UK Trident vote today

[notyoueither]

well, i'm sure the belgians will feel very silly when russian tanks are rolling through brussels.

Actually, they would...

[Giancarlo]

Russian tanks rolling into Brussels. Lovely fear mongering.

Russia can't even take care of the Chechnens in their own backyard, and are overextended as it is with their operations in Syria.

Russia's economy is in a sharp decline, but somehow they'll skip pass a bunch of NATO European countries that do have large numbers of tanks. I guess they really did develop some sort of teleporting tank.

Edit:

BTW, Russia's economy has been in deep recession for about five quarters.

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/russia/gdp-growth-annual

And growth isn't projected to return any time soon. They have a population crisis, a deep economic recession, a country dependent almost wholly on oil prices and a very low productivity rate. Yet they'll somehow put together a massive invasion of western Europe against countries with armed forces vastly better trained than their own.... yeah. Right.

More on their "depopulation bomb":

http://yaleglobal.yale.edu/content/russian-demographics-perfect-storm

They don't even have people to fill in military ranks anymore.

[notyoueither]

Yes. The same way I'd glass the planet for any other NATO member. That's the only thing Putin and his ilk understand. Undermine that certainty at your own extreme peril.

BTW, why should Yanks care about Newcastle over Tallinn?

[notyoueither]

Russian tanks rolling into Brussels. Lovely fear mongering.

Russia can't even take care of the Chechnens in their own backyard, and are overextended as it is with their operations in Syria.

Russia's economy is in a sharp decline, but somehow they'll skip pass a bunch of NATO European countries that do have large numbers of tanks. I guess they really did develop some sort of teleporting tank.

Edit:

BTW, Russia's economy has been in deep recession for about five quarters.

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/russia/gdp-growth-annual

And growth isn't projected to return any time soon.

Yet they have been on a binge of modernising weapons systems and are led by a man who seems likely to be willing to use them.

And I think they put an exclamation mark on their 'handling' of Chechnya. They obliterated the place and then rebuilt it.

[Giancarlo]

Yet they have been on a binge of modernising weapons systems and are led by a man who seems likely to be willing to use them.

And I think they put an exclamation mark on their 'handling' of Chechnya. They obliterated the place and then rebuilt it.

Yet they don't even have the money to do that anymore with the drop in oil prices. BTW, Iraq is set to see increases in oil exports as government forces seize control of oil producing facilities. That will further put pressure on oil prices and possibly see more declines.

Modernizing? To what extent?

They don't have the capacity to engage in any open war with the west.

[Dauphin]

Open question to the floor:

- All of NATO has abandoned nuclear weapons, but other nuclear powers haven't.
- Russia attacks and invades a NATO country. It seems to be 'fact' that nuclear weapons are not a deterrent to the invasion decision. NATO responds with conventional force.
- Would Russia consider using a tactical nuclear weapon against the conventional forces? Would NATO's lack of nuclear weapons affect the decision?

[Dinner]

Yes yes, and yes.

[BeBMan]

Personally I don't see an open Russian military invasion as feared during the times of the Fulda Gap as most likely. What cannot be ruled out is more of that kind of "hybrid warfare" ****, esp. vs. the Baltic states. It's hard to see how that could end in nuking stuff, but what do I know.

I always thought Putin is too much of a cold-blooded realist who's mostly concerned about improving Russia's position (as well as his own) if needed at the expense of others, but would not start something that could escalate into an all out, large-scale war in Europe.

Otoh there are several points which make you wonder:

- since the Ukraine thing Russia has become rather unpredictable
- as said Putin is often refered to in the media as one of the more cold blooded guys - question remains, how much influence do the more hysteric hardliners have?
- the entire climate of paranoia and hostility fueled by absurd, but effective propaganda - how much are decision-makers affected by it themselves? The best case would be to assume they're in full control of everything, and can just end it as soon it may appear more feasible to them, but it's unclear how much they buy into such stuff themselves
- if you are constantly appealing to crazy nationalist hype you might maneuver yourself into a position where you have to "deliver" on this to meet the expectations of the public, and to keep your own position


/cents

[C0ckney]

Yes. The same way I'd glass the planet for any other NATO member. That's the only thing Putin and his ilk understand. Undermine that certainty at your own extreme peril.

putin of course being a comic book villain and not a rational actor.

Actually, they would...

if it happened, which it won't, so...

[Bereta_Eder]

http://www.nato.int/nato_static_fl20...pr2016-116.pdf

Defence spending in Europe is going up. Especially in the East of Europe.

Belgium is an exception.

The Greeks spend the most as a percentage of GDP after the U.S.

Not because we love NATO. It's because the islands are great for relax.

[Bereta_Eder]

Now with erdogan maybe we can re-initiate the detente agreement for mutual low down of amry expenditure.

I'm sure he's more interested in funding mosqus than tanks in contrast with the previous military dictatorship in Turkey (they had to justify their existence. We were "happy" to oblige. Although, in cotrast with the seljuks, ours was a clear political decision - which left a lot of leeway for "fat". 75% of the humungous greek army expenditure is... salaries)

[Bereta_Eder]

Oh and dinner doesn't give a **** about peace.

He just wants unrest so he can keep the US arms industry going. NATO is the framework.

**** him. Lowlest of the low.

[Bereta_Eder]

BTW erdogan apoligizing to putin and crushing the kemalists which were "upset" for the russian - turkish re-approachment, I hope this doesn't give putin any ideas for any kind of meaningful alliance with turkey.
It would be... bad.

Remember Turkey was allowed to form in its current state just to counter Russia.
This hasn't changed for centuries.

[Giancarlo]

Oh and dinner doesn't give a **** about peace.

He just wants unrest so he can keep the US arms industry going. NATO is the framework.

**** him. Lowlest of the low.

I agree with you, but you could be a bit more respectful about a disagreement.

Russia doesn't have the ability for any open war.

BeBro, I agree with you about Putin, but if he was worried about improving Russia's position he would put more emphasis on its collapsing healthcare system and disintegrating economy. Russia has potential, but he hasn't helped improve long term stability. The high oil prices helped flush the nation with cash, but it was misused. Putin needs a reality check.

[Bereta_Eder]

You are not respectful to a rat.
You give it to your cat for a snack