Gathering Storm - correspondence & foreign affairs

[redstar1]

Message forwarded to DeepO.

Just a note. I know it seems that myself and/or Vondrack are taking a lot of the decisions here, and in a sense that might be right.... I think we have the advantage you guys don't have of being able to get online a bit more, my job allows me to and so does Vondracks. I just hope that you understand that when we do something like this it is because time demands it of us. Personally I want every decision made by anyone to be supported by a majority, if not everyone. Unfortunately sometimes things have to be done that require speed. I hope everyone is happy with what we've done here, if not then please speak up. We will slow it down if necessary....

Thanks

[vondrack]

I will chime in and say that redstar1 put it better than I would be able to. To keep the game running, decisions and negotiations need to be done in a matter of hours, not days. I understand that it may sometime look like we are playing our own game, making others observers only...

It is not like that. I (and redstar1, too, I am sure) do my best to "sense" or "feel" what the team wants and use my common sense to figure out what the best way to handle things for Lego is. The very moment you tell me I am losing this ability, I will immediately slow down and wait longer for everybody's input - I hope no decision or proposal has been made so far that would be against what you, guys, would agree with.

This GS CoL problem is a very good example. I am quite sure that GS is now sitting on the save only because of waiting for our response - subject to what we agree upon with them, they will need to adjust their research, approach or not approach GoW, buying or not buying our contact etc. Indirectly forcing them to waste their timecounter time just because we'd need to "consult" would be likely to feed animosity...

[Nimitz]

Ok I'm back on the deal looks good so far and I hope we can cooperate with GS I ask only one thing if we do spheres of infuance keep RP in ours as we have treaty oblogations that must be met and it will keep RP off our back and hopefully in our corner. Oh and on talking to GS for these negotiations Redstar you should keep handling it as your doing fine and they are use to dealing with you for this switching could hurt the work being done.

[redstar1]

redstar1, some preliminary comments (these PMs keep being preliminary, it seems, I'm sorry that I can't wait until I fully got confirmation on my board before replying to you. But timing is critical...)

First of all CoL: We do not hold you responsible for what happened, you couldn't have known they were bound by a treaty to us. As a result, of course we are not going to ask for measures from you, the impact will only be between GoW and GS. I can solemnly swear it is the thruth, though, GoW was not allowed to trade CoL yet, they needed to wait a number of turns before doing that, and they violated that agreement.

The irony is that it was them that asked for the non-whoring clause, which they thought would only have an impact on what they traded to us, because the only one we couldn't negotiate a CoL trade with was legoland, while they were only starting negotiating their tech. So they abused their own rule, for the only shot they had at abusing it... talk about being opportunistic

I fully understand you would rather not have this information leak out, and I presonally respect that. You were not obliged to tell us CoL was part of the GoW deal, so we owe you on this one. However, I don't know if my team will simply 'let it pass', personally I feel that GoW needs to be pointed to their mistake. They know we value honesty in trades above all else, deliberately breaching that trust must have repercussions. What exactly the consequences will be is something GS needs to discuss, but if possible, we will keep you out of it.

It is of course possible to be vague, and ask them "how can it be that legoland is about to start on republic if nobody without GoW has contact with them, and it is highly unlikely legoland could have researched CoL themselves?". This should leave you out of the loop, again, we do not blame you for this.

After discussion on our team, I'll inform you on how we will deal with it (of course, if a certain payment is going to be demanded from GoW, what exactly that payment will be falls under our "negotiations are secret" policy.) I can tell you one thing, this will certainly mean that we would be even more unwilling to pay GoW steep prices for your contact.

On to republic: I hope I'm right that this means you have not started on republic yet, while we have already. I do not know an exact eta for it (there is a scenario we use to more accurately predict these things, so I'll ask), however I'm positive we will get it before turn 89. As said, our research is quite adequate

We have been discussing the options a little, and would like to somehow split research / cost between us, instead of being each other's competitor. Not only would it decrease cost, but it would also make it possible to delay the other teams' transition to republic, giving us a (small) advantage... I can't be more specific on this, I simply don't know how my team will react. I can tell you my preferences, and rest assured that I value your team more then any of the Bobian ones, but I'm biased as I'm your ambassador. I do not want to tell you something which I later have to recall because we can't reach an agreement within our team.

One thing I can say is that in this situation, we will certainly want to have some kind of deal in place between our two teams instead of doing the research twice. I can't say for sure we would value other techs over gold, and I certainly can't comment on whether we will ask to limit who you trade it to. This needs to be discussed in GS before I can respond to that. However, to avoid any loss, please do not start on republic if you are not willing to write of the invested beakers as a loss when we will reach an agreement.

