How about this...
Expansion: Limit the units the civilization can build and use creatunit events to create the better military units. But, to encourage conquest the createunit event creates these units in nearby enemy cities. This will mean the createunit event will only work if you have conquered that city.
Decline: Have some kind of special zero-move defensive unit in the enemy cities furthest away from the human player´s civ (or wherever you want the conquest to end). Once one of these units is killed by a human, the AI civs will receive huge reinforcements.



How about this...




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