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  • Originally posted by pchang View Post
    Mexico is opening up without doing testing. Looks like they are willing (129 million *.75*.005 =~ 500,000) to deal with 500,000 excess deaths in order to get to herd immunity.
    Can they afford not to?

    People so poor they live hand to mouth must be out looking for income every day. I imagine Mexico would have millions of people do poor they can not stay home even for a few days. People who need that $2 today to eat.

    Comment


    • pchang
      pchang commented
      Editing a comment
      But purposely not testing? This is just pure denial.

  • Most modern jobs aren't actually necessary for anyone's survival but of course society is still based on forcing people to justify their existence before they can have food.

    Comment


    • Indeed. I daresay our economy and society could probably be restructured to eliminate a lot of jobs however that would not suit many businesses.

      The first example that springs to mind is the people that keep calling toask me to chznge over their energy company. Their sales are good for the company and not likely to actually benefit the consumer. I could contact them once instead of them calling me dozens of times over many years.

      Of course the people doing the calling need to eat so it is very easy to understand why they stay in the job.

      Comment


      • -Jrabbit
        -Jrabbit commented
        Editing a comment
        Those people (telemarketers for energy company) could be writing, painting, scultping, or playing music and be contributing just as much to society.

    • 5/14/20 study of mortality rates with focus on New York. Looks to be mostly fact-based and agenda-free.

      https://www.worldometers.info/corona...us-death-rate/
      Apolyton's Grim Reaper 2008, 2010 & 2011
      RIP lest we forget... SG (2) and LaFayette -- Civ2 Succession Games Brothers-in-Arms

      Comment


      • Dauphin
        Dauphin commented
        Editing a comment
        An IFR of 1.4% “feels” too high. It is likely to be too high due to missing the “sick and recently sick and isolating” part of the population, whilst counting the “dead so far” population from the same infection cohort.

      • MOBIUS
        MOBIUS commented
        Editing a comment
        Are you sure that's not just 'KH thinking' on your part, Dauphin?

        This is why I have repeatedly referred to countries such as South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore etc. Even the Diamond Princess is a nice example of 'mature data'...

        Because they have such excellent contact tracing regimes, I'd say it's safe to assume that their CFRs closely mirror their IFRs on a virtually 1:1 basis.

        Taiwan: CFR 1.6%
        South Korea: 2.4%
        Diamond Princess: 1.8%

      • Dauphin
        Dauphin commented
        Editing a comment
        I’m going based on Italian, Spanish and French data, with concordant data from the U.K. and NY state data (excluding CDC). South Korea and Taiwan data sets are much smaller and are much harder to assess the denominator due to lack of antibody testing. Diamond Princess is not demographically representative.

    • Great news for Canada! We are keeping the border with the US closed for non-essential travel. I live in Manitoba, about a 1 hour drive from the North Dakota border. Manitoba has about 1.4 million people. We've had 290 confirmed COVID-19 cases and 7 deaths. North Dakota has about 750,000 people, with 1,900 confirmed COVID-19 cases and 43 deaths. 'Merca!

      Do any of you remember, about a month ago Trump wanted to move US troops to the Canadian border to keep Canadians from sneaking into the US?

      https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/corona...hing-1.4944793
      There's nothing wrong with the dream, my friend, the problem lies with the dreamer.

      Comment


      • BoJo has done such a good job. He's managed to oversee the deaths of 10% of all people who were in UK care homes as of March, in just 2 months. Huzza!
        One day Canada will rule the world, and then we'll all be sorry.

        Comment


        • pchang
          pchang commented
          Editing a comment
          That’s one way to save the NHS.

        • Uncle Sparky
          Uncle Sparky commented
          Editing a comment
          Dauphin - are the UK care homes NHS or privately run?

        • Dauphin
          Dauphin commented
          Editing a comment
          Care homes are privately operated and owned. The issues are 1) NHS support for health care was withdrawn to focus on hospitals, 2) PPE and other logistical needs were effectively blocked as the government diverted and sequestered their equipment for hospitals and 3) The government pushed infected NHS patients into care homes without testing beforehand (assuming the risk was effectively nil, or later on due to alleged negligence)

          The above may not be wholly accurate but is materially the bones of contention in the blame game.

