Watching the fleet sail by. The US set to say f* you to China and sail within the 12 mile limit of these new islands

[Egbert]

China is really digging itself into a hole here. This does surprise me a little.

BEIJING (AP) — China's military will take "all necessary" measures in response to any future U.S. Navy incursions into what it considers its territorial waters around islands in the South China Sea,

I think that means that next time the US does this, China will once again say that they will "take measures".

Then US does it again, China says same thing again and so on.

[Elok]

Only because it's an american forum and not an international one as you think.
We are the exceptions.

That's why when in the russian thread every **** ass ***** was having his field day noone even bated an eyelid.

If we didn't have Ellestar and Serb that thread would have died ages ago. For some reason half this forum just can't get enough zealot-baiting. Separate issue.

[Bereta_Eder]

Not at all.
Concentration affects behavior. Like bacteria.

[Kidlicious]

There are no courts but there are treaties which China is a member of, coincidentally, those treaties say no raised or artificial structures count as far as the 12 nm exclusion zone goes so the Communist Chinese are breaking a treaty they have signed and are just hoping no one calls them on it. It is a decent strategy.

It threatens shipping, they know in any conflict the first thing the US would shut down is imports such as oil so they are currently building the world's largest strategic petroleum reserve in record time plus they are building two pipeline to bring in crude from Russia. This really does blunt the effects of any US blockade. Their export economy would still tank but if they had to they could convert factories to building military supplies and equipment to employ people. That would quickly add massive deficit spending though and their economy would likely still contract so they aren't likely to pull the trigger on a whim. They just want to be in a position where they can if they want to.

It would only be a matter of time before their navy and airforce was put out of action by the US but likely they just want to hold us off long enough to take Taiwan then hope we won't want to spend the blood and treasure booting them out again. I suspect they would also have to deal with protracted resisted center by the Nationalists as well as guarilla warfare in the occupied portions of the island.

Wild cards: China's cyber warfare to knock out infrastructure like power plants, water systems, and sewage systems. If the US was willing to blow up dams in China potentially killing tens of millions and making around 100 million homeless. Their power grid would also be easy to knock out but they could always up the antenna by invading South Korea.

Any invasion of Taiwan would surely fail. Then what are they going to do? They will be cut off from the rest of the world. You might as well call it another Great Leap Forward.

[grumbler]

China is a status quo power. These little barbs in the side of international law and their neighbors (plus the US) are designed for domestic consumption, to show the people that their government is standing up for Chinese "rights." Popular opinion in China is a lot more aggressive than the government, because the average Chinese doesn't understand, IMO, the degree to which China's prosperity depends on foreign good will.

The concern isn't that China will decide to get all aggressive and start a war for Taiwan. The danger is that the Chinese government will overstep itself and place itself in a position where it cannot back down without damaging its own legitimacy. The CCP is horrified by the thought of war, I am sure, but would be even more horrified by any event that would make the people seriously doubt its legitimacy. In China, legitimacy comes from success. Government failure isn't a sign of incompetence or plain bad luck, is a sign of governmental illegitimacy.

[kentonio]

Nailed it.

Also worth mentioning though that much of it is the governments own fault. Like with the UK and EU membership, the Chinese government has used foreign powers (particularly the Japanese) as a way of diverting the public from domestic troubles by firing up nationalist hate. That can be a really tricky genie to put back in the bottle.

[Lorizael]

The CCP is horrified by the thought of war, I am sure, but would be even more horrified by any event that would make the people seriously doubt its legitimacy. In China, legitimacy comes from success. Government failure isn't a sign of incompetence or plain bad luck, is a sign of governmental illegitimacy.

This sounds very much like the simple mandate of heaven idea you learn about during the Chinese unit in your world history course. I never imagined that worked in real life.

[The Mad Monk]

Insofar as recorded Chinese history is real life, that idea is real life.

[Lorizael]

I mean in terms of it being an idea actually believed by the Chinese people.

[Elok]

It's possible that China has some widespread cultural belief that failure to thrive is a sign of divine disfavor in general. I've never been there, IDK. But my gut suspicion is that there, as here, relatively few people really think much about whether the government is "legitimate." In theory, we Americans believe that governments derive their legitimacy from the consent of the governed. In practice, we obey because they're the government, and they've got a lot of guys with guns and handcuffs. We can go years at a stretch without thinking about social contracts or natural rights.

The more ardently nationalistic among us would very likely despise the government if the Chinese military could force it to back down over a border dispute with Mexico, whether they'd heard of the mandate of heaven or not.

[grumbler]

I mean in terms of it being an idea actually believed by the Chinese people.

I believe that the Chinese people have always believed this. Confucian ideas have been officially disavowed by the CCP, but official policies have never determined cultural beliefs. The Chinese still hold Confucian values on family, for instance.