One of the problems here is that we will need the techs to advance to a next age, so somehow, we're going to need to trade for them. I do not know who is researching what in the other teams, but as there are only 3 techs left we need, and 5 teams outside of us, somebody is going to do something double. Add to this that if a war would break out on Bob (in our analysis a very likely scenario), their research is going to slow down, perhaps even onto the point that we'd better research everything ourselves. The only other team which has a shot on doing research relatively undisturbed is Vox, maybe we should include them in a deal for techs.

One rumour we heared was that somebody has been working on construction, but this rumour came in the last days of Lux. We have no possibility checking its validity. If so, Currency might be a good option for you, but again, please do not take this advice too rigourusly, I do not know for sure.

I'll get back to you on this with more precise information, also on when we consider it possible to research republic.

Final comment (for now): please do not take my question on who else you proposed this to the wrong way, again, of course you are allowed to trade anything you want to to anyone, and future techs can be negotiated. However, we quite explicititly did not trade this information to other teams, as we were still investigating if it would be possible to break the current tech-race. We are quite sure that nobody can get the republic before we'll finish it (and your eta confirms this), and we were still brainstorming on how we could benefit most greatly from this. Again, you're most likely the team which poses the least threat to our immediate survival, so we would be happy to get some kind of deal between us going which benefits us both, at the expense of other teams.

My question had two intentions: first of all to find out if you consider us 'special' like we consider you, second it was a half attempt at finding out how many teams we could not trade the republic to if we were going to let it come without a no-whoring clause. It was easier to ask this from you, instead of needing to contact all teams separately, and show our intentions. GS has the reputation of being secretive, and there is some thruth to this...

more later,
kind regards,
DeepO

[redstar1]

DeepO,

No apologies necessary for the preliminary nature of these PM's. I too and coordinating this with the team and playing the timing game as well

Firstly on the CoL matter. We still think things would be best left unsaid, at least for the forseeable future and we would ask you again to consider keeping things under wraps. It is your decision of course and we respect that. If you decide to pursue action then we would be grateful if you could keep us generally informed of what is happening so we can respond correctly if GOW were to confront us about it.

Republic:
Assuming all goes well with our trades then we will start researching Republic immediately. That was the plan of course. It seems fairly secure that you will research it before us so we are happy to put our research plans to other tech. We would certainly appreciate a trade proposal from yourselves on Republic.

Finally, from ourselves, I can assure you that we did not take any questions the wrong way. We appreciate your concerns and we can state that it is not our policy to 'whore' deals around. Of course we discuss deals with anyone prepared to talk but we only make offers on specific deals to specific teams on the basis of our general strategy. From experience we beleive you to do the same, and other teams to perhaps have more of an 'open' trading policy. Any deal that we were to offer you would be a deal only for yourselves and we would not be getting you involved in a 'bidding war'. We appreciate GS' reputation for secrecy and we can certainly identify with it. Be assured that we treat you as you treat us

Redstar1

[vondrack]

Originally posted by redstar1
No apologies necessary for the preliminary nature of these PM's. I too am coordinating this with the team and playing the timing game as well

Just the typo.

Originally posted by redstar1
Firstly on the CoL matter. We still think things would be best left unsaid, at least for the forseeable future and we would ask you again to consider keeping things under wraps. It is your decision of course and we respect that. If you decide to pursue action then we would be grateful if you could keep us generally informed of what is happening so we can respond correctly if GOW were to confront us about it.

Perhaps add a small notice about the DeepO's fine idea on telling GoW "how come Lego proposes a deal on Rep, when they are highly unlikely to have CoL, unless you broke our deal and traded it to them?" This would be something that would definitely keep us out of the whole thing, as GF would be unable to blame us, since he did not inform us about the problem in advance.

Originally posted by redstar1
Republic:
Assuming all goes well with our trades then we will start researching Republic immediately. That was the plan of course. It seems fairly secure that you will research it before us so we are happy to put our research plans to other tech. We would certainly appreciate a trade proposal from yourselves on Republic.

I would go as far as lightly push our own proposal. Considering the situation, I would scrap The Republic and go for Construction instead (we should really find out whether RPers want to pursue the deal with us or not, even if it means pressing them a bit - if they do not agree fast enough, I'd make a deal on Construction with GoW instead and go for Currency+Polytheism ourselves), researching initially at 100% (on condition we sign the deal with RPers, slowing down later, timing the discovery in such a way that we'd discover it shortly before GS discovers Rep, saving cash along the way).