      • Sub-Topic: What is the 'real' CFR/IFR of coronavirus?

        Throughout this thread I have repeatedly referred to countries such as South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore etc. Even the Diamond Princess is a nice example of 'mature data'...

        Because they have such excellent contact tracing regimes, I'd say it's safe to assume that their CFRs closely mirror the actual IFR of COVID-19...

        So, currently these are*

        Taiwan: CFR 1.6%
        South Korea: 2.4%
        Diamond Princess: 1.8%

        *these all still include a significant number of people who haven't yet had an outcome. 48 people are still listed as active cases from the Diamond Princess something like 3-4 months later, for example...

        Discuss...
        Is it me, or is MOBIUS a horrible person?

        Comment


        • I think the final ‘official’ IFR quoted by the WhO or similar bodies will be 0.6% for a Western European demographic with uniform infection across the demographic, and a more accurate caveated rate will be about 0.8-0.9% because of under reporting deaths.

          Younger demographic nations will have a lower IFR. Older, higher.

          my 2 cents.
          One day Canada will rule the world, and then we'll all be sorry.

          Comment


          • Matt Hancock has thrown some odd numbers out today. He announced 5% of the UK (or maybe England, or maybe one of those excluding London, he was ambiguous) have had Covid, and 17% of Londoners. These numbers don't seem to make sense to me. Official stats up until his announcement were that there were around 36,000 deaths across the UK (population 65 million), and around 6,000 in London (population 8.9 million). Plug in the above ratios and you get a crude IFR of 0.4% for London, and either 0.8% or 1.1% for the UK as a whole, and either 1.1% or 1.7% for the UK excluding London.
            Last edited by Dauphin; May 21, 2020, 19:41.
            One day Canada will rule the world, and then we'll all be sorry.

            Comment


            • Much larger retrospective (96,000) on chloroquine shows no benefit and perhaps worse outcome. Trump is so stubborn he will probably up his dose.
              It's never too late to shut the **** up and hope for the best. - Kentonio
              If social security were private, it would be prosecuted as a Ponzi scheme. - me
              Check out https://shauchi.wixsite.com/fire

              Comment


              • Provost Harrison
                Provost Harrison commented
                Editing a comment
                Hopefully he'll enhance it with some strychnine

            • He announced yesterday that his "regimen" was coming to an end in the next day or two.
              Apolyton's Grim Reaper 2008, 2010 & 2011
              RIP lest we forget... SG (2) and LaFayette -- Civ2 Succession Games Brothers-in-Arms

              Comment


              • He is so blatantly lying or being lied to about the concept of a regimen, I wonder if his physicians are giving him placebo gummy bears and telling him they are medicine.
                One day Canada will rule the world, and then we'll all be sorry.

                Comment


                • WHO announces a suspension of chloroquine studies. Surely, Trump would be weak to stop taking it now.
                  It's never too late to shut the **** up and hope for the best. - Kentonio
                  If social security were private, it would be prosecuted as a Ponzi scheme. - me
                  Check out https://shauchi.wixsite.com/fire

                  Comment


                  • The last thing Oerdin said was amazing. I could not have said it better myself.
                    להזמין ש‬ל הזבוב, Trained by Ba'al.
                    Giuliani/Lindell 2024.

                    Comment


                    • I did a lot of scientific research on youtube and the intarweb in general and came to the conclusion that John Hopkins University is really behind the virus. How else could they have so much inside knowledge???
                      Blah

                      Comment


                      • Uncle Sparky
                        Uncle Sparky commented
                        Editing a comment
                        It came from Area 51. COVID-19 is just tenderizing humanity before the invasion. Obviously.

                      • Uncle Sparky
                        Uncle Sparky commented
                        Editing a comment
                        I'm actually surprised that no one has blamed it on 'bat boy'. Since World News closed down, we haven't had informative articles on what the Boy (Boe) family has been up to..
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