Brexit divorce deal

[Broken_Erika]

increase your intelligence

Intelligence is overrated!

[Bereta_Eder]

pay your debts

increase your intelligence

[Dinner]

Go ahead. Explain.

[BlackCat]

One thing people did get right is that a large percentage of the impact will fall on the financial industry as the EU is extremely protectionist but the companies themselves have ways to get around it and their HQs will remain in London so the companies themselves won't really be hurt badly and the only thing that will change is where their employees work. For the EU's part it will all face higher costs for every financial service transaction so that will be a drag for it.

This is pure BS.

[Dinner]

They are supposedly looking at 1.9% to 4.9% less GDP in 10 years if they do nothing. I suspect they will actually do a few things which can change those decade from now numbers. It will still be a hit but compared to the cost of say the 2008 financial crisis about 1/4th-1/5th the impact. Again. This is assuming they do nothing else for a whole decade such as secure other new trade agreements or change regulations or tax rates in order to spur increased economic growth.

One thing people did get right is that a large percentage of the impact will fall on the financial industry as the EU is extremely protectionist but the companies themselves have ways to get around it and their HQs will remain in London so the companies themselves won't really be hurt badly and the only thing that will change is where their employees work. For the EU's part it will all face higher costs for every financial service transaction so that will be a drag for it.

[spambot]

pay your debts

[Bereta_Eder]

The UK is frecked and it is obvious that this small irrational knee jerk island will go down in flames despite the ferverous efforts of the EU to save it. Now. If there was a leadership with vision in the Greek helm, a country ten times smarter than the UK as even recent history shows, then Greece would wait until their indeed was a brexit agreement. Then, it would publicly state that it would unilateraliy veto the agreement upon consition that the parhenon marble be returned. The whole of Europe would cheer such a demand as valiant and just and it would be a strong kick on the teeth of the british colonial thieves and scoundrels. And then we can be friends, no problem.

[Bereta_Eder]

Ok, I didn't read all that but I think it's safe to conclude that the UK is frecked. I still believe that demanding the parthenon marbles is a nice icing on the cake though. If dinner is for the UK it means it is good for humanity that humanity isn't. And it isn't.

[pchang]

I think Ireland will be allowed to do what they wish with regards to the border. As for the divorce payment, the EU could sue for it. If they win, then the EU can start the process of seizing UK assets.

[pchang]

Even by the article numbers, EU will be hurt less than 1/2 the hurt to the UK.

[Proteus_MST]

Trade with the UK accounts for a small percentage of EU GDP. Trade with the EU accounts for a much larger percentage of UK GDP.

The linked analysis completely misses this. That the EU exports more to the UK than vice versa in absolute terms is irrelevant when considering the impact on both. You can drill down by country - Germany will be hardest hit, but some countries just won’t care.

It also will be dependent on industry ...
while some industrries in germany surely will be hit, others will profit.

For the one definitely the financial sector ...
it is to expect that London will lose its appeal as financial powerhouse and lots of banks will move (which surely will hit the UK very hard) ...
with Frankfurt and a few other cities in ther EU strongly profiting.
But also other industries might profit which, at the moment, have a strong competition by goods imported from the UK

[Dauphin]

https://www.forbes.com/sites/stephen.../#21658f223bf3

A great article. This is going to hurt the EU a lot, I mean really a lot. Yes, it will also hurt the UK but look at what percentage of EU 27 exports goes to the UK vs the other way around. Talk about the EC cutting off its own nose. The UK is rich enough, educated enough, and prosperous enough to survive the shock but there are many in the EU who are not and who will take a big hit. It doesn't have to be this way but the Eurocrats are determined that it must and so they need to be blamed for it.

Trade with the UK accounts for a small percentage of EU GDP. Trade with the EU accounts for a much larger percentage of UK GDP.

The linked analysis completely misses this. That the EU exports more to the UK than vice versa in absolute terms is irrelevant when considering the impact on both. You can drill down by country - Germany will be hardest hit, but some countries just won’t care.

[Dauphin]

AFAIK then the negotiations are over at it 's the UK that has to choose between the May deal or no deal. I haven't heard about any carrot/stick situation.

Well, I forgot the last option - a new election that cancels the exit, which of course would be the best, but unlikely since it would cause a lot of pain in the elder generations of the UK population.

I’m referring to a no deal situation where the Uk pays no dues and puts up no border. If, in the aftermath, the EU wants the Uk to stump up or Ireland to have a hard border, they need to do something - the UK won’t do either unless enticed or coerced.

[Dinner]

They are about to have many fewer useful capabilities due to their own arrogance and incompetence. It is all avoidable but Junckers is just too much of a piece of **** to do the obviously right thing.

[pchang]

Yes. Too bad EU countries do not have the capability to create useful companies such as Google.