As of now, I am reading our puzzle as GoW and ND vs RP. With ND as an ally, GoW's iron worries are gone. The fact that both GoW and ND have pursued NAPs may indicate that something is up, and they know it.
OTOH, RP does not seem too fussed about us, and in fact, are demanding rights to do things that would result in war if they pushed the wrong team on the issue. Mark my words, Togas and the boys know they are being provokative with that galley. They don't care. That would lead me to believe that they are not contemplating an offensive war with our super gallies on their long, unguarded flank. If they are not contemplating war, but a 2v1 is coming, that leaves RP the odd civ out.
The target is RP.