Wot no coronavirus thread? Thread broken - see new thread

[Elok]

JM, I'm sorry, but that's not remotely like what you're claiming it shows. CFR is the CASE fatality rate, so it's describing what percentage of all known cases in the given population who die, including people who never come close to needing the ICU. It's necessarily going to be much lower than the ICU death rate.

[Jon Miller]

JM, I'm sorry, but that's not remotely like what you're claiming it shows. CFR is the CASE fatality rate, so it's describing what percentage of all known cases in the given population who die, including people who never come close to needing the ICU. It's necessarily going to be much lower than the ICU death rate.

The table is showing percentages from the total (And note that as the case).

So while yes, some people will die that never go to ICU (According to the linked table/study/figures, this is particularly true for people above the age of 85), it means that the ICU death rate is even lower than what I presented the upper bound as being.

JM

[KrazyHorse]

Look at the Table.

Here the first column is Total, second is Hospitalization (Lower/Upper Bound), third is ICU (Lower/Upper Bound) and fourth is death (Lower/Upper Bound) all in %:
Total: 2449
Hospitalization: 20.7-31.4%
ICU: 4.9-11.5%
Death: 1.8-3.4% JM

Don't know whether elok's claim is correct, but not all ICU patients go on ventilation, right? So you could both be correct.

[Elok]

So you're extrapolating by doing division with a set of enormously broad ranges on a preliminary data set?

The findings in this report are subject to at least five limitations. First, data were missing for key variables of interest. Data on age and outcomes, including hospitalization, ICU admission, and death, were missing for 9%–53% of cases, which likely resulted in an underestimation of these outcomes.

Admittedly, I just have one item in a pretty convincing report alleged to be from a physician on my side, but this does not strike me as good data.

[Jon Miller]

The missing data is part of where the bounds come from. I showed that even if you take the most extreme view of the missing data that you can sorta make it look like what you claimed, but that this doesn't make sense (statistically) and doesn't make sense when looking at the age breakdown.

It also doesn't fit all reports from the US/Italy/China, which is why I spent the 5 minutes looking up the CDC report.

I am not saying that you got told about a fake report. I am saying that it was a bad study.

JM

[Jon Miller]

Don't know whether elok's claim is correct, but not all ICU patients go on ventilation, right? So you could both be correct.

That is true, but reports from China and Italy were that ventilation and extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (That was China) were productive (particularly for younger people, where younger could even mean younger than 85). That wouldn't fit the age breakdown of cases (if the report Elok referred to was correct) or the report that Elok referred to (period).

JM

[Dinner]

Italy and Spain are also saying that if a patient sits upright while on ventilation that improves outcomes vs laying flat on their back. The guess is excess mucus pools at the bottom of the lungs instead of all over the lungs thus why sitting upright improves odds. Gravity helps drain excess fluid thus keeping some lung capacity functional.

[Uncle Sparky]

Question - since America seems to be winning, having the highest total cases, can we rename it the American Flu, or maybe even the Trump Flu?

[Ted Striker]

Question - since America seems to be winning, having the highest total cases, can we rename it the American Flu, or maybe even the Trump Flu?

The Trump Easter Flu

If he really fills all those churches, part 2 of this is going to really suck.

OR

It spreads the pain from the cities and to the heartland where I am guessing (have no stats to back it up without looking), large religious gatherings are going to be more common.

They'll still vote for him after infecting themselves and blame it on Hillary

[Elok]

Don't know whether elok's claim is correct, but not all ICU patients go on ventilation, right? So you could both be correct.

From what I'm hearing, the prevailing practice is to give COVID patients one of two oxygenation therapies: a low-flow nasal cannula, typical for patients in the ordinary hospital, and then ventilation if that's not enough, because every step in between produces contaminating aerosols and there's a PPE shortage. So ICU probably does mean vents in this instance.

I didn't understand what JM was implying at first; I get it now, but I think it's a low-value data set to be drawing inferences from. I'm sure he knows stats better than I do, but ... it just looks messy, and cluttered with unknowns.

EDIT: Massive Xpost because I stopped to do bedtime stories in the middle. I'll yield to JM's greater experience in statistics here, but with the proviso that what I'm hearing from RTs paints a considerably grimmer picture.

[Dinner]

I have also heard making use of a CPAP machine may help improve respiration if a ventilator is not available. It is probably no better than oxygen or maybe even worse but it does supply some positive ventilation.

[Ted Striker]

Hay guyz !

Look who’s behind all these lame talking points all the drones are mindlessly repeating of getting everyone back to work as soon as possible? Meanwhile they decide to work from home?

That’s right, the living C ock Brother!

Oh it gets better! Who also lobbied to defund the CDC? You betcha !

I know you guys are just as surprised as I am.

https://theintercept.com/2020/03/26/americans-for-prosperity-cdc-coronavirus/

p.s. his dad was a Nazi sympathizer, even more surprising.

[Dinner]

Arizona Man Dies After Trying Substance Touted by Trump to Treat COVID-19

https://www.phoenixnewtimes.com/news...tical-11460391

Trump getting his own stupid supporters to kill themselves, what a hero

You're a dumb ass. No one said chloroquine phosphate much less aquarium tank cleaner. You're about as dumb as the ****** who drank draino.

[giblets]

Dinner I don't know why you're running defense for Trump supporters (besides the fact that you are one) but this is something that actually happened.

https://twitter.com/VaughnHillyard/s...58629278875648

NBC: Did you see the President's press conference? Where did you hear about--

Patient: Yeah. Yeah, we saw his press conference. It was on a lot, actually.

NBC: And then did you did you seek out Chloroquine?

Patient: I had it in the house because I used to have koi fish.

[BeBMan]

Merkel self-isolated but so far negative. Boris isolating now too, with "mild symptoms". Otoh Putin has gotten the virus to isolate from him or somesuch.

Just saying. No link since I'm lazy

[Jon Miller]

Here are some discussions from 538. One thing is that they place the no-mitigation US deaths closer to 2 million, and also give a significantly higher valuation of life (including of elderly life) at 6-10 million.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...o-save-a-life/

They refer to the multiplier but do not try to estimate it.

I should point out that I do think that at some point one does have to think about the margin (quality of life, cost of life, etc). Obviously we could go into a Wuhan style lockdown, but currently I do not support that... I think that the Shelter in Place does enough for the cost and that the increased cost of a Wuhan style lockdown (economic, social, mental, physical and civil) are not worth the additional lives saved from Covid19. I haven't developed a quantitative narrative for that yet though, and I would imagine the difference between a national Lockdown and the current mixture of Mitigation/Shelter in Place is probably more than 100k lives.

JM

[KrazyHorse]

The people at 538 are not generally very good at analytics outside of elections. I don't know why you would quote them. They're using the massively inflated naive cfr rates and applying them to the US population as a whole.