So, my proposal would be:

1) we give them Construction plus whatever cash they ask for one turn before they finish researching Republic
2) they give us Republic on the very turn they discover it, allowing us to trade it to (at least) RPers (maybe to GoW with some sort of a delay) at any time.

Alternatively, we might offer two of the techs they will need to enter medieval times, but no cash (kinda like our planned deal with RPers, but inside out).

This still gives a good degree of freedom for the GS to adjust the deal to their liking (1 tech + cash or 2 techs + no cash).

Originally posted by redstar1
Finally, from ourselves, I can assure you that we did not take any questions the wrong way. We appreciate your concerns and we can state that it is not our policy to 'whore' deals around. Of course we discuss deals with anyone prepared to talk but we only make offers on specific deals to specific teams on the basis of our general strategy. From experience we believe you to do the same, and other teams to perhaps have more of an 'open' trading policy. Any deal that we were to offer you would be a deal only for yourselves and we would not be getting you involved in a 'bidding war'. We appreciate GS' reputation for secrecy and we can certainly identify with it. Be assured that we treat you as you treat us

Dunno about the last sentence... I am sort of cautious telling anyone they are "special" to us. Perhaps I would try something like this:

Speaking of "being special"... having just made our first contact, everybody is "special" to us in a way. Who is going to remain "special", however, depends on who we strike fine deals with... we are pretty flexible and have no really strong ties to any of the teams, so we are likely to find our place in this world only within a couple of turns.

[Kloreep]

I think redstar's paragraph is good; fairly non-committal, since, as I just said in chat, GS has yet to give us much special treatment.

And to your proposal, vondrack.

[Tiberius]

This is becoming complicated.

Certain/highly probable events:
- GS are working already on the Republic, probably could finish it before us
- RP are working on Polytheism, with Monarchy coming next
- ND working on Commerce, will trade it for Polytheism with the RP
- the GoW has presumably just started working on Construction
- we don't know about the Voxes; most probably have some sort of treaty with the GS

So most of the techs, if not all of them, are in progress already. We could maybe beat the GoW on Construction, but what would we trade then with them?
Anything else seems to be futile to start researching now.

The only possible deal would be then:: we research Construction, give it to the GS, receive Republic, give it to the RP, receive Currency + Polytehism, give one of them to the GS. If we do it this way, what are we going to do about the GoW, since we won't have what to trade with them? Do this "split the gold" thing with them, maybe? (give them Construction after we traded it with GS and receive half of the money they made in the meantime?) But then, they will want the Republic as soon as we get it, what the GS won't approve.

[vondrack]

Originally posted by Tiberius
The only possible deal would be then:: we research Construction, give it to the GS, receive Republic, give it to the RP, receive Currency + Polytehism, give one of them to the GS. If we do it this way, what are we going to do about the GoW, since we won't have what to trade with them? Do this "split the gold" thing with them, maybe? (give them Construction after we traded it with GS and receive half of the money they made in the meantime?) But then, they will want the Republic as soon as we get it, what the GS won't approve.

There is no obligation to trade with GoW... if they have nothing to trade, we just tell them: sorry, guys, bad luck. I would probably focus on having only few deals, but have them carefully thought out.

Currently, I can see these scenarios, which are equally acceptable:

1) we shut our own research down completely and get Rep from GS for cash only... trade it to RPers for Curr+Poly and to GoW for Construction

2) we research Construction at less than 100%, saving some cash... we exchange Construction and some cash for Rep with GS... and trade it with RPers for Curr+Poly (no deal with GoW)

3) we research Polytheism & Currency ourselves, exchange them for Rep with GS... trading Rep for Construction with GoW (no deal with RPers, or maybe sell them Rep for cash)

So, what we urgently need to know first is, whether RPers wish to pursue the proposed deal on Republic and on what terms. Nimitz, would you take care of finding out ASAP?

[Tiberius]

No. 2 has the disadvantage that GoW might have Construction before us and whore it around

[vondrack]

Originally posted by vondrack
Currently, I can see these scenarios, which are equally acceptable:

1) we shut our own research down completely and get Rep from GS for cash only... trade it to RPers for Curr+Poly and to GoW for Construction

2) we research Construction at less than 100%, saving some cash... we exchange Construction and some cash for Rep with GS... and trade it with RPers for Curr+Poly (no deal with GoW)

3) we research Polytheism & Currency ourselves, exchange them for Rep with GS... trading Rep for Construction with GoW (no deal with RPers, or maybe sell them Rep for cash)

So, what we urgently need to know first is, whether RPers wish to pursue the proposed deal on Republic and on what terms. Nimitz, would you take care of finding out ASAP?

