Wot no coronavirus thread? Thread broken - see new thread

[Dinner]

https://youtu.be/b6PI91n2f9o

[giblets]

You are a very stupid man.

Ok racist

[giblets]

https://youtu.be/wfDAcuSMSZo

You think maybe some people stopped paying for cell phone service because quarantine is hurting the economy?

[BeBMan]

.

Just curious - why are yanks buying weapons instead of food and other necessites like toilet paper etc ?

If all ppl shoot a fair amount of virus this thing will be over in no time

[MOBIUS]

Massive jump in serious/critical cases in the US... Here it comes...

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

[BeBMan]

Shredded T-shirts no substitute for toilet paper; critical sewer spill averted

[Uncle Sparky]

I am currently participating in hook up culture. Yesterday, I hooked up my VCR, and today I might hook up my Super Nintendo!

[KrazyHorse]

Andrew Cuomo, today:

Probably "hundreds of thousands of people" have already had Covid-19, didn't know they had it, and recovered. Should be tested for antibodies so they could go back to work and keep the economy going

Containment failed a month ago. The US is already deep into the exponential growth phase. Peak infections probably in about 2 weeks, peak hospitalization a week after that. Overall IFRs of somewhat less than 0.5%, deaths (in the US) of 500k or so. NOTHING WE'VE DONE IN TERMS OF SOCIAL DISTANCING OR SHELTERING IN PLACE WILL HAVE MADE A DIFFERENCE TO THE FINAL OUTCOME. R0 estimates keep creeping upward (4.0 as of most recent, best estimate), fatality rates creeping downward.

Italy is at peak. An essentially uncontained pandemic has killed 6000 people, will kill another 10000, and there is nothing that could have been done. They shut the barn doors after the horses bolted, the same as everybody else. Chinese case and death rates are fabrications. Taiwan and Singapore will suffer the exact same fate in 6 months because their population hasn't gotten natural immunity.

You try containing a virus with an R0 of 4.0 and no known vaccine. Good ****ing luck.

[Uncle Sparky]

BECAUSE THE US did a crappy job of sheltering and social distancing. Period. You failed the first part because your joker president said it was a hoax, and way too many Americans believe they are invulnerable. 50,000,000 died world wide of the Spanish flu... I bet you a nickel the US alone will beat that with COVID 19. KH, you should go to a nice buffet, then maybe a gun show!

[KrazyHorse]

Yes, the Europeans have done such a spectacular job of testing and containment that every major European country outside Germany has both:

1) a far higher number of deaths per capita
2) much poorer detection rates

France, Spain, the UK, Netherlands, Belgium, Italy, Austria, Denmark, Switzerland....

The only effective government action thus far has come from Singapore, Korea and Taiwan. Furthermore, it won't actually matter because they'll just catch it a few months later.

This is not the spanish flu, you ****ing simpleton. It's got a tenth the mortality rate and twice the infectiousness. The proper response is to protect the vulnerable, take steps to increase ICU capacity and let the rest of the population catch it as quickly as possible with as little disruption to every day activity as possible.

[Aeson]

Wouldnt R0 ~4, IFR ~0.5% mean:

US deaths = 320m * 0.75 * 0.005 = 1.2m
Italy deaths = 60m * 0.75 * 0.005 = 225k

?

[ZEE]

I agree with Braindead.

[Ted Striker]

Andrew Cuomo, today:

Probably "hundreds of thousands of people" have already had Covid-19, didn't know they had it, and recovered. Should be tested for antibodies so they could go back to work and keep the economy going

Containment failed a month ago. The US is already deep into the exponential growth phase. Peak infections probably in about 2 weeks, peak hospitalization a week after that. Overall IFRs of somewhat less than 0.5%, deaths (in the US) of 500k or so. NOTHING WE'VE DONE IN TERMS OF SOCIAL DISTANCING OR SHELTERING IN PLACE WILL HAVE MADE A DIFFERENCE TO THE FINAL OUTCOME. R0 estimates keep creeping upward (4.0 as of most recent, best estimate), fatality rates creeping downward.

Italy is at peak. An essentially uncontained pandemic has killed 6000 people, will kill another 10000, and there is nothing that could have been done. They shut the barn doors after the horses bolted, the same as everybody else. Chinese case and death rates are fabrications. Taiwan and Singapore will suffer the exact same fate in 6 months because their population hasn't gotten natural immunity.

You try containing a virus with an R0 of 4.0 and no known vaccine. Good ****ing luck.

Until he has the antibody tests he's literally guessing.

First word - "probably."

What? I know leaders have to make tough decisions but I'm not placing much faith in a "probably"

[KrazyHorse]

Wouldnt R0 ~4, IFR ~0.5% mean:

US deaths = 320m * 0.75 * 0.005 = 1.2m
Italy deaths = 60m * 0.75 * 0.005 = 225k

?

R0 of 4 is unlikely to mean that 75% actually get it. More likely < 50% first round as populations don't actually mix uniformly
Furthermore the higher R0 is realized to be the lower the actual IFR is likely to be - my best estimate of IFR has dropped somewhat (to 0.3% or so)

I'm currently working on an estimate to put an upper bound on IFR given demographics of deaths vs population and an assumption that everybody who has caught the disease in the top age bucket has been diagnosed (i.e. that the observed fatality rate in those 80+ of about 10% is accurate)

[Uncle Sparky]

Underlying conditions that contribute to death include obesity. The US will have tens of millions of deaths, and Trump (or his successor) can claim a big win! Meanwhile KH, do YOUR part and roll around in medical waste.

[Uncle Sparky]

Still the case in 2020 America -

[Dauphin]

First person I know to die from COVID-19. 39 years old. No underlying except asthma to my knowledge. I didn’t know them well (friend of friend) but still jars a little.

[Uncle Sparky]

The first one I knew to die of COVID-19 was a musician, age 51, who had beaten cancer over 10 years ago, and was considered healthy.