You should have named it "new economy" thread.
Since the last one has reached 500, this is the new thread for discussion of all things to do with practical economics.
Brains in gear at all times please.
You should have named it "new economy" thread.
“Now we declare… that the law-making power or the first and real effective source of law is the people or the body of citizens or the prevailing part of the people according to its election or its will expressed in general convention by vote, commanding or deciding that something be done or omitted in regard to human civil acts under penalty or temporal punishment….” (Marsilius of Padua, „Defensor Pacis“, AD 1324)
Actually, I like "GDP, M&A, EBITDA, P/E, NASDAQ, Econo-thread Part III" better
And here is a link to the old thread.
http://apolyton.net/forums/showthrea...89#post1463989
Keep on Civin'
RIP Baron O
Dr Spike, insert a link to the old thread please, makes it easier to look something up there.
[edit] never mind about the link, but the title should be part 12, you're denying a long history here.
Part III ? Isn't it part 12 ?
“Now we declare… that the law-making power or the first and real effective source of law is the people or the body of citizens or the prevailing part of the people according to its election or its will expressed in general convention by vote, commanding or deciding that something be done or omitted in regard to human civil acts under penalty or temporal punishment….” (Marsilius of Padua, „Defensor Pacis“, AD 1324)
Hehe, ok, but although these threads may have started out discussing financial stuff a large percentage of the discussion is on purely economic issues. The title doesn't seem to reflect that. But then, tradition is a powerful force I guess.
So let's try new stuff.Don't be silly. The point is that we have tried lots of things, and what we do now works better than all those things.
You've convinced me that your preaching skills are top-notch, but I'd like to see some arguments.I hope I have succeeded in convincing you all of the worth of imperfect tools like output gaps and NAIRU, and I hope there is none among you that seriously believes in ditching discretionary policy.
DISCLAIMER: the author of the above written texts does not warrant or assume any legal liability or responsibility for any offence and insult; disrespect, arrogance and related forms of demeaning behaviour; discrimination based on race, gender, age, income class, body mass, living area, political voting-record, football fan-ship and musical preference; insensitivity towards material, emotional or spiritual distress; and attempted emotional or financial black-mailing, skirt-chasing or death-threats perceived by the reader of the said written texts.
opps... time to change it againOriginally posted by HershOstropoler
Part III ? Isn't it part 12 ?
Keep on Civin'
RIP Baron O
PART 12, PART 12, PART 12, you infidel!Originally posted by DrSpike
Hehe, ok, but although these threads may have started out discussing financial stuff a large percentage of the discussion is on purely economic issues. The title doesn't seem to reflect that. But then, tradition is a powerful force I guess.
[edit] never mind.
Dan, about the Eurozone's NAIRU, I'm quoting the economist here:
2% in 5 years?Michael Dicks, at Lehman Brothers, estimates that the euro area's structural rate of unemployment (ie, the lowest jobless rate consistent with stable inflation) has fallen to 8% of the labour force, from 10% five years ago.
"Hehe, ok, but although these threads may have started out discussing financial stuff a large percentage of the discussion is on purely economic issues...."
Was a mix from the beginning.
Is Granddaddy still in the archive ?
“Now we declare… that the law-making power or the first and real effective source of law is the people or the body of citizens or the prevailing part of the people according to its election or its will expressed in general convention by vote, commanding or deciding that something be done or omitted in regard to human civil acts under penalty or temporal punishment….” (Marsilius of Padua, „Defensor Pacis“, AD 1324)
"2% in 5 years?"
The question mark implies that somehow I know enough to have an opinion about NAIRU.
Nothing could be farther from the truth.
"Is Granddaddy still in the archive ?"
We skipped over a lot of numbers. Just call it "thread inflation".
Granddady might be in the archive. Off Topic is pruned regularly, though, so it probably isn't.
I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891
Ok then, in layman's terms: I'm the one who's right, Spike is the one who's wrong. Gottit?Originally posted by DanS
The question mark implies that somehow I know enough to have an opinion about NAIRU.
Nothing could be farther from the truth.
The original thread wasn't archived AFAIK.We skipped over a lot of numbers. Just call it "thread inflation".
Granddady might be in the archive. Off Topic is pruned regularly, though, so it probably isn't.
Unfortunately Colon's grasp of basic economic concepts is such that he would struggle in a remedial undergraduate class.Originally posted by Colon
Ok then, in layman's terms: I'm the one who's right, Spike is the one who's wrong. Gottit?
Oof.
I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891
Reply hot shot and prove you're capable of debating beyond parroting the handbooks and calling anyone who disagrees with you an inferior being.Think so? The history of economic forecasts and policies based on that is pretty bad. How often hasn't it been that a CB kept increasing the rate while the economy was already entering a downturn? Or that govt passed tax cuts that only had their effect when the economy was already blossoming again?
DISCLAIMER: the author of the above written texts does not warrant or assume any legal liability or responsibility for any offence and insult; disrespect, arrogance and related forms of demeaning behaviour; discrimination based on race, gender, age, income class, body mass, living area, political voting-record, football fan-ship and musical preference; insensitivity towards material, emotional or spiritual distress; and attempted emotional or financial black-mailing, skirt-chasing or death-threats perceived by the reader of the said written texts.
