Originally posted by ZEE
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Originally posted by Dinner View PostThe point is it is entirely avoidable but the EC must stop making demands which the other side simply cannot and will not accept (like the backstop which traps the EU into the customs union forever). Yes, the EU is going to suffer greatly because of Juncker's arrogance and incompetence. That article is very, very factually correct. The numbers are real and cannot be hand waved away.
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The point is it is entirely avoidable but the EC must stop making demands which the other side simply cannot and will not accept (like the backstop which traps the EU into the customs union forever). Yes, the EU is going to suffer greatly because of Juncker's arrogance and incompetence. That article is very, very factually correct. The numbers are real and cannot be hand waved away.
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Originally posted by Dinner View Posthttps://www.forbes.com/sites/stephen.../#21658f223bf3
A great article. This is going to hurt the EU a lot, I mean really a lot. Yes, it will also hurt the UK but look at what percentage of EU 27 exports goes to the UK vs the other way around. Talk about the EC cutting off its own nose. The UK is rich enough, educated enough, and prosperous enough to survive the shock but there are many in the EU who are not and who will take a big hit. It doesn't have to be this way but the Eurocrats are determined that it must and so they need to be blamed for it.
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The European Union have been so arrogant and disrespectful of the UK they risk a "No-Deal" Brexit that will harm all parties. Given the size of the UK cf. Ireland, the "Backstop" barrier makes no sense.
A great article. This is going to hurt the EU a lot, I mean really a lot. Yes, it will also hurt the UK but look at what percentage of EU 27 exports goes to the UK vs the other way around. Talk about the EC cutting off its own nose. The UK is rich enough, educated enough, and prosperous enough to survive the shock but there are many in the EU who are not and who will take a big hit. It doesn't have to be this way but the Eurocrats are determined that it must and so they need to be blamed for it.
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Oerdin, UK is not an indispensable cornerstone of the EU. If they leave it's the UK that will be hurt beyond their worst fantasies. EU without UK will work just fine.
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They will take no deal as Parliament has already said they won't agree to the backstop. Now it is a question of if the EU is willing to limit its own damages in order to save its financial bacon or not because no deal means no divorce payment. The EU could easily drop the backstop and then the deal would likely pass and it is certainly in their interest to do so though I still wouldn't agree to anything which places nonBritish courts in charge of British people. Parliament would probably trade that away though.
One thing is certain and that is all of you are going to have to pay a whole lot more if the UK doesn't get a deal good enough to sign (and it doesn't yet).
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Originally posted by Dauphin View Post
The U.K. will call the EUs bluff. They will not put up a border check in NI. It just won’t happen.
Paliament won’t approve any payments to the EU either, without a quid pro quo.
These are two bargaining chips that the U.K. can play, and it will be up to the EU to decide if carrot or stick is the way to respond. I don’t think a stick will achieve anything in the current climate.
Well, I forgot the last option - a new election that cancels the exit, which of course would be the best, but unlikely since it would cause a lot of pain in the elder generations of the UK population.Last edited by BlackCat; December 21, 2018, 20:44.
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Originally posted by BlackCat View Post
Are you seriously claiming that UK won't set up customs ? Hey, why are there customs posts between USA and Mexico ? Do you really believe that UK can say "we won't want to have custom points to EU" ???? What fantasy world do you live in ?
You are totally wrong - no matter whether its a soft or hard brexit, the UK can in no way deny to pay what they owe.
Paliament won’t approve any payments to the EU either, without a quid pro quo.
These are two bargaining chips that the U.K. can play, and it will be up to the EU to decide if carrot or stick is the way to respond. I don’t think a stick will achieve anything in the current climate.
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Originally posted by Bereta_Eder View PostAlso dinner's "estimate" that "may will convince trump to impose tarrifs to the EU" because reasons and so the EU "will change its tune" constitutes a whole new level of alternative reality, practically unapprochable by sane people
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Trump is a narcissist who doesn't listen to anyone besides Putin, there is no way May could talk him into bullying the EU for her
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Also dinner's "estimate" that "may will convince trump to impose tarrifs to the EU" because reasons and so the EU "will change its tune" constitutes a whole new level of alternative reality, practically unapprochable by sane people
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