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  • I've been trying to tell you that, because of that lack of surge capacity, it may be irrelevant whether all the sick cases arrive at once or later. If you have (for simplified example) a capacity of 100 ICU beds max after pulling out the stops, and 80 are on average occupied by non-COVID stuff, you can take care of 20 COVID people at a time. Most of these people need a lot of care before they're ready for discharge even from ICU, but if you're talking about 800 people in the area getting critically ill, the number of lives saved by dragging it out over the course of months is ... not that impressive, especially when you consider the low survival odds of coronavirus vent cases in the first place. Wild guess, you save an extra ten. Weigh that against burnout from prolonged strain, and the fact that all those patients are taking attention away from non-COVID emergencies which accumulate at the normal rate, and you may wind up at a wash or net negative, considering only the curve-flattening itself.

    There is the buying time argument, but my experience with our pharmaceutical supply chain is that we really aren't positioned to churn out new therapies in the time frame indicated, even if the bureaucracy gets out of the way. I don't know about the medical devices market, but you need trained staff to run vents, and you can't train people to run vents effectively in the short term. You can get the old RTs out of retirement, but the disease is especially bad to the elderly and there's a PPE shortage so that's scary too. Bottom line, there are a lot of variables in play and it isn't that simple.

    (Somebody mentioned Korea. Korea has a civil service and a population with experience in this situation thanks to SARS, and started aggressive testing early and confining the positives instead of shutting everything down. America is not Korea. We burned through public trust and lots of time by first throwing up lots of barriers to independent testing, then told stupid lies about masks. Now we're finally starting to test, but it's going to be rough. Should we have done what Korea did? Yes. Did we? No. The hammer and the dance and everything else seems beside the point. Here's hoping the summer takes this bastard out and medical research surprises me.)
    1011 1100
    Pyrebound--a free online serial fantasy novel

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    • I always like a nerd's perspective on things.
      להזמין ש‬ל הזבוב, Trained by Ba'al.
      Giuliani 2024.

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      • Good-bye America. You had a good run. Remember to turn off the launch codes when you check out.
        There's nothing wrong with the dream, my friend, the problem lies with the dreamer.

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        • What is a statistical life worth these days anyway? $100-200k per year of life remaining up to a couple of million dollars.

          For the US say 500k-1,000k people saved, $2m a pop, you’d figure $1-2tr as a top end unless I got my orders of magnitude wrong.
          One day Canada will rule the world, and then we'll all be sorry.

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          • I think your estimate of lives saved is vastly overstated (by 5-10X). Assuming you're talking in the US. Also, the median age of a covid victim is 85, implying a lower price per life saved than 2mm

            Originally posted by Dauphin View Post
            What is a statistical life worth these days anyway? $100-200k per year of life remaining up to a couple of million dollars.

            For the US say 500k-1,000k people saved, $2m a pop, you’d figure $1-2tr as a top end unless I got my orders of magnitude wrong.
            My guess is that we're talking about 100k lives saved at a mean of 1mm dollars per, adding up to 100bb, versus economic damages in the trillions
            12-17-10 Mohamed Bouazizi NEVER FORGET
            Stadtluft Macht Frei
            Killing it is the new killing it
            Ultima Ratio Regum

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            • Originally posted by KrazyHorse View Post
              gribby, are you celebrating the death of somebody because he had the temerity to express a point of view different than your own? What an awful thing to do....
              bankers should be shot

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              • Originally posted by giblets View Post

                bankers should be shot
                Thank god I'm not a banker
                12-17-10 Mohamed Bouazizi NEVER FORGET
                Stadtluft Macht Frei
                Killing it is the new killing it
                Ultima Ratio Regum

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                • What people who just count the cost of death are not doing is including the cost of illness and recovery and so on (both the health cost and the lost of work). You might argue that in the simple discussion of flattening the curve, that the integrated area under the curve is the same for "Shelter in Place" and "Mitigation" (I am ignoring "Lockdown" for now, although I think people have agreed that the area under the peak is smaller for "Lockdown"), but I am optimistic and do not believe that will be the case.

                  I think that we will learn about this, become able to do tests and come up with semi-effective treatments. Because of this, I think that the area under the peak will be significantly smaller for "Shelter in Place" than for "Mitigation" (or nothing), and so significantly decrease the total suffering and health costs.

                  I would estimate that suffering and health costs saved by "Shelter in Place" might be trillions, probably more than the cost (the stock market destruction is mostly a phantom... if a cure was invented today that could be on the shelf by April 11, it would mostly be recovered by the end of May).

                  Additionally, KH, you are not including the suffering value of those 100k lives being lost at once, which in the US we likely value at over a trillion. Look at 9/11 and other such national tragedies, there is a multiplier.

                  JM
                  Last edited by Jon Miller; March 25, 2020, 23:10.
                  Jon Miller-
                  I AM.CANADIAN
                  GENERATION 35: The first time you see this, copy it into your sig on any forum and add 1 to the generation. Social experiment.

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                  • Originally posted by Elok View Post
                    Most of these people need a lot of care before they're ready for discharge even from ICU, but if you're talking about 800 people in the area getting critically ill, the number of lives saved by dragging it out over the course of months is ... not that impressive, especially when you consider the low survival odds of coronavirus vent cases in the first place.
                    My understanding is that it is quite good for those under the age of 30 and OK for those 30-50. It doesn't get really bad until you get to the elderly.

                    JM
                    Jon Miller-
                    I AM.CANADIAN
                    GENERATION 35: The first time you see this, copy it into your sig on any forum and add 1 to the generation. Social experiment.

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                      "tout comprendre, c'est tout pardonner"

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                      • Is that for KH?
                        Is it me, or is MOBIUS a horrible person?

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                        • I'm a vegan so my guillotine will only be used for slicing watermelon.
                          "tout comprendre, c'est tout pardonner"

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                          • Originally posted by Jon Miller View Post

                            My understanding is that it is quite good for those under the age of 30 and OK for those 30-50. It doesn't get really bad until you get to the elderly.

                            JM
                            Yes, I know. My numbers are Stetson'ed here, but I live in a modestly populous area (Bay County) with about forty ICU beds between two hospitals, and I could picture us getting five hundred severe patients between all the elderly and vulnerable of the surrounding area. Possibly more, possibly less. My point being that, outside of cases like this, needing an ICU bed is extremely rare and a handful of beds can comfortably serve a pretty large population.
                            Last edited by Elok; March 26, 2020, 09:03. Reason: typo
                            1011 1100
                            Pyrebound--a free online serial fantasy novel

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                            • 3.28 million initial jobless claims last week. 2% of people in work lost their jobs in the past 7 days.

                              Stop the madness. Let it happen.
                              12-17-10 Mohamed Bouazizi NEVER FORGET
                              Stadtluft Macht Frei
                              Killing it is the new killing it
                              Ultima Ratio Regum

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                              • Take care of the unemployed ?
                                "Ceterum censeo Ben esse expellendum."

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