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  • BlackCat
    replied
    Originally posted by Dinner View Post
    The point is it is entirely avoidable but the EC must stop making demands which the other side simply cannot and will not accept (like the backstop which traps the EU into the customs union forever). Yes, the EU is going to suffer greatly because of Juncker's arrogance and incompetence. That article is very, very factually correct. The numbers are real and cannot be hand waved away.
    More BS. if the UK want to leave it's their choice an they must accept the unavoidable terms. The article is totally wrong about the facts unless you are living in a fantasy world.

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  • Dinner
    replied
    The point is it is entirely avoidable but the EC must stop making demands which the other side simply cannot and will not accept (like the backstop which traps the EU into the customs union forever). Yes, the EU is going to suffer greatly because of Juncker's arrogance and incompetence. That article is very, very factually correct. The numbers are real and cannot be hand waved away.

    Leave a comment:


  • BlackCat
    replied
    Originally posted by Dinner View Post
    https://www.forbes.com/sites/stephen.../#21658f223bf3

    A great article. This is going to hurt the EU a lot, I mean really a lot. Yes, it will also hurt the UK but look at what percentage of EU 27 exports goes to the UK vs the other way around. Talk about the EC cutting off its own nose. The UK is rich enough, educated enough, and prosperous enough to survive the shock but there are many in the EU who are not and who will take a big hit. It doesn't have to be this way but the Eurocrats are determined that it must and so they need to be blamed for it.
    No, that is a piece of pure BS. It's a brexiter that desperately tries to defend a lost cause

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  • Dinner
    replied
    https://www.forbes.com/sites/stephen.../#21658f223bf3

    A great article. This is going to hurt the EU a lot, I mean really a lot. Yes, it will also hurt the UK but look at what percentage of EU 27 exports goes to the UK vs the other way around. Talk about the EC cutting off its own nose. The UK is rich enough, educated enough, and prosperous enough to survive the shock but there are many in the EU who are not and who will take a big hit. It doesn't have to be this way but the Eurocrats are determined that it must and so they need to be blamed for it.

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  • BlackCat
    replied
    Oerdin, UK is not an indispensable cornerstone of the EU. If they leave it's the UK that will be hurt beyond their worst fantasies. EU without UK will work just fine.

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  • Dinner
    replied
    They will take no deal as Parliament has already said they won't agree to the backstop. Now it is a question of if the EU is willing to limit its own damages in order to save its financial bacon or not because no deal means no divorce payment. The EU could easily drop the backstop and then the deal would likely pass and it is certainly in their interest to do so though I still wouldn't agree to anything which places nonBritish courts in charge of British people. Parliament would probably trade that away though.

    One thing is certain and that is all of you are going to have to pay a whole lot more if the UK doesn't get a deal good enough to sign (and it doesn't yet).

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  • BlackCat
    replied
    Originally posted by Dauphin View Post

    The U.K. will call the EUs bluff. They will not put up a border check in NI. It just wonít happen.

    Paliament wonít approve any payments to the EU either, without a quid pro quo.

    These are two bargaining chips that the U.K. can play, and it will be up to the EU to decide if carrot or stick is the way to respond. I donít think a stick will achieve anything in the current climate.
    AFAIK then the negotiations are over at it 's the UK that has to choose between the May deal or no deal. I haven't heard about any carrot/stick situation.

    Well, I forgot the last option - a new election that cancels the exit, which of course would be the best, but unlikely since it would cause a lot of pain in the elder generations of the UK population.
    Last edited by BlackCat; December 21, 2018, 20:44.

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  • Dauphin
    replied
    Originally posted by BlackCat View Post

    Are you seriously claiming that UK won't set up customs ? Hey, why are there customs posts between USA and Mexico ? Do you really believe that UK can say "we won't want to have custom points to EU" ???? What fantasy world do you live in ?



    You are totally wrong - no matter whether its a soft or hard brexit, the UK can in no way deny to pay what they owe.
    The U.K. will call the EUs bluff. They will not put up a border check in NI. It just wonít happen.

    Paliament wonít approve any payments to the EU either, without a quid pro quo.

    These are two bargaining chips that the U.K. can play, and it will be up to the EU to decide if carrot or stick is the way to respond. I donít think a stick will achieve anything in the current climate.

    Leave a comment:


  • BlackCat
    replied
    Originally posted by Bereta_Eder View Post
    Also dinner's "estimate" that "may will convince trump to impose tarrifs to the EU" because reasons and so the EU "will change its tune" constitutes a whole new level of alternative reality, practically unapprochable by sane people
    The real fun stuff is that Trumps tariffs on foreign steel and aluminium may hurt a bit, but the real pain are paid by the americans. What happend when price of foregin materials went went up ? Did the american producers just raise their production to respond to the new demand ? Well, yes, but it was at a price close to the price of foreign materials so what did the american car producers do ? They shut down factories because the price got too high - yay for Trumps trade war

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  • spambot
    replied
    Trump is a narcissist who doesn't listen to anyone besides Putin, there is no way May could talk him into bullying the EU for her

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  • Bereta_Eder
    replied
    Also dinner's "estimate" that "may will convince trump to impose tarrifs to the EU" because reasons and so the EU "will change its tune" constitutes a whole new level of alternative reality, practically unapprochable by sane people

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  • BlackCat
    replied
    Originally posted by Dinner View Post
    The EU is not United and has fault lines all over the place.
    Of course EU isn't united - that is not the purpose of the union. We are not trying to force countries into one model as it happend in the US.

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  • Dinner
    replied
    The EU is not United and has fault lines all over the place.

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  • BlackCat
    replied
    Originally posted by Dinner View Post
    It will be abundantly clear who created the land border when the UK doesn't bother to create customs posts but the EU does force Ireland to.
    Are you seriously claiming that UK won't set up customs ? Hey, why are there customs posts between USA and Mexico ? Do you really believe that UK can say "we won't want to have custom points to EU" ???? What fantasy world do you live in ?

    Team that up with the EC demanding huge increases in money from members because under no deal the UK doesn't have to pay it anything,
    You are totally wrong - no matter whether its a soft or hard brexit, the UK can in no way deny to pay what they owe.

    add in how pissed off the east is over the demands to accept fake refugees, and I'd say the EU is stumbling into yet another crisis.
    Are you seriously claiming that all of these refugees automatically went to UK ?


    Especially when economies start taking a hit all because the EC was too arrogant and incompetent. Hell, Trump wants to tariff the EU anyway so all May needs to do is convince Trump to continue with his own worst instincts and you'll see German industry shitting its pants. In light of all that, yes, I do think the only two heads of state in the EU who matter (Germany anand France) will force the EC to change its tune.
    You really have some special fantasies - do you really sincerely think that german industry will die if they don't have access to the UK Market ???? This is simply hilarious

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  • Bereta_Eder
    replied
    The EU is a gigantic conglomerate of 500 million people and the largest economy on the planet. If it coughs, you'd notice. The eastern states xenophobic governments are giving wway to more rational people seeing that as usualy xenophobia and stealing of the public's money go hand in hand. Immigration is not capable of shaking the EU, it just showcases its continued success. Furthermore, the moronic decistion of the mind addled UK to commit harakiri and become an isolated shunned pariah has a great job in solidifying support for the continuation of the EU project from the nordic and baltic sea to the eastern med.

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