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  • #91
    I think you don't realize that we have entered the era of the mop.
    After johnson, that hilarious unscrupulous clown, has been appointed as fireign minister in the UK, it's only a matter of time a similar development happens in the US

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    • #92
      Originally posted by Jon Miller View Post
      78% is not that high. If 78% events always happened that would be very suspicious...

      JM
      Well, that's the thing about million to one chances of something going wrong. They happen nine times out of ten.
      One day Canada will rule the world, and then we'll all be sorry.

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      • #93
        Originally posted by Jon Miller View Post
        It is likely to start problems in the Mideast due to the fact it is a different type of Islam (and that is one of the central problems in the Mideast). But yeah, I worry a lot less about Belgium for example.

        But it is probably not in the top 100 dangerous countries.

        JM
        (Maybe you misunderstood me? I agreed that the US is a far more serious threat to world peace than Iran.)
        I did totally misunderstand you, sorry about that. Thought you were saying Iran was some huge threat.

        As for Belgium though, they're actually a really divided country that could well split up at some point in the near-mid future, so I wouldn't write them off as safe just yet.

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        • #94
          Originally posted by KrazyHorse View Post
          Right, which could be a data point pushing us toward the betfair participants unreasonably discounting polls in favor of views they might not have personal experience with...
          There were polling disparities too, with telephone polling showing a Remain lead, and internet polling (yeah the same polling everyone laughs at) showing them neck and neck. I think Brexit is a reasonable comparison though, because it had the same elements there of most politically astute people assuming one of the options was basically unthinkable. I don't generally trust Betfair anyway mainly for the reason you mention above, but after the Brexit debacle the idea of putting money on the whims of an increasingly erratic western electorate seems foolish.

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          • #95
            It isn't a good comparison though. Two totally different countries with vastly different demographics. And the Presidential election is far more high profile.

            Anyways, after this DNC, I think Hillary will get a major bounce.
            For there is [another] kind of violence, slower but just as deadly, destructive as the shot or the bomb in the night. This is the violence of institutions -- indifference, inaction, and decay. This is the violence that afflicts the poor, that poisons relations between men because their skin has different colors. - Bobby Kennedy (Mindless Menance of Violence)

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            • #96
              If Bernie voters are satisfied, I expect a very good boost. The only question will be how long it is sustained.
              It's almost as if all his overconfident, absolutist assertions were spoonfed to him by a trusted website or subreddit. Sheeple
              RIP Tony Bogey & Baron O

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              • #97
                Originally posted by Giancarlo View Post
                It isn't a good comparison though. Two totally different countries with vastly different demographics. And the Presidential election is far more high profile.
                You mean your way of saying 'that wasn't about 'Murica, so it doesn't matter'? They have very clear similarities connected to a rising wave of populism and anti-establishmentism across the west.

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                • #98
                  I have to agree, the fear of brown immigrants isn't unique to Murica. It stirs up those nationalist feelings.
                  It's almost as if all his overconfident, absolutist assertions were spoonfed to him by a trusted website or subreddit. Sheeple
                  RIP Tony Bogey & Baron O

                  Comment

                  • #99
                    Originally posted by rah View Post
                    If Bernie voters are satisfied, I expect a very good boost. The only question will be how long it is sustained.
                    May be longer than we think and permanent too. And everything seemed more cordial. After they listen to the powerful speeches of Elizabeth, Michelle and Bill... I think they will be swayed. That is the power of persuasion. Bill just hit a bullseye yesterday... powerful even after all these years. Some say he rolled back the years.