And another thing, if you such an intellectual giant, then how does it come that you can't grasp a simple concept as "irony"?
DISCLAIMER: the author of the above written texts does not warrant or assume any legal liability or responsibility for any offence and insult; disrespect, arrogance and related forms of demeaning behaviour; discrimination based on race, gender, age, income class, body mass, living area, political voting-record, football fan-ship and musical preference; insensitivity towards material, emotional or spiritual distress; and attempted emotional or financial black-mailing, skirt-chasing or death-threats perceived by the reader of the said written texts.
Hehe I know you were just baiting me.......so I responded in kind, as Dan saw.Originally posted by Colon
And another thing, if you such an intellectual giant, then how does it come that you can't grasp a simple concept as "irony"?
I have to say in all seriousness I really do do my best in trying to answer any questions that are asked of me, and to answer them without resorting to technical models, which is very hard at times. I do not know why you imply that this is not the case, since I have spent much time doing what I can to help people understand various concepts, and I have to say it is my belief that for the most part I have succeeded in this.
You are, of course, free to disagree with this, just as you are free to disagree with anything you choose. I have never called you or anyone else an inferior being for disagreeing with me..........though I admit freely your seeming belief that a professional economist possesses no more insight than an intelligent but ultimately unskilled layperson is frustrating at times.
No matter, I shall, as I always have, respond to your question above.
Bullshit.Originally posted by DrSpike
Hehe I know you were just baiting me.......so I responded in kind, as Dan saw.
Insulting someone is one thing, but not having the guts to admit it just makes you look pathetic.
And quit the irrelevant blathering, you're just clogging up bandwidth.
This is the first time I've ever clicked on an econo-thread, so help the newbie. Are fights compulsory?
The genesis of the "evil Finn" concept- Evil, evil Finland
BTW, Dan, have you received my mail re Japan and another mail I sent a couple of hours ago re car manufacturing?
Honestly, I thought it was all in good fun. But my brain has trouble discerning, when we get to ^3.
Colon: Re the financing, I got that one. But the Japan one I still don't have in my possession.
I came upon a barroom full of bad Salon pictures in which men with hats on the backs of their heads were wolfing food from a counter. It was the institution of the "free lunch" I had struck. You paid for a drink and got as much as you wanted to eat. For something less than a rupee a day a man can feed himself sumptuously in San Francisco, even though he be a bankrupt. Remember this if ever you are stranded in these parts. ~ Rudyard Kipling, 1891
Well I was in the middle of a response to your query on forecasts, but I have seemingly lost my appetite for debate in this case. I fail to see how your gibe was ironic and mine insulting......but never mind, I shant lose any sleep.Originally posted by Colon
Bullshit.
Insulting someone is one thing, but not having the guts to admit it just makes you look pathetic.
And quit the irrelevant blathering, you're just clogging up bandwidth.
I remain open to discussion with those who wish it......those who don't can carry on repeating their half-truths and misconceptions in an authoritative manner without ever learning how things really are.
DISCLAIMER: the author of the above written texts does not warrant or assume any legal liability or responsibility for any offence and insult; disrespect, arrogance and related forms of demeaning behaviour; discrimination based on race, gender, age, income class, body mass, living area, political voting-record, football fan-ship and musical preference; insensitivity towards material, emotional or spiritual distress; and attempted emotional or financial black-mailing, skirt-chasing or death-threats perceived by the reader of the said written texts.
Hehe no........just an interest in economic issues and the ability to form cogent analyses of said issues. Where do your interests lie?Originally posted by Lazarus and the Gimp
This is the first time I've ever clicked on an econo-thread, so help the newbie. Are fights compulsory?
Colon? Is that you?
Originally posted by Serb:Please, remind me, how exactly and when exactly, Russia bullied its neighbors?
Originally posted by Ted Striker:Go Serb ! :doitnow!:
Originally posted by Pekka:If it was possible to capture the essentials of Sepultura in a dildo, I'd attach it to a bicycle and ride it up your azzes.
In beer and Japanese porn, mainly.Originally posted by DrSpike
Hehe no........just an interest in economic issues and the ability to form cogent analyses of said issues. Where do your interests lie?
Well Japanese porn is like the Japanese deflationary slump - hard to understand, a little frightening, but ultimately fun to 'analyse'.
'Arguing with anonymous strangers on the internet is a sucker's game because they almost always turn out to be - or to be indistinguishable from - self-righteous sixteen year olds possessing infinite amounts of free time.'
- Neal Stephenson, Cryptonomicon
A bit of good news on the US econ front from my local skirmish...
Corporate bonds have been having a record horrible year, even as govy bonds have been the place to be, until about now.
Corps, especially beaten up varietals, have started to rally rally rally, and managers are finally starting to dump treasuries. Two triggers were the HSBC/Household deal and Moody's affirming Ford's ratings. So there is finally a bid for Corps and the narrowing yield spread is bringing companies to the market, allowing them to refinance/raise debt. Improved cap ex budgets should follow and further the econo recovery. Q4 GDP should beat estimates by 100bp or so, even with the deflator accelerating.
Colon! good to see you around again, you rogue. (though I must have missed something between you and DrSpike... heres hoping it blows over.)
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