Wot no coronavirus thread? Thread broken - see new thread

[Proteus_MST]

...

Sorry, but that's like reducing the annual flu deaths by half, for one year, at the expense of months of everybody else's well being. That's ****ing insane. It's a terrible tradeoff by an order of magnitude or more.

Flu isn't as contagious as noven CoV.
If you get flu, you also are sick enough to spend your time in bed (instead of running around and spreading the disease further).
In contrst to this, ~50% of CoViD-19 positives ae asymptomatic and a large part of the remaining 50% only shos minor symptomes (and therefore many of them will go around and spread the disease)

This problem actually is even bigger in the USA (compared to european countries) due to no paid sick leave, often high co-pays and, in many cases, no health insurance at all. This encourages people to only go to the doctor when they are feel really sick (and therefore to lots of people going to work when they already are contagious)

Actually the "strategy" of the virus (if it ere a thinking being) to spread is almost prfect ... it resembles the strategies I use in Plague nc to spread the germs around the world (before I turn them into something deadly)

Also think about one thing:
The most endangred people in the Corona crisis are the doctors and nurses in the hospitals ... if those get sick you quickly have your whole health system going downhill (and the danger is biggr, the less protective gear they have available)

[KrazyHorse]

You're misunderstanding me - I'm not saying that this is the flu. I'm saying that this is far more infectious than the flu and is somewhat more dangerous to catch.. My point was that preventing 10% of the cumulative deaths associated with this (the best you can hope for) is something like reducing annual flu deaths by half, for one year.

With that context it should be obvious that we shouldn't lock people into their houses for months at a time in order to accomplish that goal.

Not that policymakers or the public are behaving (or will behave) rationally of course. They will maintain the lockdown until people get fed up with being inside and until they become used to the idea that dying of coronavirus doesn't seem somehow more frightening than dying of anything else.

[KrazyHorse]

Happily I live in a region (NYC metro) that is pretty far along the curve to reasonable herd immunity - at a rough guess, 15% of people in this area have been infected (a bit higher in NYC proper, a bit lower in surrounding suburbs). By the time this wave has died down a bit we should have gotten to about 30% infection rates or so - a bit lower than I would have hoped because the various lockdowns have probably managed to delay 10-20% of cases until the fall. After that wave we'll be done with this nonsense, while other regions still have to contend with the bulk of their cases.

The 15% infection number is based on a combination of death numbers and also some circumstantial evidence.

1) of the parents of people I know in the region, about 10% are showing signs heavily consistent with infection. Smallish sample of course.

2) a larger semi-random sampling of people in the 20-65 age range I saw (exact source is somewhat confidential) had about 5% showing symptoms consistent with infection

Grossing both up by the asymptomatic rates in those two age groups gets you to close to 15%, pretty much consistent with the deaths-based approximation.

[Dauphin]

Ive just seen an older (a week old) German antibody study indicates a 0.37% fatality rate.

I’m still confused as to how these studies work if the antibody tests have a low accuracy.

[ZEE]

I disagree with Black Cat.

[KrazyHorse]

Ive just seen an older (a week old) German antibody study indicates a 0.37% fatality rate.

I’m still confused as to how these studies work if the antibody tests have a low accuracy.

Yeah, I mentioned them a few posts above. From what I understand (and this is very loose understanding) there are several antibody tests around, and they can be turned along the specificity / sensitivity spectrum.

FWIW that same German study had 2% active infections - seems reasonably consistent with a region on the downslope of its first wave of infection.

[KrazyHorse]

The Swedes are doing it right. Hanging tough against the germaphobic demands to lock down the country. Just saw an estimate that 40% of Stockholm will be infected by the end of April.

OTOH they also didnt do enough to segregate the elderly - still too much mixing, and infections are picking up in nursing homes.

[KrazyHorse]

Iceland with a 7th death on the last day for which we can reasonably use the ~3500 number of estimated infections from about 15 days ago.

Works out to a 0.2% IFR, with fairly broad error bars on either side (0.1-0.4٪)

[Ted Striker]

Happily I live in a region (NYC metro) that is pretty far along the curve to reasonable herd immunity - at a rough guess, 15% of people in this area have been infected (a bit higher in NYC proper, a bit lower in surrounding suburbs). By the time this wave has died down a bit we should have gotten to about 30% infection rates or so - a bit lower than I would have hoped because the various lockdowns have probably managed to delay 10-20% of cases until the fall. After that wave we'll be done with this nonsense, while other regions still have to contend with the bulk of their cases.

The 15% infection number is based on a combination of death numbers and also some circumstantial evidence.

1) of the parents of people I know in the region, about 10% are showing signs heavily consistent with infection. Smallish sample of course.

2) a larger semi-random sampling of people in the 20-65 age range I saw (exact source is somewhat confidential) had about 5% showing symptoms consistent with infection

Grossing both up by the asymptomatic rates in those two age groups gets you to close to 15%, pretty much consistent with the deaths-based approximation.

The problem with your theory was that it's always been a false choice.

All the money wasted on these bailouts could have gone directly to the people to keep them afloat until the situation had stabilized. They will immediately spend the money on life supporting goods like food and medicine.

Dumbass Fed nearly broke their whole mortgage industry with their last bailout.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/fed-should-pay-every-american-more-let-hedge-funds-and-billionaires-get-wiped-out-says-social-capital-ceo-2020-04-09

The people of your city have no clue how to allocate capital. They just throw it into ever-increasing pools on the side where it gets wasted on retarded efforts like stock buybacks to create even bigger piles of useless capital that never deployed and sit on the sidelines like a rapidly growing tapeworm.

[giblets]

Is it ranging between .1 and .4 or are you saying it could be negative

[Dauphin]

Zombie apocalypse.

[Uncle Sparky]

Damn. I didn't have that starting until September...

[Dauphin]

USS Theo Roosevelt, almost all tested. 416 positive of which 229 asymptomatic, 1 hospitalised to ICU.

[KrazyHorse]

Is that service members? Skews young probably not as young as the army

[KrazyHorse]

Average age usn looks to be about 30. So there are probably some people aboard in their 50s, not much above that

[ricketyclik]

For those doing statistical analysis, our (Australia's) public broadcaster has been running a continually updated set of stats which may be of interest. Being an island, we've had fairly successful containment, with the single biggest increase in infections coming from a couple of thousand passengers from a cruise ship with a high infection rate being allowed to disembark untested/not quarantined.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-17/coronavirus-cases-data-reveals-how-covid-19-spreads-in-australia/12060704