Ahem... following my morning conversation with Togas, which indicated RPers were unlikely to sign a deal that would go as far as 20 turns into the future, I think I now have an idea how to proceed.

1) forget RPers... they are not playing fair with us (or, at least they do not care about us enough to justify taking special measures in dealing with them).

2) researchable techs to choose from:
Polytheism, cost 12
Currency, cost 16
Construction, cost 20
The Republic, cost 28

3) knowing that RPers are already researching the cheap Polytheism, there is no point is going after the same tech. Once they have it, they will start selling it around and its cost will go down, probably making it available from more than one source.

4) knowing the GoW plans to research Construction, I would let them do so, allowing them to have something to trade with us (we want them to be our good trading partners); they have their cities along rivers, which indicates a reasonable research potential.

5) knowing that ND started in a jungle, unlikely to have a very high research output (plus draining their pop by REXing), I'd go for Currency at 100%. We are likely to beat them to it, trading it (together with some cash) to GoW for their Construction, trading then Curr+Constr to GS for The Republic... getting Polytheism somewhere along the way... possibly even from RPers, that might be happy to have no need to trade for Currency with ND).

6) Currency will allow us to build marketplaces in our core cities, which will significantly increase our research output, further speeding up our research

7) Construction, needed for Aqueducts & Colloseums, will not be needed within at least the next 20 turns, as none of our cities is going to hit pop 6+ sooner. And up to pop 7, we will be able to handle happiness with MP and Dyes.

8) Polytheism allows nothing really special to be built and is needed only to get us to the medieval times... thus my suggestion to leave it for later.

So, to sum this up, I would suggest:

1) to GoW: propose exchanging Construction for Currency + some cash (I would suggest proposing Currency on the turn we discover it, with a no-whoring clause for, say, 20 turns... cash upon the delivery of Construction... or the other way round, their choice)

2) to GS: propose exchanging The Republic for Currency and Construction. Because of the huge research cost difference, suggest balancing the deal by cash or by putting some sort of an (in)exclusivity on the techs being traded - like we would be able to trade Republic to Bobians after some time, or they would not be allowed to trade our techs to anybody, or to Voxes only etc.

3) start researching Currency at 100%

[Tiberius]

1) to GoW: propose exchanging Construction for Currency + some cash (I would suggest proposing Currency on the turn we discover it, with a no-whoring clause for, say, 20 turns

But we know they don't respect such treaties ...

[Tiberius]

Why don't we do it this way:

Make an agreement with the Gow: we research Construction and they put their slider on 0; upon the discovery of Construction, they give us 1/4 of the money they made in the meantime. In the same time, each of us will have exclusivity to trade it on only one continent: they on Bob, we on Estonia. After they trade it with ND, they give us Currency. (it is a good deal for them; they get 2 techs and loads of money; they will need them to upgrade their horses).

Edit:
1. On a second thought, they should give us 1/2 of the money. Construction is more costly than Currecy, plus we both would gain the same 2 techs and the same amount of money. They could maybe get some extra money from ND.
2. Downside: They may not "bite" this, as exclusivity on Bob would mean for them trading constr. with the RP only, while for us exclusivity on Estonia would mean 2 possible trading partners; so they might ask for something extra; more money maybe (2/3 ?) or something else

We trade then Constr+Currency for the Republic with the GS. We don't take money from them, but exclusivity to trade Rep on Bob, after a number of turns. Given the time delay, we should be able to get Monarchy and Polytheism for it.

We get at least 3 techs and some money.

Edit: As pointed out by Radek in the following post, the biggest concern of this plan is making GoW too powerful on Bob. However, at this point, they seem to be the weakest

This is now heavily edited: after the deal, we would warn ND and RP that GoW has loads of money and their UU is approaching. This would slow down very much research on Bob, all of them focusing on a likely war. Also the possibility that one of them would build a medieval wonder would be close to 0. With us becoming Republic and the Bob civs Monarchy, we could gain a significant lead, if the war could be kept somehow balanced.

[vondrack]

Hmmm... not a bad proposal... I would just feel a bit uneasy to help GoW to that much cash. Keep in mind that they are the only team able and likely to go after our land. Load of cash (360 gold) means loads (9) of Warrior to Swordsman upgrades once they touch iron...

As for the difficult to enforce clause... once we find out they broke a treaty with us, we can stomp upon them (in this particular case, a treaty breach would do little harm to us, as the plan does not involve any more "crucial" Currency-related trades with other Bobians).

As of now, we have no idea what the relations between GoW and GS are and what lead GF to breaking that treaty...

[Tiberius]

Opportunity.

Besides, they won't have iron if don't give them, and we can't trade yet.