                    The FBI is now investigating... The email hack. If it turns out the RNC or any republicans had anything to do with it this could be the worst scandal since Watergate with indictments possible. The Republicans wanted the FBI to do something against Hillary... Lol. This whole hack could backfire royally.
                    For there is [another] kind of violence, slower but just as deadly, destructive as the shot or the bomb in the night. This is the violence of institutions -- indifference, inaction, and decay. This is the violence that afflicts the poor, that poisons relations between men because their skin has different colors. - Bobby Kennedy (Mindless Menance of Violence)

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                    • #100
                      Originally posted by kentonio View Post
                      You mean your way of saying 'that wasn't about 'Murica, so it doesn't matter'? They have very clear similarities connected to a rising wave of populism and anti-establishmentism across the west.
                      Except America has more brown people who vote than the UK. Enough the tilt the election in Hillary's favor. And there is no evidence as to this rising wave of populism. The UK shot itself in the foot and I don't think Americans will want to go down that road.

                      More Trump supporters on here than I can count.

                      Let me tell you something... Democrats have their own form of popular appeal through the three big political pitbulls I mentioned. Luckily we are more diverse than the UK.
                      For there is [another] kind of violence, slower but just as deadly, destructive as the shot or the bomb in the night. This is the violence of institutions -- indifference, inaction, and decay. This is the violence that afflicts the poor, that poisons relations between men because their skin has different colors. - Bobby Kennedy (Mindless Menance of Violence)

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                      • #101
                        I think this election will turn on Trump's tax returns.

                        He just refused to release them (again citing an audit). This will likely be his Waterloo.
                        Apolyton's Grim Reaper 2008, 2010 & 2011
                        RIP lest we forget... SG (2) and LaFayette -- Civ2 Succession Games Brothers-in-Arms

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                        • #102
                          More Trump supporters on here than I can count.
                          I don't think anyone here has come out as a Trump supporter. Considering that there are quite a few proclaimed GOPers here, it's quite telling.
                          It's almost as if all his overconfident, absolutist assertions were spoonfed to him by a trusted website or subreddit. Sheeple
                          RIP Tony Bogey & Baron O

                          Comment

                          • #103
                            Originally posted by -Jrabbit View Post
                            I think this election will turn on Trump's tax returns.

                            He just refused to release them (again citing an audit). This will likely be his Waterloo.
                            I think that could be a factor. Only one candidate has released all of her tax returns (and notice I said her).

                            But I have this feeling the email hack could explode into a major investigation with republicans going down.

                            This is literally a break in. If the GOP had anything to do with it... Game over. Watergate before an election lol.
                            For there is [another] kind of violence, slower but just as deadly, destructive as the shot or the bomb in the night. This is the violence of institutions -- indifference, inaction, and decay. This is the violence that afflicts the poor, that poisons relations between men because their skin has different colors. - Bobby Kennedy (Mindless Menance of Violence)

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                            • #104
                              I doubt those that who is responsible will make any difference. By the time they have anything proven, the election will be over.
                              The damage is already done. To wave it all off and say no real damage is a tad naive. I'll agree that it's probably not a game changer. But some Bernie supporters are going to feel betrayed.
                              It's almost as if all his overconfident, absolutist assertions were spoonfed to him by a trusted website or subreddit. Sheeple
                              RIP Tony Bogey & Baron O

                              Comment

                              • #105
                                Originally posted by rah View Post
                                I doubt those that who is responsible will make any difference. By the time they have anything proven, the election will be over.
                                The damage is already done. To wave it all off and say no real damage is a tad naive. I'll agree that it's probably not a game changer. But some Bernie supporters are going to feel betrayed.
                                I think things will be patched up with Bernie supporters. They certainly won't go to Trump. The investigation could happen during and if any Republicans fall under investigation, it would already backfire on them. Even without indictments occurring yet.

                                I can see this actually working in Hillary's favor and Bernie has started to sway a vast majority of his supporters over to help Hillary's election.

                                I must remind people the 2008 Democratic primaries did get very ugly at times (though not to the degree of an email hack). I think unity will and has already started to happened based on the recent days of the DNC, after the first.

                                Not a game changer at all. In fact again I think it will backfire on republicans.
                                For there is [another] kind of violence, slower but just as deadly, destructive as the shot or the bomb in the night. This is the violence of institutions -- indifference, inaction, and decay. This is the violence that afflicts the poor, that poisons relations between men because their skin has different colors. - Bobby Kennedy (Mindless Menance of Violence)

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