUS]

An estimated additional 180 - 195 deaths per day occurring at home in New York City due to COVID-19 are not being counted in the official figures. "Early on in this crisis we were able to swab people who died at home, and thus got a coronavirus reading. But those days are long gone. We simply don't have the testing capacity for the large numbers dying at home. Now only those few who had a test confirmation *before* dying are marked as victims of coronavirus on their death certificate. This almost certainly means we are undercounting the total number of victims of this pandemic," said Mark Levine, Chair of New York City Council health committee [source]

America under reporting its cases - mass graves in NY parks next...?

sucks to be in the US right now...

[ZEE]

Peter Navarro is one of the smartest men I have evar seen and you can tell just how he feels about his fellow man.

[Ted Striker]

https://twitter.com/TimCarpenterMKE/status/1247550491887714307

These folks are waiting in line to vote today, they're still about 1/3 of a mile away from their polling location.

GREAT ****ING JOB AMERICA

[MOBIUS]

Right on the curve for 8-10 that would put the mortality rate at about 0.3%

new estimates from Italy put the number of symptomatic cases at 5 million - including asymptomatic at 10+ million. Based on polling random people and asking them about symptoms they've had recently.

Based on those estimates, mortality rates at about 0.2%. If you include undercounted deaths, could be double that (0.4%)

Seems like any broadly representative sampling leads to about the same numbers. 0.3٪ mortality rates, very high transmission rates. Hospital effectiveness fairly low in saving those who visit.

It is ridiculous to continue this charade any longer. Let. It. Happen.

Why to you keep ignoring larger and more mature datasets, like South Korea and Taiwan?

[BeBMan]

I'm wondering if it's an outrageous thought to give them "frontline" guys (what would we do without war time refs) an extra reward. That is health folks and other crucial ppl, like police, firefighters. Incl. the poor sods who work in supermarkets and the like to keep us fed, while exposing themselves.

I mean reward from tax payer money, not just friendly applause. But it's probably teh communism.

[Proteus_MST]

I'm wondering if it's an outrageous thought to give them "frontline" guys (what would we do without war time refs) an extra reward. That is health folks and other crucial ppl, like police, firefighters. Incl. the poor sods who work in supermarkets and the like to keep us fed, while exposing themselves.

I mean reward from tax payer money, not just friendly applause. But it's probably teh communism.

Won't happen I guess.

After all the GOP has some kind of fiscal responsiblity.

After the tax break for the rich 2 years ago ... and the 2 trillion $ Corona-Stimulus-Package for the economy
(which, if I understand correctly, Trump is free to give whoever he likes with no oversight),
there just isn't enough money left in the federal coffers to give it to normal people (like health workers)

[Jon Miller]

(which, if I understand correctly, Trump is free to give whoever he likes with no oversight),

Well, the Democrats pushed in some limited oversight, which Trump has indicated that he will ignore (both in a signing statement and by firing the people who were suppose to do said oversight).

The Republicans have signaled (both politicians and voters) that they don't care about that, and the Democrats aren't voting Trump in any case.

I am hoping that Trump and the Republicans have underestimated the true Swing voters, but they are so 'both sides' that the only thing that will get them to decide against Trump would be severe economic/national mismanagement (which might be happening).

JM
(of course, a motivated Democratic base would also do the trick, but they seem to be using voter disenfranchisement to deal with that.)

[Egbert]

America under reporting its cases - mass graves in NY parks next...?

sucks to be in the US right now...

Tut tut Möbius. You should know better than to ask loony tunes such a question.

When he was preaching socialism anything inconvenient was ignored. When he abandoned socialism anything inconvenient was ignored. What do ryou eally expect?

BTW
Animals can get the virus. I hope all your sheep are well.

[Dauphin]

Deaths in NY state, Spain, and Italy are all at about 0.03% of the total population. Anecdotal evidence in Italy, Spain, France and UK suggest half of all deaths from Covid aren't being attributed to Covid. So the percentage may be closer to 0.06% so far.

In San Marino 0.1% of the whole population has died (double to 0.2% if you follow the logic that half of Covid deaths aren't recorded as Covid). Half of tests in SM had come back negative, so working assumption is that less than half the population have had it. The fatality rate in SM can be estimated on these assumptions to be 0.4% as a lower bound. Back of envelope calculation, obvs.